Why is McNutt only a 4th round projection?

DuffMan said:
From a production standpoint absolutely. Top 5 without a doubt.
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Timmy Chang was once the greatest college quarterback of all time. If you're going to use the statistical argument, well there you go. And on top of that, he wasn't in the top 2-3 in terms of statistics, either. The only stat category in which he finished in the top 10 was TD receptions.

McNutt was very good, but NOT one of the 2-3 best WR's in the college game. Guys that immediately come to mind who are/were better:

Ryan Broyles
Justin Blackmon
Michael Floyd
Alshon Jeffrey
Kendall Wright
Robert Woods
 
DuffMan said:
Is it just B10/Iowa bias?

He's got elite size.
He's got elite production.
He's got elite hands.
He's got solid speed
He's got above average athleticism.

If he played for Bama would he be a 2nd round guy?
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I don't think so.

All of that stuff you say is true (and FTR Solid=Average) but for some reason he just had a hard time separating from elite Cbs, which they all are in the NFL. I think 4th round is about right for him.
 
tm3308 said:
Timmy Chang was once the greatest college quarterback of all time. If you're going to use the statistical argument, well there you go. And on top of that, he wasn't in the top 2-3 in terms of statistics, either. The only stat category in which he finished in the top 10 was TD receptions.

McNutt was very good, but NOT one of the 2-3 best WR's in the college game. Guys that immediately come to mind who are/were better:

Ryan Broyles
Justin Blackmon
Michael Floyd
Alshon Jeffrey
Kendall Wright
Robert Woods
Click to expand...

Jeffrey is very similar to McNutt, I don't think he's any bettter honestly. Kendall Wright has talent but has been called lazy, I think McNutt has more upside.
 
Here's a fact for ya' Duff.
Justin Blackmon
Michael Floyd
Kendall Wright
AJ Jenkins

All WR taken before McNutt. Now for him to be top 5, he will have to be the next WR taken. I'm willing to make a pretty healthy wager that he won't be.

I know you like to play devil's advocate and argue the contrarian position on things. But you are really out on a weak limb here.
 
hawkfarmer said:
Jeffrey is very similar to McNutt, I don't think he's any bettter honestly. Kendall Wright has talent but has been called lazy, I think McNutt has more upside.
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I think Jeffrey has been called Lazy as well. Something you certainly haven't heard about Marvin. NO that's not an offensive lineman wearing #1 that's Alshon.

Alshon-Jeffrey-Is-Fat.jpg
 
DuffMan said:
Honest question, how do you judge someones talent if not by thier on field production and mesurables?
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His measurables aren't elite, no way, no how. And production is totally subjective, completely dependent upon who's lined up across from you. He struggled against the NFL-caliber corners he faced this year. That's not the mark of a 1-2 round WR.

He was also Iowa's only option offensively. That will skew his stats in a hurry. Other receivers played on offenses with more weapons, which means the ball got spread around more than it did at Iowa.

Again, he was very good. But 3-4 round is absolutely reasonable.
 
DuffMan said:
Honest question, how do you judge someones talent if not by thier on field production and mesurables?
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By their ability to produce consistently vs top defensive talent. McNutt was consistently shut down vs good defensive players.
NFL scouts agree with me, apparently. What can I say?:cool:
 
tm3308 said:
Timmy Chang was once the greatest college quarterback of all time. If you're going to use the statistical argument, well there you go. And on top of that, he wasn't in the top 2-3 in terms of statistics, either. The only stat category in which he finished in the top 10 was TD receptions.

McNutt was very good, but NOT one of the 2-3 best WR's in the college game. Guys that immediately come to mind who are/were better:

Ryan Broyles
Justin Blackmon
Michael Floyd
Alshon Jeffrey
Kendall Wright
Robert Woods
Click to expand...

Again look at the college numbers put up by WR's invited to the combine. Factoring out Blackmon (and Wright, forgot about him) who is in a class of his own, McNutt compares favorably to every single person you listed.

McNutt had more yards, TDs, and a much higher YPC average than Floyd.
McNutt had 32 more grabs, 600 more yards, and 4 more TD's than Jeffrey
McNutt had one less catch and 200 more yards than Broyles (who is also comming of season ending ACL injury)
McNutt had more yards receiving that Robert Woods
 
DuffMan said:
Again look at the college numbers put up by WR's invited to the combine. Factoring out Blackmon (and Wright, forgot about him) who is in a class of his own, McNutt compares favorably to every single person you listed.

McNutt had more yards, TDs, and a much higher YPC average than Floyd.
McNutt had 32 more grabs, 600 more yards, and 4 more TD's than Jeffrey
McNutt had one less catch and 200 more yards than Broyles (who is also comming of season ending ACL injury)
McNutt had more yards receiving that Robert Woods
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sure, no one is arguing that. Doesn't mean he's a better pro prospect.
 
hogeye said:
11th in receiving yards
24th in receptions
15th in yards per game
T-7th with 12 others for TD's

If anyone hasn't posted this yet.
Click to expand...

There are roughly 240 starting WR's in college football. I would consider those rankings to be elite.
 
tm3308 said:
His measurables aren't elite, no way, no how. And production is totally subjective, completely dependent upon who's lined up across from you. He struggled against the NFL-caliber corners he faced this year. That's not the mark of a 1-2 round WR.

