JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
Look, I don't think Nate Copper is very smart myself, but this article is a fun trip. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-found-the-perfect-recipe-for-college-football-chaos/
Look, I don't think Nate Copper is very smart myself, but this article is a fun trip. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-found-the-perfect-recipe-for-college-football-chaos/
The image with Iowa at five and 50%.I guess I don't see where it gives Iowa a 50% shot at the playoffs. In every scenario I don't see Iowa floating above the line for the top 4.
I guess I don't see where it gives Iowa a 50% shot at the playoffs. In every scenario I don't see Iowa floating above the line for the top 4.
Without reading the article, it is a very simple equation.
Percentage likelihood Iowa beats Michigan: 200%
Percentage likelihood Houston beats Cincinnati: 25%
Multiply the numbers, it equals 50%. The Committee isn't putting up a potential SEC rematch. Loser of SEC game is out. SEC champ and Oklahoma State are locks. If Cincinnati wins, they are in. Only issue is whether ND will get in over Iowa, but I personally don't think they will. Now that I do the math, I think there is a 200% chance Iowa makes the playoff.
This is the same committee that shrugged off Alabama getting manhandled by an unranked team. It is not out of the question that an Alabama loss tomorrow sees them stick at 3. An Alabama win unquestionably results in Alabama 1, Georgia 2/3.Without reading the article, it is a very simple equation.
Percentage likelihood Iowa beats Michigan: 200%
Percentage likelihood Houston beats Cincinnati: 25%
Multiply the numbers, it equals 50%. The Committee isn't putting up a potential SEC rematch. Loser of SEC game is out. SEC champ and Oklahoma State are locks. If Cincinnati wins, they are in. Only issue is whether ND will get in over Iowa, but I personally don't think they will. Now that I do the math, I think there is a 200% chance Iowa makes the playoff.