These next three games....

View attachment 4695

1. Team Value Index - No clue what actually is involved in their formula to decide what "good teams" are. It sounds similar to #4 but with an unknown element of whatever a "good team" is. Appears to have a SOS element but it's not defined.

2. Net Efficiency - Simple enough, it's the net margin of efficiency (offense and defense) based on the number of possessions. No SOS element here so same reward for dominating a bad team as it is for dominating a good team.

3. Winning Percentage - In it's simplest form. Again no SOS element here.

4. Adjusted Winning Percentage - Brought in from the RPI, you are rewarded/least punished for road wins/losses the most, then neutral wins/losses, and rewarded the least/punished the most by home wins/losses. No SOS element.

5. Scoring Margin - Again in its simplest terms but capped at 10. Games that go into OT are capped at positive/negative 1. No SOS element so beating a really good team on the road by 10+ and beating a really bad team at home by 10+ is worth the same.

Summary - Unless the information that has been released is inaccurate, there is no SOS element involved outside of #1. The "Team Value Index" term of "good team" is the only unknown. There is no opponent's winning percentage or opponent's opponent winning percentage component involved like the RPI had unless of course this is the "good team" metric mentioned in #1.

See below, it looks like the NET favors the teams with no losses more than Kenpom and Sagarin do.

View attachment 4697

So beat each of these next three teams by 10+ points will somewhat mitigate the negative effect of the poor team value index of each of these teams, however they figure that out?
 
How can you not buy that? You dont think a small school would rather play Duke than Iowa? Of course they would. Finding some examples of other programs that have done a better job of scheduling doesn't change that blatantly obvious fact.

I didn't even have to look that hard, those were the first 2 I clicked on. Saying these low majors would prefer to schedule Duke over schools like Iowa is a very flimsy excuse.
 
I didn't even have to look that hard, those were the first 2 I clicked on. Saying these low majors would prefer to schedule Duke over schools like Iowa is a very flimsy excuse.

Whether that's true or not that it's easier for Duke to schedule good competition - there are 350+ D1 teams to choose from. Yet somehow we keep ending up with a pretty sizable batch of opponents that are in the bottom 10-15%. Seems like 4-6 of them EVERY year.

One or two of them, OK, but it shouldn't be THAT hard to avoid playing the absolute dregs of college basketball that many times each and every year.

I agree - the Duke thing is an excuse. Nothing more.

And no, Iowa is not the only school that does this. That's not the point.

If nothing else, these types of games are painfully boring to watch.
 
Last edited:
R-e-l-a-x. The B1G is so strong this year all the SoS stuff will be taken care of by just playing the 20 game conference slate.

By the way, in the non-conference:

Iowa played 4 quality opponents, 6 cupcakes, and UNI.
Michigan played 4 quality opponents (nova, providence, South Carolina, North Carolina) and 7 cupcakes
Michigan State played 5 quality opponents (Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Louisville, Florida) and 6 cupcakes
Purdue played 4 quality opponents (VT, Florida State, Texas, ND) and 7 cupcakes

Iowa isn't doing ANYTHING different than the rest of the Big Ten. Keep in mind Iowa was left out of the Gavitt games this year, so other Big Ten teams got an extra quality opponent because of that.
 
So beat each of these next three teams by 10+ points will somewhat mitigate the negative effect of the poor team value index of each of these teams, however they figure that out?

That's basically how I read it.

In other words #3 through #5 are all fixed once you reach a 10 point win margin but #2 can be altered based on how handily you beat an opponent. SOS does not matter for #2 through #5. #1 is the only unknown that some how has opponent strength involved.
 
Also...

Illinois has played Georgetown, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Xavier and lost them all. They also beat UNLV and still play Missouri. Their non conference was pretty brutal and their season is basically already over before it even started.

So keep in mind the negative effect of scheduling a tough non conference and losing a lot of them. It looks bad on your resume, it keeps your win total way down, and it destroys all confidence your players and fans have in your season.
 
R-e-l-a-x. The B1G is so strong this year all the SoS stuff will be taken care of by just playing the 20 game conference slate.

By the way, in the non-conference:

Iowa played 4 quality opponents, 6 cupcakes, and UNI.
Michigan played 4 quality opponents (nova, providence, South Carolina, North Carolina) and 7 cupcakes
Michigan State played 5 quality opponents (Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Louisville, Florida) and 6 cupcakes
Purdue played 4 quality opponents (VT, Florida State, Texas, ND) and 7 cupcakes

Iowa isn't doing ANYTHING different than the rest of the Big Ten. Keep in mind Iowa was left out of the Gavitt games this year, so other Big Ten teams got an extra quality opponent because of that.
And if memory serves me, the UMKC and WGB games were part of the 2K Classic.

I think Fran also said earlier that we got left out of B1G Gavitt game due to the HyVee Classic.

But our fans know all this.
 
Rhode Island, Texas AM, Georgia, Vandy, Wisconsin, SMU, Southern Miss, Wake Forest and NC State have all played/scheduled one of the next three opponents.

Wisconsin has only scheduled 1. Are schools like Rhode Island, SMU, and Southern Miss even in power5 conferences?

But, yeah, it’s just Iowa that schedules cupcakes.

