The April US jobs released - in regards to inflation, etc

[uihawk82]

The report was just released. Jobs added totaled right at 430,000 and unemployment remained the same at 3.6%. Those are both really good numbers. I heard on another news outlet a few days ago that there are still many millions of open jobs. Which leads right into the news mentioned I heard just now with the jobs report release that average wages over the last year are increasing at a 5.5% rate. So yes, inflation for the last year was about 7.5% which means workers are losing a couple of percent on average in their purchasing power.

What else do you feel is happening in the US economic picture?

With so many jobs open that a person could jump to, I would say if you haven't received a decent raise in the last year you better go ask for one or find a job with one. Many companies have been making tons of profit during covid the last two years from what news reports I have heard. So go get your part of the pie.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I am long the stock market (total market) and a fair number of stonks that I think are fairly defensive that I don't mind holding forever, but I have 20 years until retirement. I think we're gonna see an absolute fucking meltdown in equity and fixed income markets though.

Fixed income is already getting crushed, but I stay with it because if shit gets bad and we have a deflationary spiral you want those bonds around. On stocks I quit my monthly auto investing at some point last year when the market was up 25% and I'm glad I did it because the cash chest is looking nice now. But I think interest rates and bond yields falling so low in 2009 has the potential to absolutely skullfuck a bunch of boomers.

It used to be you could save up a bunch of money, then move your allocation to 60, 70, 80% bonds as you neared or got into retirement and just live off the interest. But the Fed made that impossible unless you have several million dollars. I think a lot of older people were somewhat forced into unsuitably high stock allocations due to non-existent bond yields and I think a lot of them are going to get toilet paper hands and start selling as they see their portfolios evaporating. There are also a lot of Millennials in the market who think they are investing gurus because they made money during a massive bull market. Those kids are gonna get toilet paper hands as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we take a few years to get back to the index highs and come close to 3000 (or even break under 3000) on the S&P 500.

Long term everything will be fine, but the macroeconomic conditions are very similar to 2007. Insane housing bubble and super high gas prices that will crush consumer spending. It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

 

[uihawk82]

I am long the stock market (total market) and a fair number of stonks that I think are fairly defensive that I don't mind holding forever, but I have 20 years until retirement. I think we're gonna see an absolute fucking meltdown in equity and fixed income markets though.

Long term everything will be fine, but the macroeconomic conditions are very similar to 2007. Insane housing bubble and super high gas prices that will crush consumer spending. It's going to be an interesting couple of years.

Yeah, the stock and bond markets are a crapshoot. Several rich people can start buying or selling stocks and really move the needle. I always had about 75% in medium to mid-higher risk mutual funds (never had the time to dedicate to individual stocks), I might take a flyer with some money on a higher risk stock, and 20% in safer instruments. The overall long range markets have done well for most of us.

But as I got into my 60's I started moving to safer. lower risk investments and when I retired in 2019 I went to mainly CDs which can just cover cost of living increases plus a bit.

I was 68 when covid hit and the markets crashed and I was tempted to invest with equities and find the lower points but I said F it, I dont have the stomach for that anymore.

 

[uihawk82]

I see HyVee is eliminating about 57 more corp office jobs. Those people may move on but at least there might be a lot of jobs for them to seek since they are already in the Des Moines area.

I think I will go back and look at the Baltic Dry container index like I used to follow a long time ago as that index plus production indexes of packaging material are good indicators of what the experts think about economic growth, shipping, and packaging.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The report was just released. Jobs added totaled right at 430,000 and unemployment remained the same at 3.6%. Those are both really good numbers. I heard on another news outlet a few days ago that there are still many millions of open jobs. Which leads right into the news mentioned I heard just now with the jobs report release that average wages over the last year are increasing at a 5.5% rate. So yes, inflation for the last year was about 7.5% which means workers are losing a couple of percent on average in their purchasing power.

What else do you feel is happening in the US economic picture?

With so many jobs open that a person could jump to, I would say if you haven't received a decent raise in the last year you better go ask for one or find a job with one. Many companies have been making tons of profit during covid the last two years from what news reports I have heard. So go get your part of the pie.

I don't know. Are they all full-time providing benefits or part-time added into that. With inflation, very logical to presume that people know they can't make it on the free coffers alone.
Just talked with a gal at work who had a MediaConn service guy at their place and he was bitching that they usually have a crew of 18 and only have 8 at this time. Can't find anybody.

To be completely honest, I'm not sure what to believe at this point. It seems whoever reports can skew the numbers or cherry pick to drive their agenda. All I know is there is no confidence out there.

