SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 3
Last week: 5-5
Overall: 11-9 (55% winners)
Best bets: 2-0
Odds based on opening lines and home team in all CAPS
Massachusetts +21 over MICHIGAN
Classic letdown spot here for the Wolverines coming off two consecutive emotional wins on national television and needing to rest some guys, especially Denard Robinson. Expect a somewhat sluggish effort. Michigan 38, Massachusetts 21
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -4 over Kansas
The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. When a Conference USA team is favored over a Big 12 squad, especially one that just defeated a ranked BCS conference team at home, you have to take notice. Southern Mississippi 24, Kansas 14
GEORGIA -3 over Arkansas
The Bulldogs looked horrible last week and are unranked. Arkansas is ranked with a quarterback being talked about as a top 10 NFL draft pick. Yet Georgia is the favorite? Somebody knows something I don’t know. All the trends favor Arkansas, especially Georgia covering just 10 of their last 28 home games as a favorite, but the Dawgs will be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start in the SEC. Georgia 27, Arkansas 21
NORTH CAROLINA -1 over Georgia Tech
I typically love one point favorites at home, but especially when they’re coming off a bye week and it’s the second straight road game for the opponent. Tar Heels are expected to get some of their suspended players back this week. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 20
Maryland +13 over WEST VIRGINIA
Under Bill Stewart the Mountaineers are just 2-11 ATS as a favorite and have covered just two of their last nine at home. Maryland already has three tailbacks that have rushed for 100 yards this season. West Virginia 21, Maryland 17
MINNESOTA +13.5 over Southern California
This is a spread that doesn’t make sense when you consider how bad the Gophers are. But if you look closer you see a Trojan squad leading the nation in penalties, and USC is just 1-8 ATS on the road recently and just 5-12 in their last 17 on the road as a double-digit favorite. Minnesota 23, USC 21
WASHINGTON +4 over Nebraska
A top 10 team is only a four point favorite against an unranked team? Washington has played by far the tougher schedule so far, and it’s the first road start for Taylor Martinez. Husker defense will be tested by Jake Locker, and Washington has covered last three games at home versus ranked teams. Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five road games, and didn’t cover either of its two home games to open 2010. Washington 24, Nebraska 23
Notre Dame +3 over MICHIGAN STATE
Spartans haven’t failed to cover in this series since 2004, but Brian Kelly coached teams are an astounding 12-1 ATS as an underdog. Speaking of Kelly, he was bypassed for the Michigan State job, and is coaching in his home state as the Notre Dame field general for the first time so you can expect him to have his team prepared. Notre Dame 26, Michigan State 24
TEXAS TECH +4 over Texas
Last time the Longhorns ventured to Lubbock in 2008 it cost them a shot at the national title. Texas Tech has covered every game as a home underdog since 2005. Texas has covered just seven of its last 21 games and just seven of its last 19 as a favorite. This is a tough spot for the Longhorns’ new quarterback to make his first road start in primetime. Texas Tech 27, Texas 17
Mississippi State +8.5 over LSU
Strictly a trend pick here, because the Tigers have covered just two of their last 20 games in the SEC at home. That stat is not a misprint. Bulldogs have covered their last two visits to Baton Rouge. Revenge spot for MSU as well after last year’s goal line stand by LSU cost them the game. LSU 20, Mississippi State 14
ARIZONA+1 over Iowa
Arizona still has yet to allow a touchdown, and the Hawkeyes’ defense is terrific. Time change here could be an issue with the late start working against Iowa. It’s been several years since Wildcats hosted a game between two ranked teams, and Arizona Coach Mike Stoops is a former Hawkeye player, so home team should be pumped up—especially after last year’s loss in Iowa City. Trends favor both teams here. Iowa has covered eight straight home games and are 12-3 ATS as an underdog (including 5-0 last year). Meanwhile, Arizona is 13-4 ATS at home since 2007. Iowa has not beaten a ranked non-conference foe on the road since 1976, and its respected defensive coordinator Norm Parker is staying before for health reasons. Arizona 22, Iowa 20
Best Bet—OREGON STATE -16 over Louisville
Beavers have had a week off to stew over the loss to TCU, and Louisville has covered just four of its last 14 road games. Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a double digit home favorite, and are clearly the better team, especially with a young Cardinals squad making the cross-country trip. Oregon State 37, Louisville 10
