Story: How Hawkeyes Match Up with Purdue from Recruiting Standpoint

[PCHawk]

Not to degrade the article in any way, but it really doesn't really have much relevance. What the article tells you is that there are no 5 star players on either team, no one-and-doners, and the 3 and 4 stars just tell you that these guys have potential. Usually from year to year, beyond the first 10 kids in a recruiting class it is a crap shoot as to how they develop, and this is true at any stage. If the prognosticators were so good wouldn't they be able to evaluate the NBA draft classes much better, especially when the fish bowl is so much smaller? But it is the same way, beyond the first 3-5 picks there are busts, there are hall of famers and everywhere in between. So how can you evaluate a bunch of high school kids that aren't elite? Its just a guess.

What I see as the difference between Purdue and Iowa is that Purdue was able to do a little better job on assembling complimentary talent. Edwards is both quick and can shoot, a deadly combination. He is a volume scorer but he knows his role in that he has to shoot a lot in order to free everyone else up. He can get in the paint and shoot threes. When Edwards is being focused on, Cline can shoot. He can spot up or shoot off the dribble. Not terribly athletic but he is a great compliment to Edwards because you cant cheat off either one. In their 3 guard lineup, Eastern is their lockdown defender and will always take the other teams best guard option. He doesn't shoot many threes, but he can drive, has a midrange game, and is incredibly versatile in any lineup. Haarms gives them rim protection and some interior offense to make the other teams honest and not play small. Eifert and Williams give them different looks at the 4 and are solid players. The unit puts a lot of pressure on teams because of their complete and complimentary talents. You can play them any way you want and they have a way of countering that. Play zone, they will shoot it and shoot it well. Man them up and Edwards will go to the rim and eat you alive.

Us? We sorely lack perimeter quickness and thus ball pressure on our guards shuts our offense down to a halt because we cant get to the rim. And defensively, we dont have a rim protector. A quick point guard that can penetrate and defend would give us a ton of versatility that we dont have right now. We all know this.

Lets see how this looks next year, because if Joe T can provide some quickness, toughness and defensive skills and Nunge can give us a stretch 5 look, and Cook comes back, we will be a much more complete team.

A team can get away with having a point guard that cant penetrate as long as their shooting guard can. Moss and Bohannon is a really bad combination of guards. The sum of them is considerably worse than the parts.

 

[ArvadaHawk]

there is a part of me that wonders why other teams always "make that play" while some don't. it would be a hard thing to explain or identify, but i think it would be a combination of having that extra "eye" for the kid that finishes, consistently. then, coaching your team to finish, consistently. not sure that is explaining it right, but MSU, PU and UM all seem to "get that lucky bounce, or make that shot or free throw." it takes coaching talent to find the players that will succeed in "the moment" and then to also coach them to excel in "the moment." don't think iowa has done that consistently, at all. but, to me, that is the difference. for example: end of UT game where cook is wide open under the basket and you just know he's going to score and/or get fouled. except he gets stripped. THAT is the moment in which iowa routinely fails.

 

[Robowe]

Here ya go:
Anyone know where one can find non-con strength of schedule?

Painter:

First 9 seasons at Purdue
Overall: 191-112 (.630) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 160-96 (.625)
B1G: 89-69 (.563) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 77-49 (.611)

6 NCAA appearances, 2 sweet sixteens

3 seasons prior to Painter: (Keady)
Overall: 19-11, 17-14, 7-21 (43-46) (.483)
B1G: 10-6, 7-9, 3-13 (20-28) (.416)

-------------------------

Fran:

9 seasons at Iowa
Overall: 174-132 (.569) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 145-95 (.604)
B1G: 79-86 (.488) ----- removing first 2 seasons: 67-62 (.519)

4 NCAA appearances

3 seasons prior to Fran: (Lickliter)
Overall: 13-19, 15-16, 10-22 (38-57) (.400)
B1G: 6-12, 5-13, 4-14 (15-39) (.278)

Again, what do you think of Painter's year 8 and 9 (2 under .500 seasons with no tournament)? Since a lot of folks wanted Fran gone after last year, would you have been in favor of retaining Painter after those 2 seasons? Did his 1st 7 seasons buy him that long of a leash?

 

[PCHawk]

Here ya go:
Anyone know where one can find non-con strength of schedule?