 

[uihawk82]

I don't know. Are they all full-time providing benefits or part-time added into that. With inflation, very logical to presume that people know they can't make it on the free coffers alone.
Just talked with a gal at work who had a MediaConn service guy at their place and he was bitching that they usually have a crew of 18 and only have 8 at this time. Can't find anybody.

To be completely honest, I'm not sure what to believe at this point. It seems whoever reports can skew the numbers or cherry pick to drive their agenda. All I know is there is no confidence out there.

We do not always know all the metrics and categories the Labor Dept uses for these reports, etc. If a person wants to know they can find that info but I am with you that I wish they would define the numbers better.

I can see why a lot of people do not want to climb poles in all kinds of weather to hook up or troubleshoot cable services. Hard and can be dangerous and I bet they do not get paid all that well. The avg pay is $16-17 an hour which is not a whole lot.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

We do not always know all the metrics and categories the Labor Dept uses for these reports, etc. If a person wants to know they can find that info but I am with you that I wish they would define the numbers better.

I can see why a lot of people do not want to climb poles in all kinds of weather to hook up or troubleshoot cable services. Hard and can be dangerous and I bet they do not get paid all that well. The avg pay is $16-17 an hour which is not a whole lot.

I agree but what is a major difference is that it is the mindset of people now compared to the past. People in the past had to do jobs they didn't like because THEY HAD TO, to provide. There were much tougher jobs in the past as far as manual labor. Advances have helped with as far as technology. Now, as careers as police officers or teachers, I think that is more difficult today, with policing being much more dangerous.

People had to provide back then, and the mindset of workers, our grandparents and many of our parents, was completely different.

As far as the metrics for comparing, yes, I would like more standardization. For example, the metrics to measure the CPI changes. The CPI over time evolved from a costs of goods index to a cost of living index, which can report a lower CPI/inflation that is really happening.

 

[HawkGold]

I agree but what is a major difference is that it is the mindset of people now compared to the past. People in the past had to do jobs they didn't like because THEY HAD TO, to provide. There were much tougher jobs in the past as far as manual labor. Advances have helped with as far as technology. Now, as careers as police officers or teachers, I think that is more difficult today, with policing being much more dangerous.

People had to provide back then, and the mindset of workers, our grandparents and many of our parents, was completely different.

As far as the metrics for comparing, yes, I would like more standardization. For example, the metrics to measure the CPI changes. The CPI over time evolved from a costs of goods index to a cost of living index, which can report a lower CPI/inflation that is really happening.

What you can't really factor is the money factory from the Fed.

Better than the unemployment rate is participation and that dipped. A lot of info will come out tomorrow and we'll have a better idea. Bernanke is now talking about how bad it was to delay interest rate climbs.

We are starting at a lower threshold, but people forget how fast rates increased under late Carter and early Reagan. We have a real problem.

2nd quarter numbers will tell us about a recession.

Cost of living cpi doesn't really adequately measure what families are dealing with.

What we have going for us is the dollar still is king and will continue to do just that.

The US/Russia/China have been at economic war for some time. China is a hot mess.

Did you watch China Hustle?

 

[uihawk82]

What you can't really factor is the money factory from the Fed.

Better than the unemployment rate is participation and that dipped. A lot of info will come out tomorrow and we'll have a better idea. Bernanke is now talking about how bad it was to delay interest rate climbs.

Yeah, the Fed was holding tight I think because they didnt want the politicians on both sides to scream at them for making money tighter and more expensive, for probably cooling the economy which is not good when you are the party in power.

 

[HawkGold]

Yeah, the Fed was holding tight I think because they didnt want the politicians on both sides to scream at them for making money tighter and more expensive, for probably cooling the economy which is not good when you are the party in power.

Being friendly... that is a naive way of looking at the Fed. The whole banking system is quite corrupt from small local banks on up to the Fed. Yes of course there are ethical people and ethical banks, but in general there is a lot of truth to the corruption. A local 11 Bn dollar bank prides itself and sells itself to the community as being so good at internal audits that the regulators leave them alone. That's a total joke.

The NCAA isn't the only organization with corruption.

Fed to ban policymakers from owning individual stocks, restrict trading following controversy

The Federal Reserve announced Thursday a ban on officials owning individual stocks and limits on other activities as well.

www.cnbc.com

Maybe what we are seeing now is the correction from being called out, but no, it still is going on I would imagine.

The US just isn't the apple pie place we were all led to believe in school classes.