I just hope his attitude doesn't extend upon his own goals and aspirations or the rest of his family. The defeatist attitude can be contagious, unfortunately.But for Jon to act as if we're stuck where we are because that's how things have gone for the last 25+ years is such defeatist, little-man syndrome. We can do better....plenty of other programs have shown that.
To determine what it's going to take to win at Iowa, I think requires analysis of other programs that managed to break out of obscurity or once proud programs who languished for years to become good/great programs. To that end, here are some programs that did that over the last 25 or so years:
1. UConn. Between 1979 and 1990, they made exactly 0 NCAA tournaments. Jim Calhoun was hired in 1986 from Northeastern, with his first UConn team going 9-19. By his 4th year, 1990, he got them into the NCAAs as a #1 seed, reaching the Elite 8. They then made 20 tournaments in the next 26 years, with 6 Final Fours and 4 titles.
2. Gonzaga - Before 1999, no one had heard of Gonzaga. Dan Monson was hired in 1997 and by his 3rd year (1999), they were in the NCAA tournament as a #10 seed and made it all the way to the Elite 8. Then Mark Few was hired and in the next 20 years, they made 9 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, a Final Four and a Nat'l Title game.
3. Villanova - Between 1977 and 1984, they made 4 Elite 8s, a Final 4 and a Nat'l title. Then, for the next 20 years, they languished just above .500 overall. Jay Wright was hired in 2001, by his 3rd year he had them in the Sweet 16, and for the next 14 years he made 8 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 3 Final 4s, and 2 Nat'l Titles.
4. Wichita State - Between 1985 and 2011, they made a grand total of 4 NCAA tournaments, with 3 of them being 1st round exits. In 2007, they hired Gregg Marshall and by his 5th season, they made the NCAAs and after that he's gotten them to 7 straight NCAA tournaments, 2 Sweet 16s and a Final 4.
5. Michigan - In a span of 15 seasons between 1995 and 2009, they did absolutely nothing. They made 3 NCAAs (their last in 1998 before 2009) and won a grand total of 1 game. John Beilein is hired in 2007 and by Year 2 is back in the NCAAs and by Year 6 is in the NCAA title game. All told, he's made 4 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 2 Final 4s and 2 Nat'l Title games.
6. Wisconsin - Other than the crazy year in 2000 when they made the Final 4, Wisconsin basketball was an absolute doormat. From 1979 (modern day of NCAA tournament) until 2001, a span of 22 years, they made the NCAAs a grand total of 5 times. They hire Bo Ryan in 2001 and from Year 1 until his retirement, he made the NCAAs every year, with 7 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 2 Final 4s, and 1 Nat'l Title game.
There is nothing to suggest that Iowa can't be like one of the above teams....regardless of what Jon might say in his podcasts. While college basketball might be a game of guards, it's really a game of coaches. The above 6 teams show that, with the right coach, a doormat program can move up to one of the elite programs....or the right coach can take a once good program that's stuck in the mud, and make them elite again.
If you look at the timeframe of the above programs, it's taken on avg 3 years for the right coach to get the program trending in the right direction. The problem with Fran is that, while things were trending within that timeframe, he wasn't able to sustain it within the season. How different would our program look right now if 13-14, 14-15, and 15-16 had been able to be sustained? We would have gotten better seeds which may have led to one or more Sweet 16s, which may have led to better recruits, and then you're off an running. In my mind, Fran had his opportunity and wasn't able to grab hold of it. That's why the extension made absolutely no sense on any level.
But for Jon to act as if we're stuck where we are because that's how things have gone for the last 25+ years is such defeatist, little-man syndrome. We can do better....plenty of other programs have shown that.
I guess for me it boils down to my last statement in the above post.
Iowa has to give recruits a reason to come here other than where they're from. If I had a 5* kid who was choosing between Michigan, Indiana, MSU, and Iowa, I sure as hell wouldn't tell him to take Iowa because he's from here.
Different sport but look at Noah Fant...
He chose Iowa over his home state program. He did it because he felt Iowa was a better fit, and look at the shape their program is in. It's hot garbage, similar to our basketball team. Iowa has put a ton of TEs in the NFL too. Clark, Moeaki, Chandler, Myers, Fiedorowicz, Kittle, Krieger-Coble...others...
And now, in large part due to where he went to college, Fant will be the next one on the list. He jumped ship on Nebraska because we had way more to offer him.
Those are the kinds of things that are going to get and keep 5* talent in state. I don't see it happening for the Hawks b-ball.
To determine what it's going to take to win at Iowa, I think requires analysis of other programs that managed to break out of obscurity or once proud programs who languished for years to become good/great programs. To that end, here are some programs that did that over the last 25 or so years:
1. UConn. Between 1979 and 1990, they made exactly 0 NCAA tournaments. Jim Calhoun was hired in 1986 from Northeastern, with his first UConn team going 9-19. By his 4th year, 1990, he got them into the NCAAs as a #1 seed, reaching the Elite 8. They then made 20 tournaments in the next 26 years, with 6 Final Fours and 4 titles.
