The Decade of Average: The Record

[JonDMiller]

We begin a multipart series titled ‘Decade of Average’ that will look at some concerning trends related to the Iowa football program. The last decade was not without some great moments. The 9-0 start to the 2009 season was an amazing ride and run with some fantastic moments. The 2008 season ended so well and was a lot of fun to watch when the team was hitting on all cylinders. But outside of those two seasons, the Hawkeyes have struggled to be much more than average.

Since Drew Tate completed the pass to Warren Holloway in The Capital One bowl, Iowa is:

*73-53 overall, somewhere in the 40’s nationally in winning percentage
*41-39 in Big Ten play

Let’s play with some numbers. Say you take out the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the lone really bright spots in the Decade of Average. That leaves you with:

*53-47 overall on those eight years
*30-34 in Big Ten play

Here are some more numbers from Iowa’s last 10 years; their performance against teams with above .500 records overall and in the Big Ten, as well as losses to teams with records below .500 (far right column)

The asterisk on the 13 losses to sub .500 teams is a note I inserted into my spreadsheet. It reads:

“Wisconsin has just two losses to teams with a sub .500 record since Tate to Holloway, including 6-7 Ohio State in 2011.”

Wisconsin is a program on Iowa’s level (or once was). On the field? It’s not even close, something we’ll also underscore on Sunday night when talking about ‘Developmental Programs’.

That’s a 39% winning percentage against better than .500 FBS teams and of those 26 wins, ELEVEN (42%) of them came against teams who finished their seasons 7-6.

For the last decade, this has been a program who has struggled mightily against Top 25 caliber programs, something Iowa fancies itself as. Iowa definitely has Top 25 facilities (probably much higher) and a Top 25 revenue producing Athletic Department (11th last year) as well as Top 25 fan support (attendance) and a Top Nine head coaches salary.

But what it doesn’t have is Top 25 results. It doesn’t even have results that would rank it in the Top 40 of FBS teams during that time.
What it has done is certainly average in the Big Ten. And between 2005-2013, Iowa’s winning percentage ranked 33rd out of 64 Power Five Conference teams.

Average.

 

[NCHawker]

The average annual salary for head coaches at major colleges (not including four schools that moved up to the Football Bowl Subdivision this season) is $1.64 million, up nearly 12% over last season — and more than 70% since 2006, when USA TODAY Sports began tracking coaches' compensation.

[h=3]NCAA football coaches' average salary at $1.64 million[/h]www.usatoday.com/.../ncaaf/.../college-football-coaches.../1715...USA Today

 

[SamsonHawk515]

Hey JD, remember when you popped off on KXNO and stated that anyone who isn't in Kirk's corner is part of the lunatic fringe. Guess what you are now in that realm, welcome its sunny and full of rainbows over here

 

[JonDMiller]

Hey JD, remember when you popped off on KXNO and stated that anyone who isn't in Kirk's corner is part of the lunatic fringe. Guess what you are now in that realm, welcome its sunny and full of rainbows over here

What year are you talking about?

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Those stats don't lie. 4 million for average. Of those below .500 teams at least a 1/4 of those 13 losses have to be against ISU right (sprinkled with horrible MAC losses)?! I think ISU beat us 5 times in that span...though did they have a losing record in all of them?

 

[SamsonHawk515]

What year are you talking about?

So maybe it wasn't exactly those words, but it certainly was implied that if Hawk fans didn't roll with what Kirk was doing they were part of the Fringe.

Let me think back and say it was roughly 2010/11ish...

The writing on the wall was happening around that time what ever year it might have been. I remember getting hammered at times for voicing the same opinions that are being voiced present day. You got to play to win and that's not Kirk's style I have sat in Kinnick more times then not and thought what might have been...

 

[JonDMiller]

So maybe it wasn't exactly those words, but it certainly was implied that if Hawk fans didn't roll with what Kirk was doing they were part of the Fringe.

Let me think back and say it was roughly 2010/11ish...

The writing on the wall was happening around that time what ever year it might have been. I remember getting hammered at times for voicing the same opinions that are being voiced present day. You got to play to win and that's not Kirk's style I have sat in Kinnick more times then not and thought what might have been...

So you can't recall there year, or the exact words....you have a shaky case

There have been numerous times on Soundoff where people would call in and rip the defense which was moronic...I will cop to that

 

[hwks1]

Seems the only way to respond to this is just stop going to games.

Next year will be no different, may be worse

 

[SamsonHawk515]

So you can't recall there year, or the exact words....you have a shaky case

There have been numerous times on Soundoff where people would call in and rip the defense which was moronic...I will cop to that

Yeah, you have a point. I just remember hopping out of my truck after the trek home from work and hearing the "lunatic fringe" statement.

I got to admit you are an easy target, you have a bigger voice, so it resonates a little more.

