BigD
Well-Known Member
Wasn’t there some hot shot recruit that chose Iowa State over I O W A? Can’t remember his name anymore.
Hey kid how do you like em now???????????
This Team Answered the Critics
- Thread starter ChosenChildren
- Start date
Hey kid how do you like em now???????????
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
If we win our last 2 and the Big 10 Tournament will have won 10 of our last 11; beaten Illinois on a neutral court; beaten Michigan on a neutral court; and have a shitload of Quad 1 wins...plus the National POY. IMO it won’t matter what Illinois does in these last 2 games. We’re a lock for a 1 seed. And the Selection Committee can point out that 4 of our losses were the result of an injured player...if questioned/challenged.
I’m not predicting these wins. I’m saying the 1 seed is ours in this scenario. Win these last 2 and we’re a 2 or 3...depending on BTT...which is fine with me.
Side Note - I don’t think Illinois will win at Michigan. And I think they have less of a chance to win at OSU. OSU has a week to prepare and get healthy. And Illinois will be focused on Michigan.
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1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
It's refreshing to see Iowa be highly ranked going into the last month or so of the season and not see February/March be a complete f'ing disaster. 2013-14 and 2015-16 were maddening.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
The "fade" includes March, too.
The 2013-14 team lost 7 of their last 8.
The 2015-16 team lost 7 of their last 10.
The 2018-19 team lost 7 of their last 10.
I won't mention the 2017-18 team because that whole season was garbage.
No, it's not EVERY year, but there absolutely has been a tendency to fall apart late. This year, as I just pointed out, has been a refreshing change for the better.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Yes, Franuary starts sometime around Jan 15-25 and concludes in March.
They have have up to this point I'd say yes. That was a huge huge win. That can not be understated. This puts them in position to make a run. However for many in the fan base till they make a late run in BIG tourny and get to the elite 8 or better in the big dance they'll still be hating on ole Fran. It just depends how it goes the book isn't written yet
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
While I know AP does not pick the seeds, they are usually pretty close to the committee. In my view, we should be ranked 5th this week with two winnable games to go.
Bama, Okie and Nova all lost. Non were to ranked teams. OSU is on a 3 game losing streak, including to us. We split a pair of Top 5 games. We should jump all four of those teams.
That would place us as the highest 2 seed. If we could beat Illinois in the tourney, we could jump them to a 1-seed.
Bottom line for me is that if we take care of business this week, we should be a lock for a 2 seed.
Bama, Okie and Nova all lost. Non were to ranked teams. OSU is on a 3 game losing streak, including to us. We split a pair of Top 5 games. We should jump all four of those teams.
That would place us as the highest 2 seed. If we could beat Illinois in the tourney, we could jump them to a 1-seed.
Bottom line for me is that if we take care of business this week, we should be a lock for a 2 seed.
Fryowa
Administrator
If you split the conference season exactly in half, from 2016 on till now Fran is .607 in the first half, and .413 in the second half of the season.
I'm in no way suggesting getting rid of Fran, but he definitely slides in the last half of the season. It's not viable to say that it's because of a grueling season because there are 13 other teams that play the same number of games and only a finite number of losses to go around.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
For it to really be a true fade, and for it to be something that happens every year....wouldn't he have to have a losing record at least or at worse, several years where his record is always bad in the last month? Me stating that this is the teeth of Iowa's season every year is true. This is when teams play their toughest games. Not just Iowa, everyone. Not just the B1G, every conference. He not only doesn't fade in February, he's got a winning record. I don't make the stats up I just share em. We can cool it on the fade talk at this point just based off his resume which is all we really have to go off of.
Fryowa
Administrator
Or you could just look at the actual NET rankings and see we're a 5 since that poll actually matters.
Once the NCAA started using NET, all other polls are obsolete. Which thankfully is the way it should be. Now if only football could do the same thing.
The AP is to college basketball what the Farmer's Almanac is to the National Weather Service.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Boy, one has a tendency to forget all the close losses or close calls.
Fryowa
Administrator
I don't think anyone ever singled out February. It's not debatable that Fran's teams perform worse in the last half of the conference season.
It might be true, but that doesn't put Iowa at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the league. It's not true to say that the reason Iowa's record falls off in the back half is because the season is getting tougher......because for every team that finished the second half of the season at .400, there's one that would have to .600, right?
No team (including Iowa) has a disadvantage down the stretch relative to any other team.
It isn't like every program can struggle the last half, that's mathematically impossible. Iowa doesn't have it tougher than any other squad. That's like saying a football team lost because it was raining when the other team had to play in the rain too.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I've enjoyed this season, don't get me wrong, but it's hard not to think of where this team would be sitting if some of those games had not gotten away. I'm thinking mainly of the games against Minnesota, the first OSU game, and both Indiana games. This team could very easily be 22-3 right now, a game out of first place, and sitting on the 1 seed line.
But, I'm not complaining about where we're sitting right now. Sign me up for this type of season any day.
Fryowa
Administrator
I have never claimed it happens every year because I understand probability and distributions enough to not think something that stupid. But on average, it's the case.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Yep, the games where they let the lead slip away and couldn't close out. I hear ya! Those are tough to swallow.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
I didn't say Iowa had it tougher, literally any where. I didn't say Iowa was at an advantage or disadvantage. I said, that's when teams play the teeth of their schedule. Not just Iowa, all teams. This is the pressure time. When teams are beat up. When they are grinding though a season and just trying to get to March...and I'm not just talking Iowa. Argue that if you must.
To me, that's a pretty good observation when looking at a when teams dip. In most cases, teams play their toughest games down the stretch. That's the case with everyone, not just Iowa. But, it certainly plays a role into how a team finishes.
Iowa wins more than they lose in February, that's not debatable.
I think it's possible to get a 1 seed by winning the Big 10 tournament if Illinois wins one, but I don't think it will be if they win both. Being 2 clear of us in the conference standings is too much to overcome. The love they would have after winning those two games would dwarf the love we are getting now,, and rightfully so.
As far as winning the next two and locking up a 2 or 3 seed goes. How could we possibly drop off the 2 line at that point. We will be sitting as the top 2 which means four teams would have to pass us by loss in to a Maryland type team in the first round. No way four teams can pass us at that point. Win the next two and we are either a 2 seed or sneak into a 1.
ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
I've always considered a 2 or 3 seed about the same thing.
FloridaHawks
Well-Known Member
Iowa getting a 1 or 2 seed would be the best thing that could happen to my March Madness bracket. Every other sucker is going to bring them to the sweet 16 or elite 8. Anyone following Iowa basketball knows from experience this team is a second round upset loss- almost guaranteed. The first team Iowa plays under a 14 seed will take them down.
