Shouldn't We make the tournament?

tksirius said:
What if we barely get in the NCAA tourney and lose in the first round?

What if we win the NIT championship?
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NCAA first round losses happen. Making the dance is what I want to see this year, period. I didn't say anything about making a deep run. Getting in would be a good enough improvement for me.

NIT championship.. I may be persuaded to be patient another year. 2nd round NIT loss, not so much.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
I concur. I'm not going to lower the bar for my expectations this year just because last year was so awful.

Of course, there will be those who will defend the coach because of all the good recruits coming in, etc. It was the same when Alford and Lick were our coach. Yes, I actually remember people saying it'd be crazy to fire Lick because Cody Larson was going to be our savior.

In the end, it's results that count, not potential. A coach is either getting it done or is not. NIT this year would be 3 straight misses.. In years 7-9. 3 trips in 9 years, one of them basically a play-in game loss. That's not so hot.
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If Fran can't win with the players he has returning or land some of the highly ranked Iowa recruits in the next few years, I doubt he will ever bring Iowa up into a top notch program. That really doesn't mean he isn't a good coach since the odds were stacked against him to start with. It does mean that he might be a good coach, but he isn't a great coach as far as wins and losses.
 
Land of Ten just had an article with an interesting fact in it. In 4 of Fran's 8 seasons, his team has finished last in the BIG conference in PPG allowed. If anyone wonders why we don't get to the NCAA tournament very often....look no further.
 
lightning1 said:
Land of Ten just had an article with an interesting fact in it. In 4 of Fran's 8 seasons, his team has finished last in the BIG conference in PPG allowed. If anyone wonders why we don't get to the NCAA tournament very often....look no further.
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We should give him a few more years to turn it around. o_O
 
lightning1 said:
Land of Ten just had an article with an interesting fact in it. In 4 of Fran's 8 seasons, his team has finished last in the BIG conference in PPG allowed. If anyone wonders why we don't get to the NCAA tournament very often....look no further.
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He probably also finishes first in possessions per game, or close to it, every year. I'm guessing, so could be wrong. When you run uptempo like Fran does, points per game on defense will make a great coach look good, a good coach look average, an average coach look bad, and a bad coach look terrible. It has the opposite affect on offense.
 
lightning1 said:
Land of Ten just had an article with an interesting fact in it. In 4 of Fran's 8 seasons, his team has finished last in the BIG conference in PPG allowed. If anyone wonders why we don't get to the NCAA tournament very often....look no further.
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PPG allowed is a meaningless stat. What were the defensive points per possession numbers during that same time frame? The way Fran wants to play on offense, you are going to give your opponents a lot of possessions. You are not going to get stops on every possession. I don’t care if Iowa is giving up 75, if they are scoring 80.
 
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trj said:
PPG allowed is a meaningless stat. What were the defensive points per possession numbers during that same time frame? The way Fran wants to play on offense, you are going to give your opponents a lot of possessions. You are not going to get stops on every possession. I don’t care if Iowa is giving up 75, if they scoring 80.
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Really? Care to wager on whether those 4 seasons coincide with Fran's worst seasons from a Win/Loss standpoint? I'll wager on 2010-11, 2011-12, 2016-17 and 2017-18. You can have the other 4 seasons. How much do you want to bet?
2010-11. 2nd to last (record = 11-20)
2011-12. Last (18-17)
2016-17. Last (19-15)
2017-18. Last (14-19)
Those are Fran's worst seasons by record. Not a coincidence. You keep telling yourself PPG allowed is a worthless stat. I hope it makes you sleep better at night.
 
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Unless our defense drastically improves we have no shot at the NCAA tournament, and our defense was terrible in so many ways that I have very little optimism for it improving much. We had poor defensive game plans. Our players seem to have low basketball IQ's when it comes to defense. And they weren't giving a ton of effort to make up for some of those other deficiencies.
 
lightning1 said:
Really? Care to wager on whether those 4 seasons coincide with Fran's worst seasons from a Win/Loss standpoint? I'll wager on 2010-11, 2011-12, 2016-17 and 2017-18. You can have the other 4 seasons. How much do you want to bet?
2010-11. 2nd to last (record = 11-20)
2011-12. Last (18-17)
2016-17. Last (19-15)
2017-18. Last (14-19)
Those are Fran's worst seasons by record. Not a coincidence. You keep telling yourself PPG allowed is a worthless stat. I hope it makes you sleep better at night.
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I'm no Fran defender, but PPG or PPG allowed are both kind of worthless if you ask me. If you are playing at a fast pace it does actually mean little really. Just because Lick's team took the air out of the game, didn't mean they were a good defensive team, it just meant they played boring as shit BB.

'10-'11 Iowa was 56 in Adjusted D
'11-'12 Iowa was 205 in Adjusted D
'16-'17 Iowa was 123 in Adjusted D
'17-'18 Iowa was 242 in adjusted D

Outside of the '10-11 year which actually was not a terrible defense, the other years were NOT good.

