Tracking Iowa's RPI, KenPom, & Sagarin

NW is 40 in the RPI so a road win there would be huge. Hopefully the Hawks can carryover their play from last night.
 
Yeah, if we would have won those games we'd be 4-1 (tied for first) and 13-5 overall! Probably mid-to-low 50s on KenPom and Sagarin. Definitely bubble range there. We can win lot of games in our next ten. The back end of the schedule is tough, so we need to make hay now!

Ya there is an RPI forecast tool that allows you to go back and change outcomes. It estimated Iowa's RPI at 73 if they would have won those.

Edit: it says if we beat NW we will be up to 91. Only projects a 27% chance of winning at NW.
 
Yeah, if we would have won those games we'd be 4-1 (tied for first) and 13-5 overall! Probably mid-to-low 50s on KenPom and Sagarin. Definitely bubble range there. We can win lot of games in our next ten. The back end of the schedule is tough, so we need to make hay now!

It would be a 3 game swing on the RPI as road wins count as 1.5 towards your wins while home losses count as 1.5.
 
NW is 40 in the RPI so a road win there would be huge. Hopefully the Hawks can carryover their play from last night.

For RPI calculations it doesn't matter where they rank, all what matters is their record, their opponents record, and grabbing a road win (which counts as 1.5 wins).
 
Schedule with current KenPom rankings and my predictions.

@ NW (37) - L
MD (53) - W
@ IL (63) - L
OSU (58) - W
@ RU (141) - W
NE (86) - W
@ MN (34) - L
@ MSU (42) - L
IL (63) - W
IN (28) - W
@ MD (53) - L
@ WI (9) - L
PSU (83) - W

That's 10-8. My prediction back in June was 11-7. And I think we will get 1 upset on the road...out of NW, IL, MN and MD. So I'm still at 11-7...just don't know which L is a W. I think Illinois and NW in that order are the most likely.
 
How many wins do we need to get an rpi good enough to get us in? I originally thought 11-7 with 1 in the Big 10 tourney bit I don't think that's enough anymore
 
Remember you can take a look at bracketmatrix.com if you want to take a look at projected seed predictions for the tourney. Spent a lot of time there last year where we briefly were up to the fourth number one seed. No projections for Iowa yet from a single voter, but can see where teams we've played are. Purdue was a six, but will drop after last night. ISU a 9, Michigan first four out, Nebraska some votes. Obviously the updates will start coming more frequently in another week or so.
 
How many wins do we need to get an rpi good enough to get us in? I originally thought 11-7 with 1 in the Big 10 tourney bit I don't think that's enough anymore

Going 8-5 the rest of the way might get Iowa on the bubble, that puts Iowa's record at 19-12. Probably need 1, if not 2, wins in the BTT to be a lock.
 

Fun to play around with, looks like Iowa has to grab a win at either Northwestern, Illinois, or MSU to have any shot at the NCAA tournament. This assumes winning at Rutgers and all the remaining home games. I entered a win against Northwestern in the 2nd round of BTT and a loss against Wisconsin and I got an RPI of 58.
 
That loss to Omaha is going to sting the Hawks all year long

The big ten is weird this year though so who knows what could happen. Its really going to hurt Iowa that they dont play Wisconsin/NW/Indiana/MN twice though. There just aren't enough quality wins left on the schedule.
 
I just read an article on espn that said they are going to do away with using the rpi for selecting the tournament.
 
How many wins do we need to get an rpi good enough to get us in? I originally thought 11-7 with 1 in the Big 10 tourney bit I don't think that's enough anymore
This is always tricky and very subjective IMO. I think 12-6 and 1-1 gets it done...conference season and BTT. I think 11-7 and 2-1 gets it done. We have gone 8-2 in our last 10 with 3 good wins (ISU, Michigan and Purdue) and 2 acceptable road losses.

It's also quite possible I am erring on the side of caution with my predictions. I find it hard to believe that NW, IL or MN is going to play better than NE did and that game could have gone either way.

I know winning the BTT gets it done! And this year there won't be an Indiana/Purdue or Illinois/NW geographic advantage. We're all headed for the Verizon Center in D.C. This team has the quality depth and shooting to play 4 games in 4 days.

Side Note - I mentioned subjective. Does the Committee want us? We play an exciting style. Jok is the leading Power 5 scorer. And we lost 2 games without Cook...including the Omaha loss. So the Committee can make that bad loss go away if they so choose.
 
Schedule with current KenPom rankings and my predictions.

@ NW (37) - L
MD (53) - W
@ IL (63) - L
OSU (58) - W
@ RU (141) - W
NE (86) - W
@ MN (34) - L
@ MSU (42) - L
IL (63) - W
IN (28) - W
@ MD (53) - L
@ WI (9) - L
PSU (83) - W

That's 10-8. My prediction back in June was 11-7. And I think we will get 1 upset on the road...out of NW, IL, MN and MD. So I'm still at 11-7...just don't know which L is a W. I think Illinois and NW in that order are the most likely.


Quick math that's 18-13 overall, 10-8 in conference. Let's say they win 2 B1G tourney games and tie for 4th in conference play that really puts them on the bubble. 1 or 2 unexpected wins is huge for this team making the tournament.
 
This is always tricky and very subjective IMO. I think 12-6 and 1-1 gets it done...conference season and BTT. I think 11-7 and 2-1 gets it done. We have gone 8-2 in our last 10 with 3 good wins (ISU, Michigan and Purdue) and 2 acceptable road losses.

It's also quite possible I am erring on the side of caution with my predictions. I find it hard to believe that NW, IL or MN is going to play better than NE did and that game could have gone either way.

I know winning the BTT gets it done! And this year there won't be an Indiana/Purdue or Illinois/NW geographic advantage. We're all headed for the Verizon Center in D.C. This team has the quality depth and shooting to play 4 games in 4 days.

Side Note - I mentioned subjective. Does the Committee want us? We play an exciting style. Jok is the leading Power 5 scorer. And we lost 2 games without Cook...including the Omaha loss. So the Committee can make that bad loss go away if they so choose.

A team with 4 freshmen starters that had a bad non conference, then a good conference record is pretty enticing in the commitee's eyes probably.
 

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