What makes Iowa offense so predictable?

[guffus]

I have seen people make comments that most opposing defenses know what play the Iowa offense is going to run.

Watching the Utah St game on TV, the TV commentator Mark Helfrich made some interesting comments. I believe Helfrich used to be the OC and head coach for Oregon and the OC for the NFL Bears, so he seems to have a quick eye for figuring out schemes and patterns.

He commented that whenever Iowa ran a play from under center it was almost always a run.

He noticed before a play in the 2nd half that the entire Utah St defense was yelling screen and sure enough Iowa ran a screen.

I am not smart enough to notice these things. So I was wondering, is there something about Iowa's formations that gives away what play Iowa is going to run?

 

[hawkinn3]

It’s more complex than a fan can be aware of but defenses base most of their calls on tendencies. On X down at X yardage what does the other team tend to do? You can narrow this down even more based on formation.

I don’t have the exact numbers but Iowa on 1st and ten with the QB under center is running the ball in almost every instance. Overall we don’t have a lot of variety and it’s fairly easy to predict what we’re going to do.

Good offensive coaches will throw in weird wrinkles all the time just to throw the numbers off because it’s some film guy who does this, not the coach. Some grad assistant in Ames is cataloging every play for Iowa this week, combining with the last several years and gets a report to the coaches.

 

[NCHawker]

I’m not sure that predicting is the issue. The core issue is Iowa does not have the players to get the job done on the Oline. It’s baffling but there it is

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I have seen people make comments that most opposing defenses know what play the Iowa offense is going to run.

Watching the Utah St game on TV, the TV commentator Mark Helfrich made some interesting comments. I believe Helfrich used to be the OC and head coach for Oregon and the OC for the NFL Bears, so he seems to have a quick eye for figuring out schemes and patterns.

He commented that whenever Iowa ran a play from under center it was almost always a run.

He noticed before a play in the 2nd half that the entire Utah St defense was yelling screen and sure enough Iowa ran a screen.

I am not smart enough to notice these things. So I was wondering, is there something about Iowa's formations that gives away what play Iowa is going to run?

More than likely this was on a 3rd and long play and many teams run a screen just to get as many yards as they can with a chance for a gainer. I do remember one 3rd and long for sure that they ran a screen. Wonder if that was the case.

Sometimes they run it knowing they pretty much are going to end up punting. It's a decision based on a long down and where they are on the field. Might not want to risk an interception if at a certain place on the field.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I’m not sure that predicting is the issue. The core issue is Iowa does not have the players to get the job done on the Oline. It’s baffling but there it is

Yep, everything Iowa does comes down to a successful running game. If it ain't going, Iowa struggles.

Fans would notice a remarkable difference in the offense with a competent running game. All of a sudden, the receivers would look more open and the QB would be hitting them. the QB would have less pressure when going back to pass. Fans would be wondering "Wow, where did that come from?". Well, it came from a success running the ball. It all works together but starts with the ability to run the ball.

 

[dagdaj]

With the new clock rules, the game does not favor Kirkball. Certainly not Brianball.
I dunno what the numbers were around the nation, but I gotta believe the number of possessions is down per game.

This and the inability to run the ball are the only two concerns I have.

Brian is the problem. Kirk, I absolutely love and appreciate him should really be looking at a graceful retirement with the softest landing under the new transfer rules. Not sure how to do that. It can and should still be on his terms.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

With the new clock rules, the game does not favor Kirkball. Certainly not Brianball.
I dunno what the numbers were around the nation, but I gotta believe the number of possessions is down per game.

This and the inability to run the ball are the only two concerns I have.

Brian is the problem. Kirk, I absolutely love and appreciate him should really be looking at a graceful retirement with the softest landing under the new transfer rules. Not sure how to do that. It can and should still be on his terms.

Why does it hurt Iowa? Iowa likes to shorten the game and win the TOP. You are going to see teams play much faster on offense to get as many plays in as they can to make up for this. Utah St. did that. I tuned in to Wisconsin and they were playing fast.

I was listening to a sports talk show yesterday and they made the opposite point that it might help Iowa's game because of less plays.