Painter:

First 9 seasons at Purdue
Overall: 191-112 (.630) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 160-96 (.625)
B1G: 89-69 (.563) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 77-49 (.611)

6 NCAA appearances, 2 sweet sixteens

3 seasons prior to Painter: (Keady)
Overall: 19-11, 17-14, 7-21 (43-46) (.483)
B1G: 10-6, 7-9, 3-13 (20-28) (.416)

-------------------------

Fran:

9 seasons at Iowa
Overall: 174-132 (.569) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 145-95 (.604)
B1G: 79-86 (.488) ----- removing first 2 seasons: 67-62 (.519)

4 NCAA appearances

3 seasons prior to Fran: (Lickliter)
Overall: 13-19, 15-16, 10-22 (38-57) (.400)
B1G: 6-12, 5-13, 4-14 (15-39) (.278)

So Painter won 10 more conference games over a 7 year stretch. When you consider he had a lot more to work with it's really not that far off. Taking away the first 2 years is good for roster turnover. But after 2 years, Fran was still recruiting to a program that was complete garbage 2 years earlier. That's not easy to do. Especially at a place like Iowa. I think after 9 years, the Lick excuse is totally gone for future results. But the Lick excuse still holds water when discussing past results.

 

[dirtwrap]

A team can get away with having a point guard that cant penetrate as long as their shooting guard can. Moss and Bohannon is a really bad combination of guards. The sum of them is considerably worse than the parts.

You are right, somebody has to be able to penetrate. My comment of having a quick point guard that could defend and penetrate was referencing Joe Toussaint. But yes, I agree with you in that the Jbo/Moss combination is less than ideal, especially when Moss decides to disappear.

 

[tksirius]

Again, what do you think of Painter's year 8 and 9 (2 under .500 seasons with no tournament)? Since a lot of folks wanted Fran gone after last year, would you have been in favor of retaining Painter after those 2 seasons? Did his 1st 7 seasons buy him that long of a leash?

Yes, 6 NCAA appearances and 2 Sweet Sixteens in his first 7 years bought him that long of a leash.

Here ya go:
Anyone know where one can find non-con strength of schedule?

Painter:

First 9 seasons at Purdue
Overall: 191-112 (.630) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 160-96 (.625)
B1G: 89-69 (.563) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 77-49 (.611)

6 NCAA appearances, 2 sweet sixteens

3 seasons prior to Painter: (Keady)
Overall: 19-11, 17-14, 7-21 (43-46) (.483)
B1G: 10-6, 7-9, 3-13 (20-28) (.416)

-------------------------

Fran:

9 seasons at Iowa
Overall: 174-132 (.569) ----- removing first 2 seasons= 145-95 (.604)
B1G: 79-86 (.488) ----- removing first 2 seasons: 67-62 (.519)

4 NCAA appearances

3 seasons prior to Fran: (Lickliter)
Overall: 13-19, 15-16, 10-22 (38-57) (.400)
B1G: 6-12, 5-13, 4-14 (15-39) (.278)

Ok, here are the average Non-Con Strength of Schedules for the first 9 seasons:

Painter= 74.125
Fran= 83.22

 

[RobHowe]

 

[Robowe]

Yes, 6 NCAA appearances and 2 Sweet Sixteens in his first 7 years bought him that long of a leash.


Ok, here are the average Non-Con Strength of Schedules for the first 9 seasons:

Painter= 74.125
Fran= 83.22

Fair enough.

Fun trivia fact ... Fran's last game at Siena was a loss in the 2010 NCAA Tournament 1st round vs ... Purdue (Matt Painter's 5th year at Purdue). Siena led at half 32-29 before Purdue came back to win 72-64.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2010-03-19-purdue.html

 

[Grady]

This is a great thread! Thanks to tksirius for compiling the details. The 'first 9 years' of Painter/McCaffery is an interesting comparison. Considering that Iowa's program had fallen much farther than Purdue's when each coach took over, the difference is less than I expected. I do remember thinking at Painter's 8-9 year point that 'he's gone'. If Fran can put together a 2-4 year run of consecutive NCAA tourney teams (including this year) going forward, I think the pressure will be off him. Just 1 or 2 Sweet 16s and he can retire here. Assuming, of course, he can learn to control his temper better than most middle school kids.

