NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
NW is 40 in the RPI so a road win there would be huge. Hopefully the Hawks can carryover their play from last night.
Tracking Iowa's RPI, KenPom, & Sagarin
- Thread starter NikeHawk21
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NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Ya there is an RPI forecast tool that allows you to go back and change outcomes. It estimated Iowa's RPI at 73 if they would have won those.
Edit: it says if we beat NW we will be up to 91. Only projects a 27% chance of winning at NW.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
It would be a 3 game swing on the RPI as road wins count as 1.5 towards your wins while home losses count as 1.5.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
For RPI calculations it doesn't matter where they rank, all what matters is their record, their opponents record, and grabbing a road win (which counts as 1.5 wins).
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Schedule with current KenPom rankings and my predictions.
@ NW (37) - L
MD (53) - W
@ IL (63) - L
OSU (58) - W
@ RU (141) - W
NE (86) - W
@ MN (34) - L
@ MSU (42) - L
IL (63) - W
IN (28) - W
@ MD (53) - L
@ WI (9) - L
PSU (83) - W
That's 10-8. My prediction back in June was 11-7. And I think we will get 1 upset on the road...out of NW, IL, MN and MD. So I'm still at 11-7...just don't know which L is a W. I think Illinois and NW in that order are the most likely.
@ NW (37) - L
MD (53) - W
@ IL (63) - L
OSU (58) - W
@ RU (141) - W
NE (86) - W
@ MN (34) - L
@ MSU (42) - L
IL (63) - W
IN (28) - W
@ MD (53) - L
@ WI (9) - L
PSU (83) - W
That's 10-8. My prediction back in June was 11-7. And I think we will get 1 upset on the road...out of NW, IL, MN and MD. So I'm still at 11-7...just don't know which L is a W. I think Illinois and NW in that order are the most likely.
ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
Iowa now #70 on KenPom.
ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
NCAA really seems like a longshot, but NIT is a legitimate possibility
Hawkalum2002
Well-Known Member
Remember you can take a look at bracketmatrix.com if you want to take a look at projected seed predictions for the tourney. Spent a lot of time there last year where we briefly were up to the fourth number one seed. No projections for Iowa yet from a single voter, but can see where teams we've played are. Purdue was a six, but will drop after last night. ISU a 9, Michigan first four out, Nebraska some votes. Obviously the updates will start coming more frequently in another week or so.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Going 8-5 the rest of the way might get Iowa on the bubble, that puts Iowa's record at 19-12. Probably need 1, if not 2, wins in the BTT to be a lock.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Fun to play around with, looks like Iowa has to grab a win at either Northwestern, Illinois, or MSU to have any shot at the NCAA tournament. This assumes winning at Rutgers and all the remaining home games. I entered a win against Northwestern in the 2nd round of BTT and a loss against Wisconsin and I got an RPI of 58.
eveningnewsteam
Well-Known Member
Yep. Boy 9-4 would be nice though, and theyre capable of doing it
mopkins
King Kong
That loss to Omaha is going to sting the Hawks all year long
The big ten is weird this year though so who knows what could happen. Its really going to hurt Iowa that they dont play Wisconsin/NW/Indiana/MN twice though. There just aren't enough quality wins left on the schedule.
The big ten is weird this year though so who knows what could happen. Its really going to hurt Iowa that they dont play Wisconsin/NW/Indiana/MN twice though. There just aren't enough quality wins left on the schedule.
It's a lot easier to go 9-4 started today than it was to go 10-4 starting yesterday.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
This is always tricky and very subjective IMO. I think 12-6 and 1-1 gets it done...conference season and BTT. I think 11-7 and 2-1 gets it done. We have gone 8-2 in our last 10 with 3 good wins (ISU, Michigan and Purdue) and 2 acceptable road losses.
It's also quite possible I am erring on the side of caution with my predictions. I find it hard to believe that NW, IL or MN is going to play better than NE did and that game could have gone either way.
I know winning the BTT gets it done! And this year there won't be an Indiana/Purdue or Illinois/NW geographic advantage. We're all headed for the Verizon Center in D.C. This team has the quality depth and shooting to play 4 games in 4 days.
Side Note - I mentioned subjective. Does the Committee want us? We play an exciting style. Jok is the leading Power 5 scorer. And we lost 2 games without Cook...including the Omaha loss. So the Committee can make that bad loss go away if they so choose.
trj
Well-Known Member
Quick math that's 18-13 overall, 10-8 in conference. Let's say they win 2 B1G tourney games and tie for 4th in conference play that really puts them on the bubble. 1 or 2 unexpected wins is huge for this team making the tournament.
A team with 4 freshmen starters that had a bad non conference, then a good conference record is pretty enticing in the commitee's eyes probably.
