The Decade of Average: The Record

Jon, not that you aren't busy enough but I'd be curious to see the stats and correlation to our recruiting rank versus wins. I am guessing they parallel each other should anybody follow it but Alabama is always ranked number 1 recruiting and there is no shock that they are usually number one in the polls. If my memory serves me correct the last 4 years we consistently have a recruiting rank between 40-60. Just would be interesting and worth bringing up to Kirk in a question and answer session. Bet he'd be blindsided to such stats.
 
Thing is Jon a lot of us saw this awhile back... a lot.

You are seeing it now and you were showing patience, logic, ect ect.

But I had seen enough for awhile to see that nothing was really every going to get better.

Really I saw this before 2009.

Ferentz never had the total ability to keep any high level of success going.

Me too. After 05 06 07, I told my Dad that Kirk only wins when he has horses that are twice as good as everyone else's, and then he just leans on you till you crumble under his weight. I couldn't, at the time, see a future where Iowa would consistently get players that much better than the competition, when they tended to recruit guys nobody had heard of. To be right in that situation is to be smarter than the field - it just doesn't happen that often. One kid a recruiting class, but not all of them.

Then, 4 years after the catch, the recruiting window of opportunity slammed shut due to poor performance. I was done with KF after 07. 08 09 I had a little hope rekindled, but it returned to the mean as I expected.
 
Frankly, I don't know that it will be possible to sustain high levels of success at Iowa...we'd need to define high levels. To me, it's how long the inevitable pullbacks last. I don't think 8 and 9 win regular seasons should be the statistical outliers, but I also know that 7 win seasons are going to happen here.

I think this post represents the vast majority of Hawkeye fans. The problem is this year 7 wins feels more like 5-6. 8 should have been the floor. And that is why even staunch past KF supporters, like me, have a hard time defending him. '7, '10, '12, and now '14.... very dissappointing.

I don't expect 9+ win seasons on the average, I do expect to beat teams we are double digit favorites, and win games in which we have a 14+ point lead, especially in the 2nd half.
 
Sure 7 win years may happen, I think 8 should be average for Iowa with more seasons above avg than below. Problem is KF is turning years that should be 9+ wins into 7.
 
Sure 7 win years may happen, I think 8 should be average for Iowa with more seasons above avg than below. Problem is KF is turning years that should be 9+ wins into 7.

Kf has always been losing a couple games a year he shouldnt. My son and I have been saying that since 2005 and even in 2002 against ISU.

2002 you say with disbelief, well I will tell you why, the hawks had that 24-7 lead but we came out of halftime and norm played a very weak bend but dont break defense to let the clowns march down the field for a score to make it 24-14. to me coming out of the halftime should have been the time to keep up the pressure of the first half.

That is the first time we wondered about KF holding a lead and going for the kill shot.

Since then I and thousands of other fans have witnessed the conservative play not to lose brand of football as well as stupid in game decisions and weird Jake over Stanzi stuff. Even with all that I was still backing KF even thru 2012. The first two thirds of last year was iffy but they finished strong the way you want to see your team do.

But this year was a huge letdown with losses to weaker opponents and an offense that never played a full game and many times looked bad for a half. KF is an offensive coach and the head coach. I am now at the point where his tenure should end soon as he just is not coaching well.
 
I don't see why as an Iowa fan I cannot realistically expect at least 8 wins each year and with a schedule like we had this year to expect at least 9 wins and for God's sakes not have to fear losing to the Ball State's (Including Iowa State) and Northern Iowa's of the world.
 
I don't see why as an Iowa fan I cannot realistically expect at least 8 wins each year and with a schedule like we had this year to expect at least 9 wins and for God's sakes not have to fear losing to the Ball State's (Including Iowa State) and Northern Iowa's of the world.

Speaking of ISU:

Iowa scored 17 points against ISU this year.

ISU will finish 2-10 this year.

NO OTHER team ISU played scored less than 30 points on them. ISU would be an average sub division team and we lost to them at Kinnick.

How in the **** did Ferentz keep his job after that game?
 
One thing I thought of this morning that doesn't really have a place in the item and is just a coincidence...

