The State of Iowa Basketball

[eledmonster]

I would not characterize Fran as a bad recruiter per se. he has brought in some excellent players over time but at the same time has missed on many more. With recruiting, second place is no good.
I think of him more as an over-extending of overzealous recruiter. He consistently goes after kids that he has no chance to land. They string Fran along (totally within their rights) and ultimately go elsewhere. Fran is then panicking to find plan B or C. If he would start at a more reasonable level, and not go for all of the blue chip recruits, he would probably have better results.

To me, Fran's bigger issue is X's and O's and his stubbornness to make needed lineup changes. And making changes that don't need to be made.
In my book, game time player / bench management is Fran's biggest issue.

 

[Adam]

Let me preface this with I have been an Iowa fan for a long time 60s however I have not always been a fan of the coaches at Iowa. Dick Shultz was a nice guy but a lousy coach, Alford was a potentially great coach but couldn't overcome the fact he was a Jerk. Lick (what can I say)
Not sure where McCaffrey fits on the spectrum but its not near the top. I have never been a fan. Why?
He is a bad recruiter. I think the last few days really bears that out. If you look at his years at Iowa you could arguably say he won one big recruiting battle. Tyler Cook. And as we in hindsight evaluate that while Tyler was talented and athletic and a good kid maybe other schools recognized he would never shoot the ball well? There are others like Weiskamp who is and will be a good player but Iowa recruited him not McCaffrey. I see on the board all these 4 and 5 star players we are recruiting ex Foster but we aren't going to get any of those. Why would they come to Iowa to play for McCaffrey? In the end we go out and recruit Tousant (sp) who Fran describes as a hard nosed player! We have some "good" hard nosed players but not the kind of players that get you to a higher level (sweet 16) Fran can't recruit
As a coach I think he probably was a decent mid major coach but his time at Iowa hasn't won him any coach of the year consideration. I know we are not a great athletic team but our defense is a pretty good example of Fran's coaching. I think even UNI with their talent level plays better defense
Finally Fran is not a great representative at times of the University I graduated from, but at least he hasn't broken a chair in a while

So where is Iowa basketball under Fran McCaffrey? I think we will periodically battle for first division finishes and a trip to the Tournament with a possible win in the tournament like this last year. But that is most likely the pinnacle of a McCaffrey coached Iowa team. Maybe that's good enough? Sure hope not

I think Fran is probably a better recruiter than we give him credit for. He gets interest from a lot of talent. Yes I know that interest doesn't amount to shit, but at the same time it would be naive to think that Fran is recruiting on an even playing field. I do believe that Fran's tenure at Iowa is winding down. He also isn't my favorite coach in history, but I will always wonder what he could of accomplished if he was allowed to recruit without shackles. 1 little envelope might have been the difference between getting Ulis and not. Getting Ulis would have single handedly changed the course of Iowa basketball history. There have been a couple others. It's hard to not wonder if paying money was the main or only deciding factors.

For those that don't accept that not being able to cheat is an excuse to be average. I understand and I can live with that. I do believe there are a select few excellent coaches that could overcome.

 

[bogeyman]

I think he's been average to below average in game coach. Managing rotations, calling timeouts etc.
I am tired of the childish antics and temper and the way he treats certain people.

I think it is fair to say his recruiting overall hasn't been horrible, its been average or about where you could expect it to be. Moss' class was a huge swing and miss with all the busts which set us back. But really his achilles heal has been more specifically his lack of ability to recruit the one position of need...which we have all beaten to death and know. If he could have recruited just 2 penetrating guards that were difference makers the last 9 years the recruiting classes look a whole lot different. Every piece around a stud penetrating guard would look better as that guard would make them all better.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

For me next year I’m thinking our defense potentially takes a step back, that’s a step back from a sub-100 level defense.

Baer was our best defender, then likely Wieskamp. After that I’d say probably Kriener, Cook, Dailey, and Moss in the next group. So we lose 4 of our top 6 defenders.

The scary part is without Cook and Moss I think our offense probably takes a step back as well. That’s not to say we wont be a good offensive team, I’m sure we will, but I’m not sure we will be as good as we were this year on that end.

As always guys can and will improve, but will it be enough to replace what we lost? I’d say I’m skeptical at this point.

Kind of agree about your defense point.