I can't remember that they had stats on how many less plays were on average for a game. It seems like they said it is down an average of 8 plays a game.

To me it would help if Iowa gets up early. If Iowa gets behind and plays catch up, I would think it would be a negative.

What sucks is they is this is shortening the games but they have now added more advertising commercials. They stated this on the talk show. So, people who buy tickets are getting less for entertainment what they are buying when you think about it.

 

[ForeverHawk]

With the new clock rules, the game does not favor Kirkball. Certainly not Brianball.
I dunno what the numbers were around the nation, but I gotta believe the number of possessions is down per game.

This and the inability to run the ball are the only two concerns I have.

Brian is the problem. Kirk, I absolutely love and appreciate him should really be looking at a graceful retirement with the softest landing under the new transfer rules. Not sure how to do that. It can and should still be on his terms.

I think ultimately Kirk is the problem as he has total control over play calls and the conservative offense. He has throttled every OC he has ever had on his staff.

 

[dagdaj]

Why does it hurt Iowa? Iowa likes to shorten the game and win the TOP. You are going to see teams play much faster on offense to get as many plays in as they can to make up for this. Utah St. did that. I tuned in to Wisconsin and they were playing fast.

I was listening to a sports talk show yesterday and they made the opposite point that it might help Iowa's game because of less plays.

I can't remember that they had stats on how many less plays were on average for a game. It seems like they said it is down an average of 8 plays a game.

To me it would help if Iowa gets up early. If Iowa gets behind and plays catch up, I would think it would be a negative.

What sucks is they is this is shortening the games but they have now added more advertising commercials. They stated this on the talk show. So, people who buy tickets are getting less for entertainment what they are buying when you think about it.

I dunno...thinking about it.. I guess it's probably a wash. Just feels like Brian Ferentz teams need every opportunity to score they can get. Then again, Phil Parker teams create the same problem for other teams.

If you get fewer series, it will reward teams that take chances. I mean, 2 ineffective run plays and a sniffed out short yardage pass that results in a 3 and out. Versus a deepish ball on 1 or 2 downs, even with low percentage of success.

I was thinking about that "take chances thread". At first my reaction has been "don't necessarily need to take chances, but they can't keep doing things that haven't worked". Now, though, I'm starting to think that with possible fewer possessions, there's greater reward in taking chances.

If you're only going to score in the low 20s, even a team like Utah St. can get lucky on a few plays and put up points. That could get real dangerous against better teams. Then again, that can happen with or without those rules.

Again, I don't have any data on possessions. The games are long. They could shorten the games without changing rules. I believe halftime is longer than the NFL? Cut media timeouts. Who knows.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I dunno...thinking about it.. I guess it's probably a wash. Just feels like Brian Ferentz teams need every opportunity to score they can get. Then again, Phil Parker teams create the same problem for other teams.

If you get fewer series, it will reward teams that take chances. I mean, 2 ineffective run plays and a sniffed out short yardage pass that results in a 3 and out. Versus a deepish ball on 1 or 2 downs, even with low percentage of success.

I was thinking about that "take chances thread". At first my reaction has been "don't necessarily need to take chances, but they can't keep doing things that haven't worked". Now, though, I'm starting to think that with possible fewer possessions, there's greater reward in taking chances.

If you're only going to score in the low 20s, even a team like Utah St. can get lucky on a few plays and put up points. That could get real dangerous against better teams. Then again, that can happen with or without those rules.

Again, I don't have any data on possessions. The games are long. They could shorten the games without changing rules. I believe halftime is longer than the NFL? Cut media timeouts. Who knows.

Good points. I do think it's very important for teams like Iowa to get on top early. It's nerve-racking when they don't. Valid points about taking more chances sec to the timing rules.

 

[Grady]

I have seen people make comments that most opposing defenses know what play the Iowa offense is going to run.

Watching the Utah St game on TV, the TV commentator Mark Helfrich made some interesting comments. I believe Helfrich used to be the OC and head coach for Oregon and the OC for the NFL Bears, so he seems to have a quick eye for figuring out schemes and patterns.

He commented that whenever Iowa ran a play from under center it was almost always a run.