It's just ironic to me that the majority of the things you are stating in 2014 are very similar to the things my old man and I would discuss as we made the journey back to Des Moines from Iowa City.

Iowa Football isn't in good shape right now and it's a bummer because it sure was a lot of fun when it was...

 

[Playmaker]

Jon - Please don't forget about that stat concerning Iowa's winning % as a 10+ point favorite in Big 10 play.

 

[Bigtenchamp]

What year are you talking about?

Thing is Jon a lot of us saw this awhile back... a lot.

You are seeing it now and you were showing patience, logic, ect ect.

But I had seen enough for awhile to see that nothing was really every going to get better.

Really I saw this before 2009.

Ferentz never had the total ability to keep any high level of success going.

 

[homes]

Average is as average does. The most troublesome thing from this fan's perspective is that there doesn't appear to be any sense of urgency to change. If it's really only about execution, then this staff is doing a lousy job of coaching because they are still making "execution" mistakes in game 12. That shouldn't be.

 

[mysteron]

We're basically a 7 win program now with few prospects of rising above that. In other words, we're Iowa State under Danny Mac.

 

[spliff45]

We're basically a 7 win program now with few prospects of rising above that. In other words, we're Iowa State under Danny Mac.

May not even be that good because the B1G ******* blows

 

[JonDMiller]

Thing is Jon a lot of us saw this awhile back... a lot.

You are seeing it now and you were showing patience, logic, ect ect.

But I had seen enough for awhile to see that nothing was really every going to get better.

Really I saw this before 2009.

Ferentz never had the total ability to keep any high level of success going.

Frankly, I don't know that it will be possible to sustain high levels of success at Iowa...we'd need to define high levels. To me, it's how long the inevitable pullbacks last. I don't think 8 and 9 win regular seasons should be the statistical outliers, but I also know that 7 win seasons are going to happen here.

 

[JonDMiller]

One thing I thought of this morning that doesn't really have a place in the item and is just a coincidence...

Kirk Ferentz's last decade at Iowa has yielded a Big Ten record of two games over .500.
Tom Davis' last decade at Iowa yielded a Big Ten record of two games over .500

 

[RocknRollface]

So maybe it wasn't exactly those words, but it certainly was implied that if Hawk fans didn't roll with what Kirk was doing they were part of the Fringe.

Let me think back and say it was roughly 2010/11ish...

The writing on the wall was happening around that time what ever year it might have been. I remember getting hammered at times for voicing the same opinions that are being voiced present day. You got to play to win and that's not Kirk's style I have sat in Kinnick more times then not and thought what might have been...

The writing was on the wall in 2006, allot of us spotted KF for being awful at that point but were called "haters".

 

[RocknRollface]

Frankly, I don't know that it will be possible to sustain high levels of success at Iowa...we'd need to define high levels. To me, it's how long the inevitable pullbacks last. I don't think 8 and 9 win regular seasons should be the statistical outliers, but I also know that 7 win seasons are going to happen here.

This conference is the worst in the country and is completely open for the taking.

 

[ArvadaHawk]

Frankly, I don't know that it will be possible to sustain high levels of success at Iowa...we'd need to define high levels. To me, it's how long the inevitable pullbacks last. I don't think 8 and 9 win regular seasons should be the statistical outliers, but I also know that 7 win seasons are going to happen here.

Jon, I think defining what makes a good season, from a win/loss perspective, depends on the future of our recruiting, coaching philosophy and scheduling (non con is sort of up in the air as I'm not sure if the strategy of who is scheduled changes with the playoff system, or not). What has defined the last decade is the amount of wins left on the field by this regime. Losses to ISU and MAC teams that should never be. Arriving at 7 wins while losing to teams we obviously shouldn't, is unacceptable.

As for recruiting, coach proved that he could bring in top 10 talent, because he did in 2005. Much of that class left before playing, for varying reasons. We have seen "un-sexy" recruiting classes since. To me, it is an obvious conscious decision to target "developmental" recruiting classes. Our coach has short-changed Iowa, so to speak, not so much with effort in recruiting (though it could be more energetic) but with the level of and caliber. As you and Deace pointed out, the pro-style is now the "old" school offense and the spread offense, in it's many forms, and even the pistol are the norm. Again, as you both remarked, these are what the high schools are running and the fewer pro-style kids coming out of high school are being gobbled up by the Stanford's, MSU's and other schools with much higher levels of winning momentum.

I'll give my opinion of what should be our minimums. Non conference should be 4-0 every season (with the current configuration of patsies) and 4-4 / 5-3 in conference. I think we've been short-changed on wins the past decade and are somewhat conditioned into thinking 7 wins is okay.

 

[hawkforlife9]

So I think the analysis supports the notion that if want an above average team in a market like Iowa, you need to pay like $8M a year. Because $4M only gets you close to average.