2. Gonzaga - Before 1999, no one had heard of Gonzaga. Dan Monson was hired in 1997 and by his 3rd year (1999), they were in the NCAA tournament as a #10 seed and made it all the way to the Elite 8. Then Mark Few was hired and in the next 20 years, they made 9 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, a Final Four and a Nat'l Title game.
3. Villanova - Between 1977 and 1984, they made 4 Elite 8s, a Final 4 and a Nat'l title. Then, for the next 20 years, they languished just above .500 overall. Jay Wright was hired in 2001, by his 3rd year he had them in the Sweet 16, and for the next 14 years he made 8 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 3 Final 4s, and 2 Nat'l Titles.
4. Wichita State - Between 1985 and 2011, they made a grand total of 4 NCAA tournaments, with 3 of them being 1st round exits. In 2007, they hired Gregg Marshall and by his 5th season, they made the NCAAs and after that he's gotten them to 7 straight NCAA tournaments, 2 Sweet 16s and a Final 4.
5. Michigan - In a span of 15 seasons between 1995 and 2009, they did absolutely nothing. They made 3 NCAAs (their last in 1998 before 2009) and won a grand total of 1 game. John Beilein is hired in 2007 and by Year 2 is back in the NCAAs and by Year 6 is in the NCAA title game. All told, he's made 4 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 2 Final 4s and 2 Nat'l Title games.
6. Wisconsin - Other than the crazy year in 2000 when they made the Final 4, Wisconsin basketball was an absolute doormat. From 1979 (modern day of NCAA tournament) until 2001, a span of 22 years, they made the NCAAs a grand total of 5 times. They hire Bo Ryan in 2001 and from Year 1 until his retirement, he made the NCAAs every year, with 7 Sweet 16s, 3 Elite 8s, 2 Final 4s, and 1 Nat'l Title game.
There is nothing to suggest that Iowa can't be like one of the above teams....regardless of what Jon might say in his podcasts. While college basketball might be a game of guards, it's really a game of coaches. The above 6 teams show that, with the right coach, a doormat program can move up to one of the elite programs....or the right coach can take a once good program that's stuck in the mud, and make them elite again.
If you look at the timeframe of the above programs, it's taken on avg 3 years for the right coach to get the program trending in the right direction. The problem with Fran is that, while things were trending within that timeframe, he wasn't able to sustain it within the season. How different would our program look right now if 13-14, 14-15, and 15-16 had been able to be sustained? We would have gotten better seeds which may have led to one or more Sweet 16s, which may have led to better recruits, and then you're off an running. In my mind, Fran had his opportunity and wasn't able to grab hold of it. That's why the extension made absolutely no sense on any level.
But for Jon to act as if we're stuck where we are because that's how things have gone for the last 25+ years is such defeatist, little-man syndrome. We can do better....plenty of other programs have shown that.
They also had more than their share of players who enjoyed or are enjoying long NBA careers. Devin Harris, Alando Tucker, Jon Leuer, Dekker, Kaminsky, probably a couple I'm forgetting off the top of my head.If you look at what got Wisconsin to the top of the basketball world...it was a lot of luck, a lot of coaching, and a lot of player development. That's what it would take for Iowa.
They also had more than their share of players who enjoyed or are enjoying long NBA careers. Devin Harris, Alando Tucker, Jon Leuer, Dekker, Kaminsky, probably a couple I'm forgetting off the top of my head.
Where they lucked out on the coaching end is by getting someone who was battle tested and ready, with no learning on the job. Bo Ryan was not only a legend at UW Platteville, he resisted all temptations and stayed there sixteen years, winning multiple championships. He coached tenacious defense and preached shot selection and ball security. His program at Wisconsin was the model for what Barta envisioned when he hired Todd Lickliter. But Ryan started winning immediately at Wisconsin. Lickliter crashed so badly in season three that Barta had no choice but to dismiss him. Actually, ten thousand empty seats in Carver for big ten games played a role in dismissing him, too.
Maybe it is the optimist in me, but I think that Iowa COULD jump right back into the top 4 of the B1G standings. Here me out.
Jordan while lacking defensive prowess, is gonna once again have 5+ APG, and score 12+PPG.
Moss take another step forward and just becomes more consistent, that is what he lacked last year.
Joe steps right in and is a 10+ PPG guy, and can defend on the perimeter and rebounds well for a wing
Cook just gonna be Cook
Garza just keeps improving like he did all of last year. Will easily be a 10+ PPG scorer and 8 RPG guy.
