22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
James Harden says, I care a little bit
will gabe start next year
- Thread starter PCHawk
- Start date
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
I've been vocal about just wanting to see them on the court at the same time. Gabe starting in place of, or along side of Woody, I just don't see it. Too risky to have them play too many minutes at the same time. I also just flat out think that Woody will not lose his starting position unless injured. He is going to be a "glue" guy the next two years............... think about playing zone against a bad shooting team with woody gabe white uthoff and gesell. That group could score too!
If there is any justice in the world, he should. I tend to think the only reason Woodbury continues to start over Gabe [despite being a worse rebounder, shot-blocker, P&R defender (Woodbury is competent but he is significantly slower to recover, forcing help defenders to drop into the paint longer and leaving the defense more susceptible to corner 3s), mid-range shooter, and finisher] is that Fran realizes he needs Gabe to cover for McCabe's defensive shortcomings with the second unit.
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
Nope
Game is better by every single metric, which I'll attempt to illustrate with a look at some advanced stats from conference play. (The trends are similar if you include the non-conference schedule, but I wanted to focus on their play against legitimate competition.)
1. Gabe has more than a slight rebounding edge. In conference play, Gabe has a total rebounding rate of 18.3% compared to Woodbury's 12.2%. That is a significant difference. For perspective, the difference in rebounding between Gabe and Woodbury is on par with the difference in rebounding between Woodbury and Jok (5.9%). Also, Gabe has an extremely impressive 16.3% offensive rebounding rate compared to Woodbury's 10.8%, which means he is creating extra possessions.
2. Gabe is the better shot blocker, blocking 6.9% of 2-pointers attempted while he's on the floor compared to Woodbury's 4.9%.
3. Our respective eye tests reach a different conclusion on who is the better all-around defender, but the stats back up my claim that Gabe is better. Interestingly, Gabe has a superior defensive rating (93.3) than Woodbury (94.7, which happens to be the same rating McCabe has). Gabe has also accounted for 0.6 defensive win shares compared to Woodbury's 0.4.
4. Woodbury is not a better shooter. At a simplistic level, Gabe makes free throws at a slightly higher rate, though that's not necessarily a statement of who's better overall. In the absence of shot charts (I have yet to locate a good source for college players), Gabe has a true shooting percentage of 67.3% compared to Woodbury's 57.1%. Sometime players with higher usage rates have hurt by stats like true shooting percentage, so I'd just like to point out that Gabe and Woodbury have almost identical usage rates (18.5 and 18.4).
5. Is Woodbury really a better passer? Admittedly, it's probably the one skillset that I'd have conceded, but Gabe does record an assist on 4.2% of possessions compared to Woodbury's slighly higher 4.9%. At the same time, Gabe turns the ball over half as much as Woodbury (10.3% compared to 21.7%). Maybe Woodbury has a few more nice looking passes, but at what cost?
6. To put Gabe's superiority as an offensive player in perspective, he is sporting a team-high offensive rating of 140.6. In comparison, Woodbury is at 105.8. In terms of "points produced," Gabe is at 81 to Woodbury's 62. Gabe's player efficiency rating is 26.7 compared to Woodbury's 15.0.
7. In terms of overall contribution to winning, Gabe has 1.2 win shares compared to Woodbury's 0.6.
To sum this all up, Gabe is not starting this year, and he may not start next year. It's important to recognize that the decision is made for reasons beyond the relative abilities of Gabe and Woodbury (e.g., balancing strengths and weaknesses of units), since it's pretty clear to me that Gabe is the better player.
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
Good stats, but stats dont always show the whole picture. Im actually at work rather get now, so I can't break down any of your points. Again I say that gabe is a good player. I love having both guys. Woody has played many more minutes aagainst the opponent's starting lineup. Gabe has also played more scrub time throughout the year. Gabe has come on very strong of late, but you guys act like he is the second coming compared to the lowly woodbury. Gabe's stats would change quite a bit with increased minutes against opponent's starting centers
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
It is a bit entertaining to me to see how many people post and complain about Gabe 'not starting'
Gabe has played more minutes than Adam in each of the last three games. 20 total minutes more, to be exact. So what exactly have Adam's 'starts' been worth? Gabe has been outplaying him the last three games for the most part, and Gabe has been playing more than Adam. What's wrong with that?
Gabe has played more minutes than Adam in each of the last three games. 20 total minutes more, to be exact. So what exactly have Adam's 'starts' been worth? Gabe has been outplaying him the last three games for the most part, and Gabe has been playing more than Adam. What's wrong with that?
tweeterhawk
Well-Known Member
Both players have been playing significantly better than at the start of the year and loads better than last year. I'm liking the 1-2 punch at the 5, and I don't really care who gets in the first lick ... wait, let me rephrase that ... the first punch.
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
It seems that some people can't understand the value or idea of the sixth man. The more highly recruited players may have an issue with coming off the bench. Gabe has the mentality to come off the bench and give it his all. He seems to accept his role. Why change it. Woody will not regress, hard to justify yanking his starting role. The point is, who cares. Woody can start and play 10 min to gabe's 30. Fran will sub any time he sees a reason to.
It's hard to find stats that exclude "garbage time." Further, it's not fair to exclude stats that a player records in games that end up being blowouts, since there's no telling how much his player influenced that outcome. As a result, I'll leave that point alone.
I want to discuss your assertion that Gabe's statistical output is a result of playing against bench players. One could also argue that moving from the bench to the starting lineup would help, allowing Gabe to player with more talented teammates, who might be stronger offensive threats (e.g., who draws the defense's attention more: Marble or Oglesby?) or more effective defensive players (e.g., who is a better help defender: Basabe or McCabe?).