Do not agree with your point on offense. I think they could potentially be better. Cook was pretty one-dimensional which I kind of feel hurt Iowa a bit. Moss was well Moss, kind of inconsistent partly on him and much on Fran for not playing him more.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

So true. Iowa's offensive efficiency was actually slightly better in 2017-2018 than it was in 2018-2019.

The problem of course in 2017-2018 the team had a historically bad defense.

Last year, that improved quite a bit. Iowa still had the worst defense in the B1G but overall they ranked 205th in the nation in efficiency (they were 308th in 2017-2018). And that resulted in the team getting the closest Fran has ever gotten to the Sweet 16.

Imagine if Fran committed to playing defense like Wisconsin or Kentucky does. One program struggles recruiting top athletes, one gets the very top athletes. But both programs have one thing in common. Regardless of who you are, you simply don't play if you refuse to defend well.

Exactly. Even if they got around 125, just think what that could mean. Of course I wouldn't set the bar there but that is how bad they have been. If just defended average this team would pick up additional wins. Wisconsin is also a team that has low turnovers. They take care of the ball.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Kind of agree about your defense point.

Do not agree with your point on offense. I think they could potentially be better. Cook was pretty one-dimensional which I kind of feel hurt Iowa a bit. Moss was well Moss, kind of inconsistent partly on him and much on Fran for not playing him more.

It’s possible we could be a better offensive team I guess, but we were 15th in adjusted offensive according to KenPom.

Cook had his issues but he drew a lot of attention and a lot of fouls. Moss was at the very least a deadly outside shooter and even Baer shot the ball very well from the outside.

To be better than top 15 next year Nunge is going to have to be Garza level good offensively and Touissant and CJF are going to have to be the real deal. It’s possible, but pretty unlikely.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

It’s possible we could be a better offensive team I guess, but we were 15th in adjusted offensive according to KenPom.

Cook had his issues but he drew a lot of attention and a lot of fouls. Moss was at the very least a deadly outside shooter and even Baer shot the ball very well from the outside.

To be better than top 15 next year Nunge is going to have to be Garza level good offensively and Touissant and CJF are going to have to be the real deal.

True that above. But, it is pretty easy for a college coach or their players to defend a one-dimensional player. Cook couldn't be effective away (more than 6 ft) from the hoop. He had no mid range shot at all. He could only really dunk and cause some fouls. Teams will let players get 4 dunks and 12 pts a game. He didn't put a lot of pressure on the other team because they knew his limitations. Hell, he really wasn't as good of a rebounder as he should have been.

At least with Kriener in there, a team would have to go out on him and honor his outside shot. This will open up the middle even more going forward. Garza can hit the outside shot as well.

Cook never really grew his time at Iowa, IMO. A good basketball player, but pretty one dimensional. He wouldn't scare me if I were coaching against him. I'd just tell my team to lock down on him and it's fine if he gets his 6 points in thunderous dunks, just don't foul him when he does them.

 

[PCHawk]

It’s possible we could be a better offensive team I guess, but we were 15th in adjusted offensive according to KenPom.

Cook had his issues but he drew a lot of attention and a lot of fouls. Moss was at the very least a deadly outside shooter and even Baer shot the ball very well from the outside.

To be better than top 15 next year Nunge is going to have to be Garza level good offensively and Touissant and CJF are going to have to be the real deal. It’s possible, but pretty unlikely.

One plus is Garza will have an entire off season to improve. As hard of a worker he is, it's very possible he will be considerably better next year. Then is Wieskamp becomes more of a focal point on offense we could be way more efficient too. Too be clear, all I'm doing is pointing out reasons for hope. I wouldn't bet on being better next year.

 

[NikeHawk21]

One plus is Garza will have an entire off season to improve. As hard of a worker he is, it's very possible he will be considerably better next year. Then is Wieskamp becomes more of a focal point on offense we could be way more efficient too. Too be clear, all I'm doing is pointing out reasons for hope. I wouldn't bet on being better next year.

Agreed, those are potential reasons for hope. I could see Wieskamp and Garza at 16+ PPG, JBo 12 PPG, and Nunge around 10. That would be a good starting point. As we mentioned would really need high quality play from Toussaint CJF or both though if we want to exceed a top 15 level offensive club from last year. I wouldn’t bank on it now but it is possible.

We will be a good offensive team, just not sure of how good.