Kirk Ferentz's last decade at Iowa has yielded a Big Ten record of two games over .500.
Tom Davis' last decade at Iowa yielded a Big Ten record of two games over .500
pZLjI.png
 
For me, the frustration has alot to do with how bad the big ten is right now and we can't take advantage of it. if we were losing to top 25 teams and had a tough schedule on the way to a 8 win season, i could live with it. the teams were losing to are so incredibly average and it's always in the same way. I went to 8 games this year and I will be going to 8 less next year and every year after until ferentz is done. I feel like im wasting my money and time going. My favorite part of iowa football used to be tailgating with friends and family from 6 AM till game time and then coming back after the game and continuing that celebration. Now it's more like a weekly bitchfest trying to figure out how we will lose before the game and then trying to figure out why we lost after the game. The experience has lost its luster.
 
Jon, not that you aren't busy enough but I'd be curious to see the stats and correlation to our recruiting rank versus wins. I am guessing they parallel each other should anybody follow it but Alabama is always ranked number 1 recruiting and there is no shock that they are usually number one in the polls. If my memory serves me correct the last 4 years we consistently have a recruiting rank between 40-60. Just would be interesting and worth bringing up to Kirk in a question and answer session. Bet he'd be blindsided to such stats.
Correct. You can't steal a bunch of MAC recruits year after year and expect to compete for conference championships.
 
Speaking of ISU:

Iowa scored 17 points against ISU this year.

ISU will finish 2-10 this year.

NO OTHER team ISU played scored less than 30 points on them. ISU would be an average sub division team and we lost to them at Kinnick.

How in the **** did Ferentz keep his job after that game?
I posted after that game that no other opponent of ISU would score fewer than we did. Nice to know they all easily outdid that. It's outrageous any way you look at it.
 
I posted after that game that no other opponent of ISU would score fewer than we did. Nice to know they all easily outdid that. It's outrageous any way you look at it.

Our non-conf schedule has not been the toughest around overall. It's ISU, then two MAC-like teams/UNI-ish teams, then an FBS team that usually is not a world-beater (Pitt and Syracuse come to mind, though Arizona was a little tougher than our usual). Minimum, EVERY YEAR, we should win 3/4 of those games. I'd say that MOST years we should win all four.

Our B10 schedule is going to usually supply 2-4 losses, but my goal would always be to be 5-3 minimum. That's losing to Wisconsin, OSU, and Nebraska, but beating NW, Illini, IU, Minnesota, and Maryland. Or something like that. But certainly do-able.

Putting these together: it should be expected that, most seasons, we would win 8/12 reg season games. That's maybe going 5-3 in the B10 and dropping a non-conf game, or going 4-4 in the B10 and winning all 4 non-conf games. That's NOT too much to ask from a $4 mil/year coach.

In other words, looking at the teams we schedule year in and out, there's already 6 should-wins on the schedule: 3 non-conf games plus 3 B10 games (teams like IU, Illini, and Purdue). You only then have to win 2/6 games against 'real' opponents to make the required 8 wins. Well, we don't do this very often anymore, just once since 2009 ended. At any other school, this would likely mean a coaching change.
 
When coach salary, facility and revenue are top notch and the BIG is down and the results are average it sounds like we're under performing.
 
Jon, not that you aren't busy enough but I'd be curious to see the stats and correlation to our recruiting rank versus wins. I am guessing they parallel each other should anybody follow it but Alabama is always ranked number 1 recruiting and there is no shock that they are usually number one in the polls. If my memory serves me correct the last 4 years we consistently have a recruiting rank between 40-60. Just would be interesting and worth bringing up to Kirk in a question and answer session. Bet he'd be blindsided to such stats.


I thought the same thing exactly!! Jon, when you were posting the areas that Iowa is top 25 in, one of those is definitely not recruiting. Typically, for Iowa to have a better than average season, we need many "great stories" to emerge as Kirk would put it. Early on in Kirk's tenure, we had enough of those to put us over that edge (Bob Sanders, Matt Roth, Robert Gallery, Brad Banks, Dallas Clark, etc...) This year, and many years in recent memory, we just have not had enough these great stories. What we're left with is a top 40-60 recruiting effort and, therefore, a top 40-60 result on the field.
 
KF is 7-9 vs ISU
HF was 15-1 his last 16 years.
ISU is 6-2 vs Iowa and Kansas the last 4 years. 5-29 against all other Big 5 conf schools. Iowa and Kansas represent over half of ISU's wins vs Big 5 conf schools.
 
Speaking of ISU:

Iowa scored 17 points against ISU this year.

ISU will finish 2-10 this year.

NO OTHER team ISU played scored less than 30 points on them. ISU would be an average sub division team and we lost to them at Kinnick.

How in the **** did Ferentz keep his job after that game?

Good question. Most teams have over 17 points by halftime against ISU. As a matter of fact, I think they all did.
 

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