Fryowa
Administrator
8This is a big reason why Iowa is competitive year in and year out. How many coaches have the Clowns blown through during that time?
8This is a big reason why Iowa is competitive year in and year out. How many coaches have the Clowns blown through during that time?
This has more to do with factors outside of a HC’s control than the opposite. Bill Belichick and Nick Saban could take on Navy, Vanderbilt, or Purdue as a joint retirement project and they aren’t going to be able to create the next Bama or Ohio State.Equilibrium.
Not bad enough to be fired.
Not good enough to move on to an elite program.
That's actually lower than I thought
I'm not sure I would say complacency is an issue. A successful high major head coach can not be complacent and win games at the same time. This narrative came in the 5 years from 2010-2014 when we won 8, 7, 4, 8, 7 ( 6.8 wpy) and stuck around through the next 7 years ('15-'21) where we won 12, 8, 8, 9, 10, 6 (covid), and 10 (9.4* wpy). With 6.8 wpy, thinking complacency is an issue is understandable. 9.4? I don't see it. Since 2015, Iowa has the 9th most wins amongst P5 schools.
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Georgia
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Iowa
If you told me that we're going to win 9.4 games per year in the next 6 years, 10th most in P5, sign me up.
*6-2 in covid year has the same winning percentage as 9-3, which is what I used to get 9.4.
This has more to do with factors outside of a HC’s control than the opposite. Bill Belichick and Nick Saban could take on Navy, Vanderbilt, or Purdue as a joint retirement project and they aren’t going to be able to create the next Bama or Ohio State.
Now if Kirk had accepted the Michigan job when they wanted him, so long as he survived the two or three years of initial tumult I believe wholeheartedly he would have built a perennial double digit win team. He’s damn near done that at Iowa for fucks sake, but Nebraska, Iowa, and the like have to realize where their ceiling lies over any long period of time, and it’s not “elite” in any exclusive sense.
Teams like ours can go the low variance Iowa/Wisconsin approach or the high variance Purdue/Minnesota approach. We don’t have the luxury of acting like Ohio State.
I have my doubts. Compare Saban at MSU for five seasons to Kirk’s first five or six at Iowa. Which is more impressive? Both walked into remarkably similar situations. If Saban stayed, maybe he does turn that one good season into some sustained success, but then it may just as well have been an outlier.Nick had quietly amassed a pretty damned impressive team at Michigan State. He walked into a tire fire situation and by the end had Plaxico and TJ Duckett and beat Michigan and Ohio in his final year, which was only marred by losses to Drew Brees and Ron Dayne, two of the greatest Big Ten players ever. I don't think he could do much with Navy or Vanderbilt, but if he rolled into some mid tier team he could probably work one more miracle. He's getting pretty old, though.
I stand corrected!My language skills put me more on the Asperger’s spectrum, but right idea.
I have my doubts. Compare Saban at MSU for five seasons to Kirk’s first five or six at Iowa. Which is more impressive? Both walked into remarkably similar situations. If Saban stayed, maybe he does turn that one good season into some sustained success, but then it may just as well have been an outlier.
The Steelers only having 3 coaches in the last 53 years gets a little more run, but Iowa having 2 guys the last 44 years is right there. As a Steeler and Hawkeye fan, you have your frustrations, but you realize stability trumps all of it. It prevents you from being the Browns or the Illini.
Equilibrium.
Not bad enough to be fired.
Not good enough to move on to an elite program.
Another good comparison is Saint Louis Cardnials managers. Except for a brief period of instability in the late 70's they went a half century with four managers. Red Schoendienst, Whitey Herzog, Joe Torre, Tony Larussa. They won world series championships with three of the four.
The Cubs by comparison probably churned through fifteen or twenty managers during that same time frame.
The last time Iowa had someone other than Kirk or Hayden as their head coach ESPN hadn't been created yet and U2 wasn't a band yet. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson had yet to play in the NBA and Tiger Woods was a toddler.
I'm not sure I would say complacency is an issue. A successful high major head coach can not be complacent and win games at the same time. This narrative came in the 5 years from 2010-2014 when we won 8, 7, 4, 8, 7 ( 6.8 wpy) and stuck around through the next 7 years ('15-'21) where we won 12, 8, 8, 9, 10, 6 (covid), and 10 (9.4* wpy). With 6.8 wpy, thinking complacency is an issue is understandable. 9.4? I don't see it. Since 2015, Iowa has the 9th most wins amongst P5 schools.
Alabama
Clemson
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Georgia
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Iowa
If you told me that we're going to win 9.4 games per year in the next 6 years, 10th most in P5, sign me up.
*6-2 in covid year has the same winning percentage as 9-3, which is what I used to get 9.4.
The trouble with KF is that he has been here so long he is competing against himself. Fans always want more and some fans get the sense that the program is stagnant simply because its not 2002 or 2015 every year. If you take out the first couple seasons where the cupboard was damn bare when he arrived, he wins 8+ games a year, and for the last 6 seasons, its closer to 9. That is a pretty salty accomplishment for a school with good but not great tradition, and from a small midwestern state with two Power 5 schools located in it. KF's record is really damn good.
Also, recall that Hayden Fry, who holds God-like status in this state for good reasons, had 7 of his 20 seasons where he was .500 or below. KF's record is better than HF's in almost every measurable respect, and what Fry did was pretty amazing too.
I have said it on this board over and over again. Appreciate what we have. Grasping to move up to that next step can cause you to tumble back down the stairs in a damn fucking hurry. How you doing, Nebraska?
This has more to do with factors outside of a HC’s control than the opposite. Bill Belichick and Nick Saban could take on Navy, Vanderbilt, or Purdue as a joint retirement project and they aren’t going to be able to create the next Bama or Ohio State.
Now if Kirk had accepted the Michigan job when they wanted him, so long as he survived the two or three years of initial tumult I believe wholeheartedly he would have built a perennial double digit win team. He’s damn near done that at Iowa for fucks sake, but Nebraska, Iowa, and the like have to realize where their ceiling lies over any long period of time, and it’s not “elite” in any exclusive sense.
Teams like ours can go the low variance Iowa/Wisconsin approach or the high variance Purdue/Minnesota approach. We don’t have the luxury of acting like Ohio State.
I'm generally a big Kirk fan. The only issue with that kind of longevity (which can also include the AD or top jobs in the administration) is that it can lead to an insular climate. I think it is typically a good idea to have some eventual turnover in leadership positions to ensure healthy checks and balances. That didn't happen at Penn State, and I think Iowa has faced issues because of it too.
I'm curious to see how the 40 plus years of stability impacts the next coaching transition.
I would say that there were a couple of times where some programs would have considered making a change that Iowa didn't. KF built up so much good will with those 3 straight top 10 seasons that when we hit that dip in 06-07 that was going to be overlooked.Also, it is security or complacency? Two very different things.
The great Nick Saban was at Michigan State for a cup of tea. I remember Kirk Ferentz beating his Mich St. team, at least once. This supports your point above.