I didn't say that at all. My complaint is scheduling THREE of them in a row. Not to mention the previous cupcakes Iowa has already played.
 
Also...

Illinois has played Georgetown, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Xavier and lost them all. They also beat UNLV and still play Missouri. Their non conference was pretty brutal and their season is basically already over before it even started.

So keep in mind the negative effect of scheduling a tough non conference and losing a lot of them. It looks bad on your resume, it keeps your win total way down, and it destroys all confidence your players and fans have in your season.

I'm not even calling for them to play a brutal non conference schedule like Illinois did. All I'm saying is play better cupcakes.
 
I'm not even calling for them to play a brutal non conference schedule like Illinois did. All I'm saying is play better cupcakes.

If we played easier cupcakes, they would still be boring games against no name schools that fans wouldn't get excited for. It sounds like we all agree we are going to schedule some bad teams. The question is how bad those bad teams should be. The absolute only reason that matters is for strength of schedule and we aren't even sure yet how much this even matters anymore with the new metrics.

The dumbest thing about the RPI is how huge of a difference it made between playing 3 schools you had a 95% chance of winning and playing 3 schools you had a 98% chance of winning. Both were all but 3 guaranteed wins, yet it made a huge difference in RPI. Hopefully it doesn't matter anymore so we can quit bitching about playing teams in the 300s instead of teams in the 250s.
 
Rhode Island, Texas AM, Georgia, Vandy, Wisconsin, SMU, Southern Miss, Wake Forest and NC State have all played/scheduled one of the next three opponents.

But, yeah, it’s just Iowa that schedules cupcakes.
Let us know when they schedule all 3 in a row. I'll wait. Even if it takes 30 years.
 
If we played easier cupcakes, they would still be boring games against no name schools that fans wouldn't get excited for. It sounds like we all agree we are going to schedule some bad teams. The question is how bad those bad teams should be. The absolute only reason that matters is for strength of schedule and we aren't even sure yet how much this even matters anymore with the new metrics.

The dumbest thing about the RPI is how huge of a difference it made between playing 3 schools you had a 95% chance of winning and playing 3 schools you had a 98% chance of winning. Both were all but 3 guaranteed wins, yet it made a huge difference in RPI. Hopefully it doesn't matter anymore so we can quit bitching about playing teams in the 300s instead of teams in the 250s.

I'll probably still bitch.....these games are not all that fun to watch either. :)
 
R-e-l-a-x. The B1G is so strong this year all the SoS stuff will be taken care of by just playing the 20 game conference slate.

By the way, in the non-conference:

Iowa played 4 quality opponents, 6 cupcakes, and UNI.
Michigan played 4 quality opponents (nova, providence, South Carolina, North Carolina) and 7 cupcakes
Michigan State played 5 quality opponents (Kansas, UCLA, Texas, Louisville, Florida) and 6 cupcakes
Purdue played 4 quality opponents (VT, Florida State, Texas, ND) and 7 cupcakes

Iowa isn't doing ANYTHING different than the rest of the Big Ten. Keep in mind Iowa was left out of the Gavitt games this year, so other Big Ten teams got an extra quality opponent because of that.
This is a good point against the SOS argument. My argument is that playing 3 cupcakes in a row does nothing to prepare your team for that strong BIG conference play.
 
This is a good point against the SOS argument. My argument is that playing 3 cupcakes in a row does nothing to prepare your team for that strong BIG conference play.

This is true. But they only had 4 games to schedule this year. It just so happens that 3 of them are in a row at the end. The only other realistic option would have been slightly less terrible teams that still do nothing to prepare you for conference play.
 
That Whiskey loss is going to sting even more in March when its to a middle of the road conference finisher at home.
 
I'll probably still bitch.....these games are not all that fun to watch either. :)

I dont disagree that the games aren't very fun to watch. Even the UNI game was boring as all hell. However, this is a snoozer time of year on campus anyway. The students are gone, its the holidays, etc. Its a good time for the players to work on things and stay healthy before the real schedule begins.
 
This is a good point against the SOS argument. My argument is that playing 3 cupcakes in a row does nothing to prepare your team for that strong BIG conference play.
Could Barta's argument (which won't make sense if he has one) be that he doesnt want to schedule attractive non con home games when the students are gone? Does anyone even know how many students actually attend games? Does anyone know how many regular football bowl game attendees are also regular basketball patrons?

No way would Barta schedule Iowa State this close to the holidays. He would lose one of the few guaranteed non con gates he does get. Playing three consecutive cupcakes makes no sense on any level at any time, but doing it on the eve of conference games looks clueless. But perhaps Barta, ever the gutless one, feels that scheduling sub 300 RPI's a week before a date in Mackey Arena is the best way to cut his losses.

Thank God we're playing Cincinnati in that United Center holiday doubleheader next year. That is how you prepare your team for conference play.
 
Last edited:
I dont disagree that the games aren't very fun to watch. Even the UNI game was boring as all hell. However, this is a snoozer time of year on campus anyway. The students are gone, its the holidays, etc. Its a good time for the players to work on things and stay healthy before the real schedule begins.

Would be a perfect time of year to schedule a decent road game(if the opposing AD would agree to it) as the opposing team's students wouldn't be around. Get that SOS up and possibly steal one that would be a bit more difficult if class was in session. :)
 
Top