Katz prefaced these rankings saying that they are too early and will change later in this month,when we know who is going pro,and then again after late signees and transfers....just an early look.
I think with the assumptions of certan guys coming out and certain guys signing with certain teams,they make some sense:
1. IU- return everyone of significance from a sweet 16 team,a team that beat Kentucky,and then pushed them as hard as anyone in the tourny. Add to that a top 3 recruting class,and this team is very loaded. Assumptions: Zeller and Watford return.
2. Louisville- return many players from a FF team.
3. KU- Withey,Johnson,Releford,Young, ect return..joined by some top recruits like Perry Ellis. Robinson and Taylor will be gone,but the talent level barely drops.
4. Kentucky- Will lose top 6 players,and this is the only franchise in pro sports that can reload to this level. Wiltjer will return. Harrow,top transfer,become eligible. They have a couple of McDonalds AA signed. Big question..who will they add? Probably top two players in the country in Muhammad,and Noel,and a couple more top 30 guys. They will be back quickly.
5. OSU- could be a reach. Assumption is that Sullinger will leave...if not,then move them up. Thomas returns. So, losses are Buford and Sully. Additons? not much at this point,but Matta will look to add a top 25 player like Ky. Still,they will have Craft,Smith,Thomas,Thompson,Revenol,Williams,Scott,Ross...all top 100 players,returning...and do add a big man in the middle to help replace Sully.
6. Baylor- assumption is that Perry Jones is gone. Quincy Miller? maybe. Acer-gone.
Still, if everyone else returns,they have a ton of talent on that bench,and are bringing in another couple of top 50 recruits.
7. MSU- Lose Green,Thornton and Wood,but return Appling,Trice,Payne,Nix,Dawson,Kearny,and Byrd. Add to that group a great recruiting group...Harris,Valentine,Kaminski,ect. They will have the best frontcourt line in the league.(Breaking news- Nix arrested for DUI,with pot in car,under influence,Izzo saying his status with program in doubt...big blow if he is gone,but I suspect that Izzo will keep him...if gone,will drop them).
8. Michigan- Have seen them at #2 in another rating....that is how loaded they are. Losing Smotryx and Brundidge knocks them back a bit. Assumption- Burke stays.
So, Burke,Hardaway,Morgan are joined by Glenn Robinson III,and Mitch McGary which would be a dynamite starting group right there. Add in the canadian kid,and Horford..and they have a nice rotation,if a bit thin.
21. Wisconsin. - I thought they would drop off losing NBA starter Leuer,and 4 yr starter Nankavil....did not happen. So, losing Taylor and Wilson will not wipe them out either. Gasser,Brust,Bergrenn,Brueswitz,Evans,Kaminsky,Jackson return,joined by redshirt frosh Marshall and Uthoff,and superfrosh Dekker. Marshall is a very quick distributing pg out of chicago who will be very good. Dekker is early favorite for FOY.
Evans was coming on gangbusters late in the year. Bergrenn is just good.
Wis will challenge for top 4 in the league,as usual,and will be a sweet 16 team,minimum,again.
As for the rest of the big ten...
NW- return 5 guys who have started,and all shoot close to or better than 40% from the arc....and will be joined by a mature big man transfer from TCU and a redshirt frosh top 100 player in Depps. Sound like a team headed down? Not really. Same old aggravating NW,who will beat some top half teams.
Minny- If Mbakwe returns,could be a sleeper contender in the league. Played great in the NIT,with all underclassmen. Hollins could be among best at pg. Williams is all league contender at forward. Mbakwe was all league preseason this year. Adding some depth. Dangerous.
PU- better recruiting class than Iowa coming in,but big losses. Drop just behind the Hawks.
Ill- new coach, no meyers leonard, small recruiting class, young team,with talent..total wildcard,but keep them down below hawks.
I think it will come down to Iowa, Minny and NW for the coveted # 6 and #7 seeds in the Big Ten,which probably will be NCAA bids with the Big Ten again the best league in the country.