Last week: 5-5
Overall: 11-9 (55% winners)
Best bets: 2-0
Odds based on opening lines and home team in all CAPS
Massachusetts +21 over MICHIGAN
Classic letdown spot here for the Wolverines coming off two consecutive emotional wins on national television and needing to rest some guys, especially Denard Robinson. Expect a somewhat sluggish effort. Michigan 38, Massachusetts 21
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -4 over Kansas
The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. When a Conference USA team is favored over a Big 12 squad, especially one that just defeated a ranked BCS conference team at home, you have to take notice. Southern Mississippi 24, Kansas 14
GEORGIA -3 over Arkansas
The Bulldogs looked horrible last week and are unranked. Arkansas is ranked with a quarterback being talked about as a top 10 NFL draft pick. Yet Georgia is the favorite? Somebody knows something I don’t know. All the trends favor Arkansas, especially Georgia covering just 10 of their last 28 home games as a favorite, but the Dawgs will be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start in the SEC. Georgia 27, Arkansas 21
NORTH CAROLINA -1 over Georgia Tech
I typically love one point favorites at home, but especially when they’re coming off a bye week and it’s the second straight road game for the opponent. Tar Heels are expected to get some of their suspended players back this week. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 20
Maryland +13 over WEST VIRGINIA
Under Bill Stewart the Mountaineers are just 2-11 ATS as a favorite and have covered just two of their last nine at home. Maryland already has three tailbacks that have rushed for 100 yards this season. West Virginia 21, Maryland 17
MINNESOTA +13.5 over Southern California
This is a spread that doesn’t make sense when you consider how bad the Gophers are. But if you look closer you see a Trojan squad leading the nation in penalties, and USC is just 1-8 ATS on the road recently and just 5-12 in their last 17 on the road as a double-digit favorite. Minnesota 23, USC 21
WASHINGTON +4 over Nebraska
A top 10 team is only a four point favorite against an unranked team? Washington has played by far the tougher schedule so far, and it’s the first road start for Taylor Martinez. Husker defense will be tested by Jake Locker, and Washington has covered last three games at home versus ranked teams. Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five road games, and didn’t cover either of its two home games to open 2010. Washington 24, Nebraska 23
Notre Dame +3 over MICHIGAN STATE
Spartans haven’t failed to cover in this series since 2004, but Brian Kelly coached teams are an astounding 12-1 ATS as an underdog. Speaking of Kelly, he was bypassed for the Michigan State job, and is coaching in his home state as the Notre Dame field general for the first time so you can expect him to have his team prepared. Notre Dame 26, Michigan State 24
TEXAS TECH +4 over Texas
Last time the Longhorns ventured to Lubbock in 2008 it cost them a shot at the national title. Texas Tech has covered every game as a home underdog since 2005. Texas has covered just seven of its last 21 games and just seven of its last 19 as a favorite. This is a tough spot for the Longhorns’ new quarterback to make his first road start in primetime. Texas Tech 27, Texas 17
Mississippi State +8.5 over LSU
Strictly a trend pick here, because the Tigers have covered just two of their last 20 games in the SEC at home. That stat is not a misprint. Bulldogs have covered their last two visits to Baton Rouge. Revenge spot for MSU as well after last year’s goal line stand by LSU cost them the game. LSU 20, Mississippi State 14
ARIZONA+1 over Iowa
Arizona still has yet to allow a touchdown, and the Hawkeyes’ defense is terrific. Time change here could be an issue with the late start working against Iowa. It’s been several years since Wildcats hosted a game between two ranked teams, and Arizona Coach Mike Stoops is a former Hawkeye player, so home team should be pumped up—especially after last year’s loss in Iowa City. Trends favor both teams here. Iowa has covered eight straight home games and are 12-3 ATS as an underdog (including 5-0 last year). Meanwhile, Arizona is 13-4 ATS at home since 2007. Iowa has not beaten a ranked non-conference foe on the road since 1976, and its respected defensive coordinator Norm Parker is staying before for health reasons. Arizona 22, Iowa 20
Best Bet—OREGON STATE -16 over Louisville
Beavers have had a week off to stew over the loss to TCU, and Louisville has covered just four of its last 14 road games. Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a double digit home favorite, and are clearly the better team, especially with a young Cardinals squad making the cross-country trip. Oregon State 37, Louisville 10