Ride these guys. These are the most talented guys right now, stop trying to give everyone 15
MPG. Sure the other guys can play spot minutes, but let these guys all get about 30 MPG with Garza maybe 25 depending on his stamina, etc.
Offensively the talent is there, we have 5 legit guys that can all average 10+ PPG and any one of Them get 20 points in a night. The thing that would make them a top 4 B1G team is gonna be defense though. If they can just be an average defensive team, they could be good.
Will all this happen? Boy I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Yet I’m not gonna be surprise to see a big time turn around because frankly last year was a aberration IMO. That team was/should have been better than they were.
You spent 7.5 paragraphs talking about offense, then had a sort of throw away sentence regarding defense.
Offense is not, has not, and will not be an issue. We were third in the B1G in PPG last year and Top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency. And that offensive greatness got us FOUR B1G wins last year....FOUR.
But we were the WORST defensive team in the B1G since 1995. That's 23 years. It takes something special (or not-so-special, in this case) to be the worst in something in 23 years. You don't just go from "worst defensive team in 23 years" to "average" in the span of a season....it just ain't happening.
At best, we can go from "worst defensive team in 23 years" to "bad", and that MIGHT get us to .500 in the B1G....maybe.
Ok, I will bread down the defense more.
Last year I think our defensive issues were 3 fold.
1) PG, Jordan is never going to be a plus defender
2) Wing position, we had Wagner, Baer and Nunge playing the 3 way too often. None of them were able to defend the opposing wings
3) PF, our guys just didn't play D. I think our ball screen defense from out PF (Cook and Pemsl specifically) were the worst part of our defense. Lots of times the PG got a free run at the rim, because Cook and Pemsl didn't even make a half hearted attempt to stop the ball, leaving Jordan being hit by a screen, and nobody to stop the ball handler from getting right to the rim.
These 3 things should improve. Joe is a Wing, Dailey is a wing, Baer can be serviceable at the wing, so #2 should be solved. Cook and Pemsl are capable of playing D, they just didn't, I think we can fix #3 easily. #1 isn't going to change, but if our other players hedge and help better on screens, that should help overall.
While I did say right upfront on my other post that you ignored was the fact that I am NOT SAYING Iowa will be to 4 in the B1G. What I am saying is obviously the offense isn't an issue and listed that out, but out defense improving to just being average isn't that hard to do really. We can easily improve on 2 our our 3 glaring defensive issues, so I am just assuming that the coaches aren't dumb, they can see what others are seeing and hopefully address it.
Brust was from out of state but point stil taken. That’s why I said Iowa needs to maintain a level of success (consistent tournaments) and start landing some quality out of state guys, then when the in state recruiting is strong (like it is right now) or like it was for UW with Dekker and Koenig, you make your noise. That’s how you can have success at a school like Iowa.I agree but they lucked out bigtime with Kaminsky. frank Kaminsky was a 3 star with terrible offers who wasn't a good player his first 2 years at Wisconsin and wound up the player of the year his senior season. The dude just found something and by his junior year he was a stud. It also helped that they had Dekker Koenig and brust... all Wisconsin natives who grew up badger fans.
Imagine if ryan Kriener was the national player of the year next year. That's basically what Frank Kaminsky pulled off at Wisconsin.
I don't think the coaches are dumb either. These same guys coached previous Iowa teams to National Top 30 defensive efficiency.
However, those teams had something this team doesn't:
1. Good/Great interior defense with Woody clogging up the lane. I like Garza, but he ain't a lane clogger.
2. Good backcourt defense from MG and Sapp. MG had his issues offensively, but he was a really good on-ball defender, as was Sapp.
3. Decent quickness to jump passing lanes and get steals. In the 4 years from the 13-14 season thru the 16-17 season, we were in the top half of the B1G every year in steals.
It wasn't even like we were bad on defense last year....we were historically awful. Like once-in-a-generation awful. We didn't add anyone to our roster that will help improve that from a defensive standpoint and the guys we have aren't getting quicker or tougher in the course of one year....I just don't see it.
Brust was from Illinois. Did you confuse him with Josh Gasser, who was from Wisconsin? (Port Washington). Wisconsin had the foresight to redshirt Kaminsky and it paid off with back to back final fours. Ethan Happ redshirted and he may challenge for conference player of the year honors. They redshirted Uthoff and that ended up giving Jarrod an NBA shot.I agree but they lucked out bigtime with Kaminsky. frank Kaminsky was a 3 star with terrible offers who wasn't a good player his first 2 years at Wisconsin and wound up the player of the year his senior season. The dude just found something and by his junior year he was a stud. It also helped that they had Dekker Koenig and brust... all Wisconsin natives who grew up badger fans.
Imagine if ryan Kriener was the national player of the year next year. That's basically what Frank Kaminsky pulled off at Wisconsin.