He was also Iowa's only option offensively. That will skew his stats in a hurry. Other receivers played on offenses with more weapons, which means the ball got spread around more than it did at Iowa.

Again, he was very good. But 3-4 round is absolutely reasonable.
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He's not a 1 for sure. Again if he played in the SEC or B12 he'd be a 2nd or 3rd round guy. I agree he didn't do himself any favors against top notch corners, and that is probably hurting him a bit, but when you look at the big picture, and everything else he brings, it's hard to image how that takes him down to round five (which is where some people have him).
 
1hawkeye1 said:
By their ability to produce consistently vs top defensive talent. McNutt was consistently shut down vs good defensive players.
NFL scouts agree with me, apparently. What can I say?:cool:
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I think that's completely fair. I also think that's a bit over blown.
 
NFL Network has him as the #28 receiver. I think that's a bit low.


Best available:

Randle, Rueben WR 6'4" 210 LSU 86.0

Hill, Stephen WR 6'4" 215 Georgia Tech 86.0

Jeffery, Alshon WR 6'4" 230 South Carolina 84.0

Quick, Brian WR 6'3" 220 Appalachian St. 83.2

Sanu, Mohamed WR 6'2" 211 Rutgers 80.5

Givens, Chris WR 5'11" 198 Wake Forest 80.0

Criner, Juron WR 6'3" 224 Arizona 79.7

Broyles, Ryan WR 5'10" 192 Oklahoma 79.0

Adams, Joe WR 5'11" 179 Arkansas 78.2

Toon, Nick WR 6'2" 215 Wisconsin 77.0

Martin, Keshawn WR 5'11" 192 Michigan St. 76.0
Hilton, T Y WR 5'10" 183 Florida International 74.5
Jones, Marvin WR 6'1" 199 California 74.0

Matthews, Rishard WR 6'0" 212 Nevada 73.5

Cunningham, B.J. WR 6'1" 211 Michigan St. 73.5

Posey, Devier WR 6'1" 211 Ohio St. 71.5

Childs, Greg WR 6'3" 219 Arkansas 71.0

Wylie, Devon WR 5'9" 187 Fresno St. 70.0

Jones, Dwight WR 6'3" 226 North Carolina 69.7

Graham, T J WR 5'11" 188 N.C. State 69.5

Streeter, Tommy WR 6'5" 219 Miami 69.0

Wright, Jarius WR 5'10" 182 Arkansas 68.7

McNutt, Marvin WR 6'3" 216 Iowa
 
DuffMan said:
There are roughly 240 starting WR's in college football. I would consider those rankings to be elite.
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The rankings are even more elite when you compare them to all individuals eligble to compete at the NCAA level.
 
DuffMan said:
Again look at the college numbers put up by WR's invited to the combine. Factoring out Blackmon (and Wright, forgot about him) who is in a class of his own, McNutt compares favorably to every single person you listed.

McNutt had more yards, TDs, and a much higher YPC average than Floyd.
McNutt had 32 more grabs, 600 more yards, and 4 more TD's than Jeffrey
McNutt had one less catch and 200 more yards than Broyles (who is also comming of season ending ACL injury)
McNutt had more yards receiving that Robert Woods
Click to expand...


Solid argument. You have changed my mind. I think that the Jags may have missed the boat with Blackmon.
 
LG210 said:
Solid argument. You have changed my mind. I think that the Jags may have missed the boat with Blackmon.
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Name another receiver who had 9 total TDs against Louisiana Monroe, Tennessee Tech, Purdue and Indiana. That is elite production against high competition.
 
hogeye said:
11th in receiving yards
24th in receptions
15th in yards per game
T-7th with 12 others for TD's

If anyone hasn't posted this yet.
Click to expand...

Those numbers represent a very very very good receiver, bordering on elite. Being top 25 in all the categories and top 15 in three of them is a strong combination that few can match.

How about all the players with 75 catches, 15+ ypc, 10+ TD? ordered by catches.

KWright 108, 15.4, 14
PEdwards 89, 19.7, 20 (Houston, non-BCS schedule)
MWilson 82, 16.9, 12
Marvin 82, 16.0, 12
BJCunningham 79, 16.5, 12
Patton 78, 15.4, 11 (LA Tech, non-BCS schedule)

Just missed:
Harwell 97, 14.7, 9 (Miami[OH], non-BCS schedule)
Givens 83, 16, 9
GRobinson 77, 18.1, 7

http://www.cfbstats.com/2011/leader/national/player/split01/category03/sort04.html

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I can't claim to know where he'll be drafted. But I think he has a high floor (possibly limited ceiling) and will be a solid pro, most likely outperforming his draft position.
 
Last edited:
re: McNutt's "uneven" production

This is another case of Hawkeye fans being overly focused on their own team and its shortcomings. Most guys put up big numbers against weaker competition and struggle against NFL caliber CBs. This is similar to all the crying and whining about JVB on the road when it turns out his road stats "dropoff" is similar to other QBs.

Another item in this vein are all the Hawkeye fans that complain about our "short cornerbacks". I have a news flash: nearly all CBs are "short". There were some short ones taken in the first round of the NFL draft last night, for pete's sake.
 
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