MBB: Iowa at UNI Preview/Prediction | Hawkeye Nation
By Justin VanLaere
This game starts off the battle of the Big Four for the Iowa Hawkeyes, as they travel north to face the UNI Panthers. The Panthers and Hawkeyes will tip-off in the “RMHC Classic presented by Eastern Iowa Elite Chevy Dealers” tonight. This will be another stiff test for the Hawks, similar to that of the Creighton game. Iowa fans are hoping this game doesn’t turn out like the one last month inside The Well.
Game Info
Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3) at Northern Iowa Panthers (7-1)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 126, UNI – 50
REALTIMERPI: Iowa – 185, UNI – 51
CBS RPI: Iowa – N/A, UNI – 4
MASSEY RANKING: Iowa – 184, UNI – 29
Tip Off: Tuesday, December 6th 2011; 7:05 PM CST
Cedar Falls, IA – McLeod Center (6,650)
TV: 7.1, 5.2, 9.2
Radio: AM 600, 1040, and 800. SiriusXM 138.
Iowa leads the series 33-8.
LINE: Iowa is an 8.5 point underdog. Pomeroy predicts Iowa to lose by 9 points.
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Projected Starters
IOWA
PG – Bryce Cartwright, 6’1”, 188 lb, SR
G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 212 lb, SR
G – Eric May, 6’5”, 217 lb, JR
F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, SO
F – Zach McCabe, 6’7”, 232 lb, SO
UNI
G – Anthony James, 6’0″, 175 lb, JR
G – Johnny Moran, 6’1″, 190 lb, SR
G – Deon Mitchell, 6’1″, 190 lb, FR
F – Seth Tuttle, 6’8″, 210 lb, FR
F – Jake Koch, 6’9″, 245 lb, JR
Two contrasting styles will show up inside the McLeod Center. B1G, uptempo, high risk – high reward vs. MVC, slow-it-down, take care of the ball. UNI is coming off a 6 point win over Colorado State, while Iowa just beat Brown by 21 points. Neither team has beaten a premier team yet. In fact, the Hawks and Panthers are 0-3 against the teams in the Top 65 of the Pomeroy Ratings (Iowa lost to Creighton and Clemson; UNI lost to St. Marys).
KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:
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Turn UNI Over. While the Panthers are extremely efficient with their possessions, they are very limited in those afrementioned possessions. They are very “Wisconsin-like” with how deliberate they are with the ball… very similar to Iowa under Lickliter, but much, much, much, much better at it. They are fewer teams in the nation with a slower tempo than UNI; Iowa will need to further limit the number of possessions UNI gets. Iowa has been great at forcing turnovers so far this season, while limiting their own (they rank in the top 10% in the nation in both categories). Freshman Deon Mitchell has a penchant for giving the ball away, while veteran Anthony James goes a terrific job holding onto it.
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Guard the Perimeter. Iowa has not been good at guarding the perimeter since… ever. Several teams have had their best games of the season from the outside against the Hawkeyes. When Iowa gets into their zone, they aren’t quick enough side to side to defend the three. Fran might need to stay primarily M2M in this game and hope his guards can contain the few slashers UNI has. We’ve seen poor shooting teams light up Iowa from the outside, it could get ugly if a good shooting team like UNI gets hot. The Panthers not only shoot the ball well from outside, they get a lot of their points from behind the arc.
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Be the Better Bench. Right now Iowa is getting about 40% of their minutes played from their bench. This has been partly because Coach McCaffery has tried to find the right combination on the floor, but it’s also because Iowa actually has some depth this season. Iowa can comfortably go 9 deep on this team. If they want to run (should they be able to) or if they want to press (guaranteed they will), they’ll need bench help in this one. Like Iowa, UNI can go 9 deep easily on their bench, and even 10 or 11 without much problems. They’ve had role players step up in past games for them, as well.
PREDICTION: Iowa has yet to play in a close game so far this season. All of their wins have been by more than 10 points, while all of their losses have been by more than 15 points – this game could buck that trend. This is a winnable game for the Hawkeyes, especially if we see the Melsahn Basabe from the end of the last year. If Iowa gets that from Mel, and he gets a boost from a couple other players (maybe Marble and Gatens), the Hawkeyes could finally get a win inside the McLeod Center. If not, it could be a long, long night in Cedar Falls for the Hawks, especially if Iowa allows UNI to go off from downtown. Unfortunately, I think the Panthers slow the tempo down to a crawl and shoot the ball much better than Iowa.
FINAL SCORE: Iowa 57, UNI 65