It still kind of blows my mind that many on here don't understand more advanced statistics. Adjusted D and O mean a lot more than PPG or PPG allowed. If a coach decides to play at a faster pace, or course more PPG are going to be allowed as the opponents get more possessions. So that mean nothing, if you are good at stopping teams from scoring, that is what matters, not what overall points they ended up getting to.
 
lightning1 said:
Really? Care to wager on whether those 4 seasons coincide with Fran's worst seasons from a Win/Loss standpoint? I'll wager on 2010-11, 2011-12, 2016-17 and 2017-18. You can have the other 4 seasons. How much do you want to bet?
2010-11. 2nd to last (record = 11-20)
2011-12. Last (18-17)
2016-17. Last (19-15)
2017-18. Last (14-19)
Those are Fran's worst seasons by record. Not a coincidence. You keep telling yourself PPG allowed is a worthless stat. I hope it makes you sleep better at night.
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I sleep well, regardless. I care about how many points they give up per possession. The way Fran wants to play the opponent will have a lot of possessions, therefore a lot of points. You can jerk yourself off with the PPG allowed stat all you want, whatever works for you. It is meaningless to me. Fran's 3 best season they were in the top 35 in defensive points per possessions and the 4th, they were 77th.
 
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deanvogs said:
I'm no Fran defender, but PPG or PPG allowed are both kind of worthless if you ask me. If you are playing at a fast pace it does actually mean little really. Just because Lick's team took the air out of the game, didn't mean they were a good defensive team, it just meant they played boring as shit BB.

'10-'11 Iowa was 56 in Adjusted D
'11-'12 Iowa was 205 in Adjusted D
'16-'17 Iowa was 123 in Adjusted D
'17-'18 Iowa was 242 in adjusted D

Outside of the '10-11 year which actually was not a terrible defense, the other years were NOT good.

It still kind of blows my mind that many on here don't understand more advanced statistics. Adjusted D and O mean a lot more than PPG or PPG allowed. If a coach decides to play at a faster pace, or course more PPG are going to be allowed as the opponents get more possessions. So that mean nothing, if you are good at stopping teams from scoring, that is what matters, not what overall points they ended up getting to.
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I am not even an analytics guy and I get this.
 
Even if your playing at a fast tempo you can't give up as many pts as Iowa was last yr... Can we agree on that? To me it wasn't just the volume of points we gave up but how easily and wide open of looks they got. I think we could do a better job of challenging shots and forcing turnovers to help with this. I felt Iowa rebounded decently last yr but could improve at that as well. All those things being improved upon would be steps the right direction
 
deanvogs said:
I'm no Fran defender, but PPG or PPG allowed are both kind of worthless if you ask me. If you are playing at a fast pace it does actually mean little really. Just because Lick's team took the air out of the game, didn't mean they were a good defensive team, it just meant they played boring as shit BB.

'10-'11 Iowa was 56 in Adjusted D
'11-'12 Iowa was 205 in Adjusted D
'16-'17 Iowa was 123 in Adjusted D
'17-'18 Iowa was 242 in adjusted D

Outside of the '10-11 year which actually was not a terrible defense, the other years were NOT good.

It still kind of blows my mind that many on here don't understand more advanced statistics. Adjusted D and O mean a lot more than PPG or PPG allowed. If a coach decides to play at a faster pace, or course more PPG are going to be allowed as the opponents get more possessions. So that mean nothing, if you are good at stopping teams from scoring, that is what matters, not what overall points they ended up getting to.
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I'm not sure how this evidence doesn't speak for itself.
2010-11. 2nd to last (record = 11-20)
2011-12. Last (18-17)
2016-17. Last (19-15)
2017-18. Last (14-19)
I could go into why PPG allowed matters, especially in conjunction with Fran's offense. And why he'll never field a good defensive team BECAUSE of his offense....but I'm not going to.
"taking the air out of the ball" actually does allow you to play better defense. While running your tail off on the offensive end will naturally impede the amount of effort you can give on the defensive end.
 
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RobHowe said:
The buyout after next season is $9M. Why do you people do this to yourselves? :confused:
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Yeah I gotcha. But there was a discussion so I felt inclined to offer my thoughts. :)

I fully realize it's all moot point (thanks Barta) and there's exactly zero I can do about it, but that's just where I'll be as a fan if Iowa misses the dance yet again next season. So all I can do is hope Iowa shows major improvement this year and beyond. Otherwise it's gonna be some long and dark winters in our future thanks to that contract.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Even if your playing at a fast tempo you can't give up as many pts as Iowa was last yr... Can we agree on that? To me it wasn't just the volume of points we gave up but how easily and wide open of looks they got. I think we could do a better job of challenging shots and forcing turnovers to help with this. I felt Iowa rebounded decently last yr but could improve at that as well. All those things being improved upon would be steps the right direction
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Iowa allowed their opponents to shoot 37% from 3. That number has to come down at least 3 or 4 percentage points. Being better at switches and defensive rotation will help some of that. The backcourt is so limited on the defensive end because there is no one that is even a decent on-the-ball defender.
 
Adam said:
If Fran can't make the tournament with this group of guys then 9 million should be considered the price of admittance. I don't care what the buyout is. All the big buyout means is the dummy who gave it should also be opening a pink slip.
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