TJ is gone

[NikeHawk21]

If you take a look at the TE’s drafted in the top 2 rounds over the last 4 years (10 players), not a single one has made the pro bowl.

Point being at a certain point you have to wonder if GM’s will start to question whether they are going to get the return on a top 2 round pick if they go with a TE.

To compound this potential issue for TE prospects is the fact that TEs rarely get selected in the top 15. Dating back to 2010 I only found one TE drafted in the top 15 and that was Eric Ebron at 10. (Ebron had a great year with the Colts this year, but in no way did the Lions get #10 value out of him).

So cross out the top 15 picks and that leaves you with roughly 50 picks available if your goal is to go in the top 2 rounds.

The next barrier here is there are likely only a handful of teams looking for a TE in the early rounds.

Can probably cross off these teams:
-Bears (no picks / have 2 TEs)
-Eagles (have two TEs)
-Chiefs (Kelce)
-49ers (Kittle)
-Ravens (drafted 2 in top 3 rounds last year)

Unlikely to get TE:
-Browns (Njoku)
-Giants (Engram)
-Buccaneers (Howard)
-Vikings (Rudolph)
-Colts (Ebron)

So likely cross off basically 1/3 of the teams, which cuts that 50 potential picks number. Add to that the fact that this is supposedly a very strong TE class it’s going to be tough. My guess is a couple TEs who think they are top 2 round material are going to fall to the 3rd or 4th. Hopefully it’s not T.J. or Noah.

 

[hawkeyesgonewild]

i just want to say good luck t j
and thank you are a true hawkeye

 

[CP87]

I think it's kinda interesting that a few of those guys can be placed into either a Fant (Miamen, Beyer?) or Hockenson (LaPorta, Cook?, Lee?) type mold.

While we're obviously gonna take a huge hit production wise, Kirk and Brian's track record with TEs says that at least one of those guys will become a dependable target, good for ~300 yards and 3-4 TDs. Hopefully the WR development can continue to pick up the slack.

I think LaPorta and Cook are in the Hockenson mold (great all-around athletes, talented receivers, body-type to grow into good blockers). I think Lee is his own animal. I am pretty sure that guy could grow into a starting OT for Iowa. He has also shown some solid receiving skills. I am not so sure we have seen one like him in awhile. Maybe a bigger, badder Wieting with more receiving skills?

 

[ohhawk]

Iowa getting 4 into the NFL is nothing but a huge positive for the program. Great high school players want to play in the NFL someday. Iowa has a terrific record of making that happen for recruits. It is a great story and word is getting out now that if you want to play in the NFL, come to Iowa to be developed.

Agree in general but does vary significantly by position. Some skill positions are pretty darn lean with our last RB being Greene in 2009 (3rd round) and last WR being McNutt in 2012 (6th round).

 

[The Big LeHAWKski]

Also, I think you need to take into account the success that Kittle had his first year in the NFL. He just exploded and is pretty fresh in the minds of a lot of NFL execs and fans. That can only bode well for these two in the draft this year. Take advantage of it.

Fant and TJ likely will both benefit from the Kittle-effect. And of course Dallas Clark will come up at some point in the conversation of the Iowa TE history in various war-rooms.
Hope they both bank $$$BIG$$$. They can buy Kittle dinner when they see him.

 

[homes]

are you implying kirk is comatose?

No, just tired.

 

[Fryowa]

Mel kiper is an actual scouting idiot and can bloviate better than anyone on air about any player at any level. His rankings are worthless.

Your not wrong... The dude is wrong way more than he's right.

I can’t remember where I saw it, but someone did an actual academic paper on Kiper’s pick results (I think it included McShay as well), and his results were absolutely horrible. McShay was bad, but Kiper was just atrocious.

The stat that stuck out to me was that the paper arbitrarily called getting 4 out of the 1st 10 picks correct (not in order, just the picks) a “success” so to speak, and Kiper had done that less than 10% of the time. After the first 10 picks his results were so bad that all significant digits were zero. I wish I could remember where I found that...

Basically it was scientifically confirmed (I won’t use the word “proven” because it’s so obvious that it doesn’t need to be proven) that Kiper is completely worthless at draft picks. And so is everyone else.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I can’t remember where I saw it, but someone did an actual academic paper on Kiper’s pick results (I think it included McShay as well), and his results were absolutely horrible. McShay was bad, but Kiper was just atrocious.

The stat that stuck out to me was that the paper arbitrarily called getting 4 out of the 1st 10 picks correct (not in order, just the picks) a “success” so to speak, and Kiper had done that less than 10% of the time. After the first 10 picks his results were so bad that all significant digits were zero. I wish I could remember where I found that...

Basically it was scientifically confirmed (I won’t use the word “proven” because it’s so obvious that it doesn’t need to be proven) that Kiper is completely worthless at draft picks. And so is everyone else.

Right so if any idiot randomly making 'picks' can do it how's he gotten that gig and been able to keep it all these years? Entertainment value I suppose. He's a personality now. Like Chris Berman was.

 

[revkev73]

If you take a look at the TE’s drafted in the top 2 rounds over the last 4 years (10 players), not a single one has made the pro bowl.

Point being at a certain point you have to wonder if GM’s will start to question whether they are going to get the return on a top 2 round pick if they go with a TE.

To compound this potential issue for TE prospects is the fact that TEs rarely get selected in the top 15. Dating back to 2010 I only found one TE drafted in the top 15 and that was Eric Ebron at 10. (Ebron had a great year with the Colts this year, but in no way did the Lions get #10 value out of him).

So cross out the top 15 picks and that leaves you with roughly 50 picks available if your goal is to go in the top 2 rounds.

The next barrier here is there are likely only a handful of teams looking for a TE in the early rounds.

Can probably cross off these teams:
-Bears (no picks / have 2 TEs)
-Eagles (have two TEs)
-Chiefs (Kelce)
-49ers (Kittle)
-Ravens (drafted 2 in top 3 rounds last year)

Unlikely to get TE:
-Browns (Njoku)
-Giants (Engram)
-Buccaneers (Howard)
-Vikings (Rudolph)
-Colts (Ebron)

So likely cross off basically 1/3 of the teams, which cuts that 50 potential picks number. Add to that the fact that this is supposedly a very strong TE class it’s going to be tough. My guess is a couple TEs who think they are top 2 round material are going to fall to the 3rd or 4th. Hopefully it’s not T.J. or Noah.

I say Packers or Cowboys

 

[Jonrn]

I can’t remember where I saw it, but someone did an actual academic paper on Kiper’s pick results (I think it included McShay as well), and his results were absolutely horrible. McShay was bad, but Kiper was just atrocious.

The stat that stuck out to me was that the paper arbitrarily called getting 4 out of the 1st 10 picks correct (not in order, just the picks) a “success” so to speak, and Kiper had done that less than 10% of the time. After the first 10 picks his results were so bad that all significant digits were zero. I wish I could remember where I found that...

Basically it was scientifically confirmed (I won’t use the word “proven” because it’s so obvious that it doesn’t need to be proven) that Kiper is completely worthless at draft picks. And so is everyone else.

This is hilarious!

 

[CP87]

I think LaPorta and Cook are in the Hockenson mold (great all-around athletes, talented receivers, body-type to grow into good blockers). I think Lee is his own animal. I am pretty sure that guy could grow into a starting OT for Iowa. He has also shown some solid receiving skills. I am not so sure we have seen one like him in awhile. Maybe a bigger, badder Wieting with more receiving skills?

 

[cincyhawk]

Get used to seeing two years out of our best guys from now on.

That's called recruiting.