I agree that when it all shakes out that if Iowa is undefeated (which I doubt anyway) that they would 99% likely make the playoffs. On the off chance though that Clemenson, LSU/Bama, TCU/Baylor and Notre Dame win out, then a undefeated Iowa would be staying home. If don't see any scenero where a 1 loss ND doesn't make the playoffs.
This is is why the current system is crap. A 1 loss Bama, OSU, Texas, Florida, USC, Notre Dame will never, ever, ever be left out of the playoffs. Whereas a 1 loss Iowa, TCU, Baylor, North Carolina, etc will never ever make the playoffs.