In order to examine this point, I've chosen 7 players from the NBA, all PF/C types that have split a season between the starting lineup and the bench. There's no way for you to verify this, but these were the first 7 players that came to mind. Unfortunately, Basketball-Reference.com doesn't show PER36 stats on its "splits" page, which means I can't easily look at their change in production without simply seeing their change of minutes, so I'll be relying on true shooting percentage, usage rates, offensive rating, and defensive rating to gauge the impact. Here are the numbers:
| Player | Role | TS% | USG | ORtg | DRtg |
| Taj Gibson (13-14) | Starter | 52.8 | 22.6 | 107 | 102 |
| Taj Gibson (13-14) | Bench | 52.5 | 22.3 | 100 | 101 |
| Jordan Hill (13-14) | Starter | 58.0 | 19.6 | 116 | 104 |
| Jordan Hill (13-14) | Bench | 55.8 | 18.6 | 111 | 108 |
| Paul Millsap (08-09) | Starter | 58.4 | 20.5 | 117 | 105 |
| Paul Millsap (08-09) | Bench | 56.4 | 19.4 | 113 | 106 |
| Glen Davis (08-09) | Starter | 52.0 | 20.3 | 103 | 113 |
| Glen Davis (08-09) | Bench | 49.1 | 15.9 | 103 | 101 |
| Kris Humphries (10-11) | Starter | 54.4 | 17.3 | 107 | 103 |
| Kris Humphries (10-11) | Bench | 57.7 | 17.6 | 116 | 108 |
| Tyson Chandler (05-06) | Starter | 56.8 | 10.5 | 107 | 100 |
| Tyson Chandler (05-06) | Bench | 56.4 | 10.2 | 104 | 101 |
| Kevin Love (09-10) | Starter | 54.1 | 20.4 | 120 | 110 |
| Kevin Love (09-10) | Bench | 55.4 | 23.7 | 108 | 110 |
Only two of these players saw their shooting efficiency decrease. With the exception of Glen Davis, there was little change to the numbers of possessions the player used, which suggests their roles while on the court likely did not change significantly. Outside of Kris Humphries, each player saw his offensive rating increase (5 players) or stay the same (1 player), perhaps a result of playing with a superior offensive unit. Aside from Glen Davis, the other 6 players saw their defensive ratings improve (lower is better) by moving to the starting lineup. (It's worth noting that Davis moved to the starting lineup when Kevin Garnett was hurt, which undoubtedly impact the Celtics' defensive effectiveness as a whole.)
While this is a relatively small sample size, I think it works to discredit any claim that the production difference between Gabe and Woodbury is a result of Gabe's playing against inferior bench players.
I hope this post wasn't intended for me since I started this thread to discuss if Gabe would start at the 4 NEXT to Woody. Therefore this thread has nothing to do with Adam Woodbury and everything to do with whether or not Fran will slide Gabe over to the 4 to get our best 5 on the floor. Similar to how he slid White to the 3 to get our best 5 on the floor this year. If starting doesn't matter at all like some people say, why did he move White to a different position?
A lot depends on whether Iowa gets Atwood, IMO.
I could see Fran sticking with a more traditional lineup if Atoowd comes to iowa:
PG- Gesell
SG- Oglesby
SF- White
PF- Atwood
C- Woodbury
If Iowa does not get Atwood then it is realistic to see the starting 5 look like this:
PG- Gesell
SG- Oglesby
SF- White
PF- Olaseni
C- Woodbury
I could see Fran sticking with a more traditional lineup if Atoowd comes to iowa:
PG- Gesell
SG- Oglesby
SF- White
PF- Atwood
C- Woodbury
If Iowa does not get Atwood then it is realistic to see the starting 5 look like this:
PG- Gesell
SG- Oglesby
SF- White
PF- Olaseni
C- Woodbury
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
I believe that the competition is driving both gabe and woodys improvement at an accelerated rate. Excited to see next years jump.
I don't think Gabe gets his stats during garbage time. Most of the stats posted were in conference only where there is rarely garbage time. And when there is we have our walk ons in the game. As far as Gabe not playing against the starters goes, its not like other teams do hockey line changes like we do.
The last few games Gabe has been playing his best basketball by far. This thread should be more about "where does his game go from here"? Is this just a hot streak he's on or did the light come on for him and this is going to be the norm for him now? If this is his norm, does he still improve to where he's even better next year? If he does, does Fran tweak positions to get our best lineup on the floor to start the game like he did this year? We've had enough Adam Gabe threads, I was hoping to have one comparing him and other potential starters.
The last few games Gabe has been playing his best basketball by far. This thread should be more about "where does his game go from here"? Is this just a hot streak he's on or did the light come on for him and this is going to be the norm for him now? If this is his norm, does he still improve to where he's even better next year? If he does, does Fran tweak positions to get our best lineup on the floor to start the game like he did this year? We've had enough Adam Gabe threads, I was hoping to have one comparing him and other potential starters.
22hawkeyes
Well-Known Member
First off, I should say that I am not fundamentally against starting Woodbury over Gabe based on the rest of the rotation. The strengths of Gabe and Basabe are too overlapping, I suspect, for them to player their best while playing together. Furthermore, I do not think Woodbury and McCabe would not compliment each other defensively at all.
My issue, if I had one, is that starting Woodbury fundamentally places a cap on Gabe, who is the better player (at this stage) and ought to have the first opportunity to prove he deserves the bulk of the minutes in a given game. Typically, the player that plays more effectively early in the game is the one who gets the minutes that night, and by starting, Woodbury has a greater chance of getting those minutes.