He noticed before a play in the 2nd half that the entire Utah St defense was yelling screen and sure enough Iowa ran a screen.

I am not smart enough to notice these things. So I was wondering, is there something about Iowa's formations that gives away what play Iowa is going to run?

The most obvious example of this yesterday was when Iowa brought WR #21 into the game, spread him out wide, brought him in motion and McNAmara, under center, handed it off to him on a sprint run to the opposite sideline...successfully. Other than that, #21 played very little. In the 2nd half, they brought in #21 again in the middle of a possession (so very obvious), lined him up on the wide side of the field, and I thought, "surely they won't be so obvious to run the same play, especially since he'd be running toward the short side of the field." But sure enough, they did...this time, unsurprisingly, for no gain.
It was almost laughably predictable.
But I have to say, generally the coaches really opened up the playbook much more than I expected: long passes, middle screens, sprint runs, etc. Gave Iowa State a lot to prepare for.
On the other hand, ISU's QB said they kept things "very vanilla" vs UNI, and their offense next week will look a lot different than vs the Panthers.

 

[guffus]

Brian Ferentz has pretty much said Iowa's offensive strategy is about helping the defense keep the opposing team from scoring. The key to that strategy is limiting the number of possessions the opposing team's offense has against Iowa's defense, because Iowa's defense gets worse as it wears out with each additional pissesion. So keep the clock running and limit the number of turnovers the Iowa offense makes.

The part I don't understand with this strategy is when does the Iowa offense score, , but sometimes the defense takes care of that too.

 

[clim3]

I think teams run the blitz up the gaps off center which is technically a run blitz and we haven’t figured out yet hoe to run against that. Teams have done it for the past few years and we blamed spender but until we figure that out it will be tough sledding I’m afraid

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

I assume someone on our staff does self-scouting regularly to avoid showing tendencies, at least you would think.

That said, I miss the days when everyone in the stadium knew that "zone right" was coming, and we still punched the defense in the mouth and gained seven. For years you knew exactly what was coming from Wisconsin and they still dominated the LOS.

If we are going to be predictable, at least make a statement that you can't stop it anyway.

 

[SCHawkeye2]

I assume someone on our staff does self-scouting regularly to avoid showing tendencies, at least you would think.

That said, I miss the days when everyone in the stadium knew that "zone right" was coming, and we still punched the defense in the mouth and gained seven. For years you knew exactly what was coming from Wisconsin and they still dominated the LOS.

If we are going to be predictable, at least make a statement that you can't stop it anyway.

I think this is a big part of the Iowa offensive problem. Kirk/Brian refuse to adjust the offense to the talent they have (or lack thereof) for several years now.
When we had dominating offensive linemen and running backs like Shonn Greene, Iowa could run the predictable, conservative plays and succeed because of superior talent. Unfortunately, Kirk/Brian continue to run the same offense and plays, without the superior talent, with substantially less success.
The thing I admired about Fry, was he modified his offense to the talent he had for the season. Some years run-heavy, some years pass-heavy depending upon personnel. During the game he modified it further, taking what the defense gave up, whether pass or run.
Kirk stubbornly runs the same offense and plays regardless of personnel, talent or opponent's tactics.

 

[Glass1/2fullguy]

Yep, everything Iowa does comes down to a successful running game. If it ain't going, Iowa struggles.

Fans would notice a remarkable difference in the offense with a competent running game. All of a sudden, the receivers would look more open and the QB would be hitting them. the QB would have less pressure when going back to pass. Fans would be wondering "Wow, where did that come from?". Well, it came from a success running the ball. It all works together but starts with the ability to run the ball.

