What about based only on the 3 criteria I laid out?
What about those criteria. Well, they don't have much to do with credentials & qualifications, or potential for success--or anything else that directly affects how a coach can win in any particular program.
A better approach might be to simply take note of the most obvious difference between the two hires. McCaffery has extensive experience as a coach, he has had great success, he already is demonstrating skills at managing his time & priorities, the ability to organize a program. Hoiberg has no coaching experience, no record of success, no demonstrated capacity for developing & administering a program, no evidence that he knows how to choose a staff & how to identify their roles & maximize their talents.
In other words, McCaffery was a sensible choice of an experienced coach with an obvious strong work ethic and a record of having success in developing programs that have not been winning much in recent years--like the Iowa Hawkeyes. Hoiberg is tabla rosa--many promising personal qualities, a smart, personable, capable young man without a resume--and undeniably a gamble.
As an ancient fool, a comparison from the long ago past comes to mind from the outset: Hoiberg is rather similar to Iowa hiring Sharm Scheuerman; McCaffery's career is very reminiscent of Ralph Miller, the veteran of years of high school & mid-major coaching that the Hawkeyes bring in to restore a program that had fallen from the Final Four to shambles in less than a decade.
After two mistakes in Alford & Lickliter, Iowa took the prudent course of trying to match up a coaching selection who fit the situation and the needs of a program that has struggled for a decade. After four even more dubious coaching choices, Iowa State has taken the risky path of gambling that AD Pollard is astute enough to weigh the potential of an unprepared novice to have the natural qualities and aptitudes of a born coaching great that will more than compensate for his lack of experience and the necessity of on-the-job training. At Iowa, we're acutely aware from the Alford nightmare of the perils of putting the program in the hands of a guy learning OJT---
But Hoiberg seems to be the quintessential nice guy, much more aware that he has to grow to fill the requirements of the job, more inclined to learn & less needful of feeding his own arrogance. Like Alford, he is likely to benefit from patience his first few years; perhaps unlike Alford, he will not alienate his employer and the fans, will be careful to keep the respect and good will of the press and the public.
If Moo U feels that it has no real alternative but to gamble, Hoiberg appears to be the best long-term, long-shot wager they could choose. Still, the real questions are (a) did they need to gamble (could they not find a successful, experienced coach who would be attracted by a big contract to coach in a good institution is a high-major conference with a solid fan base)? and (b) can they afford to gamble in their present situation (a track record or disreputable or failed coaches for well over a decade, too many marginal gypsy recruits, chaos in a program of growing instability)?