 

[PCHawk]

Agreed, those are potential reasons for hope. I could see Wieskamp and Garza at 16+ PPG, JBo 12 PPG, and Nunge around 10. That would be a good starting point. As we mentioned would really need high quality play from Toussaint CJF or both though if we want to exceed a top 15 level offensive club from last year. I wouldn’t bank on it now but it is possible.

We will be a good offensive team, just not sure of how good.

Now here is some hope for defense. Maybe Cook and Moss were the biggest culprits of the bad defensive effort the past few years. Maybe without them we will have 5 guys trying their asses off for 40 minutes per game. Maybe CJ and Nunge dont have the physical ability to play defense like Cook and Moss do, but maybe they have the mental makeup to work harder.

 

[NikeHawk21]

True that above. But, it is pretty easy for a college coach or their players to defend a one-dimensional player. Cook couldn't be effective away (more than 6 ft) from the hoop. He had no mid range shot at all. He could only really dunk and cause some fouls. Teams will let players get 4 dunks and 12 pts a game. He didn't put a lot of pressure on the other team because they knew his limitations. Hell, he really wasn't as good of a rebounder as he should have been.

At least with Kriener in there, a team would have to go out on him and honor his outside shot. This will open up the middle even more going forward. Garza can hit the outside shot as well.

Cook never really grew his time at Iowa, IMO. A good basketball player, but pretty one dimensional. He wouldn't scare me if I were coaching against him. I'd just tell my team to lock down on him and it's fine if he gets his 6 points in thunderous dunks, just don't foul him when he does them.

We can downplay and discredit Cook all we want, and I’ve certainly done that on many occasions, but he’s still going to be a tough guy to replace. His size, strength, and athleticism were very good at the college level and that’s why he averaged over 14 points per game.

 

[Adam]

Now here is some hope for defense. Maybe Cook and Moss were the biggest culprits of the bad defensive effort the past few years. Maybe without them we will have 5 guys trying their asses off for 40 minutes per game. Maybe CJ and Nunge dont have the physical ability to play defense like Cook and Moss do, but maybe they have the mental makeup to work harder.

It's possible and we wont know for awhile, but it feels to me as if our defense has always been hamstrung by the offense. I could easily be wrong, but it doesn't feel like that is changing under Fran.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Now here is some hope for defense. Maybe Cook and Moss were the biggest culprits of the bad defensive effort the past few years. Maybe without them we will have 5 guys trying their asses off for 40 minutes per game. Maybe CJ and Nunge dont have the physical ability to play defense like Cook and Moss do, but maybe they have the mental makeup to work harder.

I’m convinced Nunge will be a better defender than Cook. It’s elsewhere in concerned.

Garza and Bohannon are defensive liabilities, and they are going to get big minutes due to their offense. Connor was below average last year. I still think Pemsl is too slow to really guard 4s. Unless CJF put some serious work in the weight room he’s going to get pushed around a little. Pat’s weight and strength is a major concern.

Quality team defense can overcome some of that, but I think it’s going to be a struggle.

 

[Adam]

We can downplay and discredit Cook all we want, and I’ve certainly done that on many occasions, but he’s still going to be a tough guy to replace. His size, strength, and athleticism were very good at the college level and that’s why he averaged over 14 points per game.

Really good player. Just not elite. Hard to replace, but not impossible. Noone yet knows how much Nunge can bring to the table, but if he is good the loss of TC will not be felt as bad.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Really good player. Just not elite. Hard to replace, but not impossible. Noone yet knows how much Nunge can bring to the table, but if he is good the loss of TC will not be felt as bad.

Absolutely. I’m super high on Nunge and have been saying that in his own way (shot blocking, 3pt shooting) he will make the Cook loss not as bad.

The tough part is replacing all that we lost. Do we bring enough on or will others improve enough to replace it? Maybe, but I’m skeptical at this stage.

 

[Adam]

Absolutely. I’m super high on Nunge and have been saying that in his own way (shot blocking, 3pt shooting) he will make the Cook loss not as bad.

The tough part is replacing all that we lost. Do we bring enough on or will others improve enough to replace it? Maybe, but I’m skeptical at this stage.

Well Baer was a hustle guy that could shoot the 3. He came off the bench so we pretty much just need a rotation guy that can 3pt, rebound and defend. I think CJ should fit this role.

