Some are mentioning Iowa is now a dark horse final 4 crasher potentially. I'd love to see it and looking around college hoops with still over a month of season plus BIG tourney (what a blood bath that'll be) to go I guess I can say why not just as much. The right seed with the right bracket and who knows? Now thinks could snowball drastically in either direction from where we are so I don't mean to get the hype train rolling too far too fast. I'm just curious what ya'll think so far on what our ceiling may be.
What's our ceiling?
- Thread starter Hawkfnntn
- Start date
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
It's pretty high if these guys continue this level of play but in a 1 game and winner goes home scenario - it's hard to really put your thumb on. Personally, I think the injuries probably make the Sweet 16 our ceiling and probably that is likely out of reach depending on match up. I think the hype train is a bit out of control, 20 days ago we had a 7 page post on how the season died at Palestra.
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Have to love the roller coaster to watch Iowa sports.
I would say Sweet 16. Its very hard to win neutral site games when you can't depend on your D consistently.
Pretty much every season under Fran, the defensive efficiency has dropped over the last half of the B1G season. Right now Iowa is at #156 unadjusted which is good enough. If he can keep the Hawkeyes at this level of D, I think the ceiling gets higher.
But right now, I'd say Sweet 16 with a loss similar to what we saw at Michigan. Iowa plays hard, Garza flat out dominates, but Iowa's D can't get enough stops against a quality team and loses by low double digits in a very high scoring game.
Pretty much every season under Fran, the defensive efficiency has dropped over the last half of the B1G season. Right now Iowa is at #156 unadjusted which is good enough. If he can keep the Hawkeyes at this level of D, I think the ceiling gets higher.
But right now, I'd say Sweet 16 with a loss similar to what we saw at Michigan. Iowa plays hard, Garza flat out dominates, but Iowa's D can't get enough stops against a quality team and loses by low double digits in a very high scoring game.
1hawkeye1
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure there is a ceiling based on what's happened all over the country this year. Most years this team would best case scenario end up playing a 1 or 2 seed by the sweet 16 and have almost no chance of winning. This year the top teams are so down that we could beat them on a good night or they could even lose before they get to us. It's gunna be such a crap shoot we just have to hope the luck falls on us for a change.
Iowa Sports? Try being an Ohio State fan right now.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I refuse to try to predict what our NCAA Tournament ceiling is. When you can get teams like George Mason, VCU, Butler, etc. make the FF or title game, I'd say most anything could happen. Or you could lose in a first round upset. It's such a crap shoot.
It's really gonna depend IMO on how this team finishes February and March and what kind of NCAA seed it gets. That part scares me, when I think back to past seasons. I hope this year it goes better than it often has in the past.
But get a good enough seed, like 5-6 or better, then Sweet 16 is definitely possible. From there, the brackets can really open up due to upsets, etc. But a 7 seed or lower, and 2nd round is probably about the best case scenario once again, more than likely.
Just have to see how it all unfolds.
It's really gonna depend IMO on how this team finishes February and March and what kind of NCAA seed it gets. That part scares me, when I think back to past seasons. I hope this year it goes better than it often has in the past.
But get a good enough seed, like 5-6 or better, then Sweet 16 is definitely possible. From there, the brackets can really open up due to upsets, etc. But a 7 seed or lower, and 2nd round is probably about the best case scenario once again, more than likely.
Just have to see how it all unfolds.
99topdawg
Well-Known Member
Was going to say the same thing. I wouldn't put a round on it, because if we got to the Sweet 16, for example, is there a team there that we couldn't beat on a given night? Maybe we'll be a 6 playing a 7 coming off an upset, or a 5 playing an 8. Who knows?
Again, that thread had a lot to do with CJ being out for an extended period of time. We are almost 20 games into the season and we've played bad with a healthy CJ one time. There will be plenty more losses this year, but its 2/3 of the way through the season already. It's ok to admit we are pretty good. Threads 3 weeks ago about being nervous about the rest of the season (especially considering the injury) has nothing to do with right now.
The best way to discuss a ceiling for a season is predict how high of a tournament seed we can get. I think 4 seed is about as good as it can get. No matter what happens, Nebraska already cost us one seed line.
Stanzi
Well-Known Member
The NCAA tournament is such a crap shoot. We only lost to Nebraska because of our epically bad shooting that night. It only takes one game of shooting like that and you're out. There are countless times when a no name team gets really hot and knocks off a much better team. I do think this team has as good a chance as any Fran team to make the Sweet 16. Right now that's my hope for this team. Just break the Sweet 16 drought.
I'd seen some Matt Norlander with 247 had mentioned it. David Eicholt on twitter had mentioned Matt having said it I don't know who that is.Final Four? Who said that?!
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Yeah I was just thinking that actually. Hawks keep winning and the seed could get pretty high. Personally I think they'll end up in the 6-7 range barring a meltdown or an incredible run.
Lot of tough games down the stretch so there will be some L's but hopefully those won't hurt our seeding much, if at all.
One game at a time, though. Long way to go.
chucktownhawk
Well-Known Member
Aahh, the 10 or 11 seed trap game, lol. I agree long way to go. I'm just loving watching these guys. No fear
You need to be "lucky" to get to the Final Four. Is Iowa a "lucky" team?
Iowa has a "chance" and that isn't bad.
I think the key is whether Joe Toussaint can grow and mature by the time of the dance, assuming we are invited. He has dynamic potential and Final Four potential as a penetrating guard and bulldog defender.
Iowa has a "chance" and that isn't bad.
I think the key is whether Joe Toussaint can grow and mature by the time of the dance, assuming we are invited. He has dynamic potential and Final Four potential as a penetrating guard and bulldog defender.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
I aint nervous about Iowa being good, I know we are. I don't need to wait and see. My point in all of that was that - We're probably not as good as we've looked the last 2 weeks or so (3 top 25 wins) and we aren't as bad as when we lost to DePaul or Nebraska either. We're likely somewhere in between, which is good enough to dance which to me, is an accomplishment considering the expectations coming into the season.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
They don't play any games on the road in the NCAA tournament FWIW and currently have the best road record in the conference. Plus, they're 2-1 on neutral courts too (I think). Aint no one winning on the road right now, not consistently
Rlesterfan
Well-Known Member
Usually your ceiling is based most on point guard play in college basketball. If you can't take care of the ball against pressure, not much else matters.
Iowa has a true freshman point guard with a strong supporting cast. Joe T's development is the biggest factor between a good and great season.
Iowa has a true freshman point guard with a strong supporting cast. Joe T's development is the biggest factor between a good and great season.