 

[tksirius]

Considering that Iowa's program had fallen much farther than Purdue's when each coach took over, the difference is less than I expected.

Was it really, though?
Keady's last season was 7-21. His last 2 were 24-35.
Lick's last season was 10-22. His last 2 were 25-38.

 

[UncleHawk]

Coaching is certainly an element. And Painter is one of the best in the business, who some Purdue fans wanted to run off a few years ago, BTW.

I had someone on Twitter suggest that if Iowa could get Edwards for one of it's guards, that would make all the difference. Obviously, the kid is one of the top college players right now.

I wonder if the better trade might be Edwards for Cook. They have a comparable pedigree. And I'm just talking from a recruiting standpoint. No way Purdue makes that trade right now.

The right blend. We’ve got the same * level. But Purdue has more choices in their location to find the right blend and Iowa has had to recruit harder to get to that point in their state.

 

[lightning1]

So Painter won 10 more conference games over a 7 year stretch. When you consider he had a lot more to work with it's really not that far off. Taking away the first 2 years is good for roster turnover. But after 2 years, Fran was still recruiting to a program that was complete garbage 2 years earlier. That's not easy to do. Especially at a place like Iowa. I think after 9 years, the Lick excuse is totally gone for future results. But the Lick excuse still holds water when discussing past results.

Just stop. Did you see Keady's last 3 seasons @ Purdue? Not even Lickliter got to as few as 3 BIG wins in a season.

 

[PCHawk]

Just stop. Did you see Keady's last 3 seasons @ Purdue? Not even Lickliter got to as few as 3 BIG wins in a season.

One terrible season doesn't destroy a program. Please tell me you're not trying to argue Purdue and Iowa were in the same spot after their last coach left.

 

[tksirius]

One terrible season doesn't destroy a program. Please tell me you're not trying to argue Purdue and Iowa were in the same spot after their last coach left.

Keady's last season overall was 7-21 (B1G was 3-13). His last 2 overall were 24-35 (B1G was 10-22).

Lick's last season overall was 10-22 (B1G was 4-14). His last 2 overall were 25-38 (B1G was 9-27).

Those numbers don't look very different.

 

[HuckFinn]

I also think Cook spent his entire off season trying to turn his weaknesses into strengths instead of focusing on making his strengths even better and maybe his weaknesses a little less bad. When the season came around, he tried to showcase his weaknesses instead of showcasing his strengths. That would be like if Bohannon quit shooting 3s and spent the whole season trying to show he could penetrate. I think that miscalculation by Cook and Fran hurt the team a bit.

Really good point about TC. Had not thought about that.

 

[earlhamhawk]

Keady's last season overall was 7-21 (B1G was 3-13). His last 2 overall were 24-35 (B1G was 10-22).

Lick's last season overall was 10-22 (B1G was 4-14). His last 2 overall were 25-38 (B1G was 9-27).

Those numbers don't look very different.

Hate to use frans words but you have to look at “body of work” as a program comparing the Keady/painter era 1980- to present there’s a lot of continuity and consistency as a program during that time compared to the Olson/raveling/Davis/Alford/ Lickliter/McCaffrey era during the same time period.comparing Keady’s last 3 years to Lickliter’s 3 Is short sighted in determining who had the worse starting point,now if you want to argue who Is the better coach you won’t find me sticking up for Fran at this time as Purdue is still playing,but fortunes change year to year

 

[tksirius]

Hate to use frans words but you have to look at “body of work” as a program comparing the Keady/painter era 1980- to present there’s a lot of continuity and consistency as a program during that time compared to the Olson/raveling/Davis/Alford/ Lickliter/McCaffrey era during the same time period.comparing Keady’s last 3 years to Lickliter’s 3 Is short sighted in determining who had the worse starting point,now if you want to argue who Is the better coach you won’t find me sticking up for Fran at this time as Purdue is still playing,but fortunes change year to year

You do realize Purdue didn't have shit for practice facilities during Painter's first 6 seasons, right?

 

[smitharooney]

It’s not even a comparison.

 

[lightning1]

One terrible season doesn't destroy a program. Please tell me you're not trying to argue Purdue and Iowa were in the same spot after their last coach left.

Some people will make excuses out of anything. Any opportunity. You're that guy.

 

[lightning1]

The fact is that Iowa doesn't want to compete in big boy basketball. They made that decision decades ago.