Nunge replaces TC. Could be better, could be worse. Hopefully at least its net zero.

Moss and Dailey are the tricky ones to replace. Simply that they were the only 2 SGs. So someone has to play out of position. Since JW is such a good rebounder I don't think you want to pull him further away from the basket. Connor is not a shooting threat so he isn't a good choice. I really don't see any other option but to move Jbo. This means that we are relying on a true freshman to spell Connor at the point.

No matter what alignment we go with this team is desperately thin at guard now. If we don't secure a transfer we are 1 guard injury away from ruin. It will be very interesting to see if Fran can find a fit or if he has to roll the dice on the season with 4 guards and half of them with zero experience.

 

[N8theGr8]

Absolutely. I’m super high on Nunge and have been saying that in his own way (shot blocking, 3pt shooting) he will make the Cook loss not as bad.

The tough part is replacing all that we lost. Do we bring enough on or will others improve enough to replace it? Maybe, but I’m skeptical at this stage.

The thing everyone is struggling with is all the moving parts. I feel good about all the parts, but how do they fit together? How good are CJ, Toussaint, and Nunge going to be on offense and defense? How well does a slimmed down Pemsl move/play? Will Patrick redshirt? How much nepotism exists in playing time decisions? Right now here are possible starting lineups with the relatively reasonable assumption that JBo, Wieskamp, and Garza are a lock for starting:

CMac, JBo, Wieskamp, Nunge, Garza
CMac, JBo, Wieskamp, Pemsl, Garza
Toussaint, JBo, Wieskamp, Nunge, Garza
Toussaint, JBo, Wieskamp, Pemsl, Garza
JBo, CJ, Wieskamp, Nunge, Garza
JBo, CJ, Wieskamp, Pemsl, Garza
JBo, CJ, Wieskamp, Pat, Garza
JBo, Wieskamp, Pat, Nunge, Garza
JBo, Wieskamp, Pat, Pemsl, Garza

I could throw Kriener in as well, but I think Pemsl is more likely to start. Also of note, I just saw the final 247 composite rankings for Patrick and Toussaint. 81st and 214th, respectively.

 

[Tierney]

Again, it comes down to the defense. If they can figure that out, that would help a ton. Iowa scores points, they just don't defend them that well. Fix that and I'm willing to ride with him a bit longer.[/QUOTE
Iowa was Alfords on the job training job, and he still didn't do very good at UCLA. In fairness to McCaffery, you have to be a fairly good coach to finish in the upper half of the conference. The odds are stacked against Iowa in favor of Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and to a degree any state with a larger population base. Illinois should be killng it every year, but for some reason they are not. Its a lot easier to get quality recruits in other states.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Well Baer was a hustle guy that could shoot the 3. He came off the bench so we pretty much just need a rotation guy that can 3pt, rebound and defend. I think CJ should fit this role.

Nunge replaces TC. Could be better, could be worse. Hopefully at least its net zero.

Moss and Dailey are the tricky ones to replace. Simply that they were the only 2 SGs. So someone has to play out of position. Since JW is such a good rebounder I don't think you want to pull him further away from the basket. Connor is not a shooting threat so he isn't a good choice. I really don't see any other option but to move Jbo. This means that we are relying on a true freshman to spell Connor at the point.

No matter what alignment we go with this team is desperately thin at guard now. If we don't secure a transfer we are 1 guard injury away from ruin. It will be very interesting to see if Fran can find a fit or if he has to roll the dice on the season with 4 guards and half of them with zero experience.

Baer led our team in steals, blocked shots, and was third in rebounds. Don’t be fooled, just because he came off the bench doesn’t mean he’s not an extremely high quality player. Heck based on advanced statistics you could make the argument that Baer was the best player on the team last year.

 

[N8theGr8]

Baer led our team in steals, blocked shots, and was third in rebounds. Don’t be fooled, just because he came off the bench doesn’t mean he’s not an extremely high quality player. Heck based on advanced statistics you could make the argument that Baer was the best player on the team last year.

Just to emphasize this point. Baer may not have been the best player on the team talent wise, but he was the engine that made the rest of the team go. Simplistic analysis of PPP with and without him on the court.

https://www.goiowaawesome.com/iowa-...s-suggests-that-nicholas-baer-was-really-good