This. Iowa’s offense can be difficult and unpredictable but only if/when the play action pass is effective. And the play action pass, for the most part, is only effective when a run game has been established. This is why you’ll see Iowa continue to try and run the ball over and over and over again even when it doesn’t seem to be working. But if/when Iowa establishes the run game the LB begin to bite on the play action pass which then opens up lanes and patterns. Iowa’s offense is actually hard to stop when this happens. Problem for Iowa in recent years is they’ve not had an OL that can block well enough to establish a run game to open the play action pass. Therefore the offense has struggled and looked extremely predictable. This was my biggest concern for the remainder of the season after watching the game. I agree w/ others that have said the OL looked improved in pass protection however their run blocking was atrocious. They opened zero running lanes against a DL they should’ve been able to push around. Yes what I’m about to say could definitely be an overreaction cause I thought this was a 10-2 team but if Iowa’s OL can not figure out how to run block this is a 7-5 maybe 8-4 team. Both of which would be unacceptable w/ this schedule. If the OL can get things figured out and they establish a run game then this team goes to Indy.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Iowa's O becomes way more predictable when they struggle to run like they have lately too. We give it away by what formation and personnel we put out there quite a bit. Situationally we just do the same things too often. Iowa's play action and most of what helps Iowa be successful is based on them being able to run the dang ball on their terms. But when your Oline is mediocre (I'm being nice) and your predictable with when you're doing it that makes things problematic.

This O has been a thing for a long time now KF/BF have a ton of tape out there on themselves and as folks like to say they pay those other teams coaches too. The players they have are on schollarship too. Our tendencies are well documented so if Monday morning Qbs like all of us can spot stuff the folks who do it for a living sure as hell are.

Can Cade make up for it by being able to pass significantly better then Petras? End of the yr that's what I think will decide Iowa's success. Iowa's running game is still bad folks. It didn't improve it looks like. I know it was one game but that was our cakewalk. That was supposed to be our name the score game. Everything is on Cades shoulders. His health and how he plays will dictate the season Iowa has. Fair or not it just is.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The most obvious example of this yesterday was when Iowa brought WR #21 into the game, spread him out wide, brought him in motion and McNAmara, under center, handed it off to him on a sprint run to the opposite sideline...successfully. Other than that, #21 played very little. In the 2nd half, they brought in #21 again in the middle of a possession (so very obvious), lined him up on the wide side of the field, and I thought, "surely they won't be so obvious to run the same play, especially since he'd be running toward the short side of the field." But sure enough, they did...this time, unsurprisingly, for no gain.
It was almost laughably predictable.
But I have to say, generally the coaches really opened up the playbook much more than I expected: long passes, middle screens, sprint runs, etc. Gave Iowa State a lot to prepare for.
On the other hand, ISU's QB said they kept things "very vanilla" vs UNI, and their offense next week will look a lot different than vs the Panthers.

But dude, you actually have to create tendencies before you break tendencies. Yes, u show that against Utah St. early in the season. The coaches need to plant that seed then know how to play off that in future games that mean more. Good coaches are way ahead of us internet analysts and coaches.

This. Iowa’s offense can be difficult and unpredictable but only if/when the play action pass is effective. And the play action pass, for the most part, is only effective when a run game has been established. This is why you’ll see Iowa continue to try and run the ball over and over and over again even when it doesn’t seem to be working. But if/when Iowa establishes the run game the LB begin to bite on the play action pass which then opens up lanes and patterns. Iowa’s offense is actually hard to stop when this happens. Problem for Iowa in recent years is they’ve not had an OL that can block well enough to establish a run game to open the play action pass. Therefore the offense has struggled and looked extremely predictable. This was my biggest concern for the remainder of the season after watching the game. I agree w/ others that have said the OL looked improved in pass protection however their run blocking was atrocious. They opened zero running lanes against a DL they should’ve been able to push around. Yes what I’m about to say could definitely be an overreaction cause I thought this was a 10-2 team but if Iowa’s OL can not figure out how to run block this is a 7-5 maybe 8-4 team. Both of which would be unacceptable w/ this schedule. If the OL can get things figured out and they establish a run game then this team goes to Indy.

Yep. Nailed it.

 

[Teddy]

The inability to run block is just a mystery to me. It has to be the line coach.

Were I calling the plays we would pass until that box emptied out and then I'd maybe start running. Iowa should be a pass first offense until teams start backing off the line.

I'm just an old debate coach (Baron of the Nerds) but even I know this. If we were running something that didn't work for a couple of tournaments, we'd be running something else when tournament number 3 rolls around. This very much applies to football.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

This Guy.