Seven, Eight Wins Next Season

J

jameskalina

Well-Known Member
After seeing the spring scrimmage and reading about and watching the other Big Ten teams this past month, I'm predicting Iowa will win 7 or 8 games in the upcoming regular season.

I think there's not a team on Iowa's schedule the Hawks can't beat. But development, sustainablity and lack of injuries will be keys as to how the season goes. That said, best case scenario is 10 wins and worst case scenario is 5 wins.

Until the Hawks prove me wrong I maintain Iowa will lose a game in September (as they usually do) and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). I think Iowa State is the biggest threat to pull off the September upset.

Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home.

Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games.

There are two back to back road games in November that will give Iowa tough competition that can go either way. I think the Hawks will lose to either Purdue or Nebraska, or possibly both.

Hence the 7 or 8 win prediction.

I may tweak this prediction in late August, depending how things go over the summer with Iowa and its opponents.
 
I don't disagree that the number to go off of is probably 8 wins, but how do you figure that Iowa State is the biggest threat for anything? When they step on the field in September it will be a full five years since they scored a TD against either the first or second team defense of Iowa. Throw in the fact that they don't have a QB and they lose Alexander Robinson, there is very little about them that scares me.
 
theboat said:
I don't disagree that the number to go off of is probably 8 wins, but how do you figure that Iowa State is the biggest threat for anything? When they step on the field in September it will be a full five years since they scored a TD against either the first or second team defense of Iowa. Throw in the fact that they don't have a QB and they lose Alexander Robinson, there is very little about them that scares me.
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Iowa rarely plays well in Ames. Also, this is Iowa State's bowl game and Rhodes will have his team jacked sky high for the game.
 
jameskalina said:
Iowa rarely plays well in Ames. Also, this is Iowa State's bowl game and Rhodes will have his team jacked sky high for the game.
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I don't get this anymore. Rhoads doesn't put anywhere near the level of emphasis on the game as Mac did. It's not a bowl game to them anymore, it's just another opponent that they need to beat.

But you're right, we don't play well in Ames (typically). Which is why they are the best candidate to pull a September upset. Pitt in Kinnick worries me less than an unknown ISU in Ames.
 
If this (Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home). is true.

Then this (and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games). cannot also be assumed.
 
vosov said:
If this (Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home). is true.

Then this (and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games). cannot also be assumed.
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Ha. I was gonna post something like this.

If Northwestern is given the benefit of the doubt due to recent history until we beat them, then Iowa should be given the benefit of the doubt against PSU until they are beaten by them
 
I would agree...

jameskalina said:
After seeing the spring scrimmage and reading about and watching the other Big Ten teams this past month, I'm predicting Iowa will win 7 or 8 games in the upcoming regular season.

I think there's not a team on Iowa's schedule the Hawks can't beat. But development, sustainablity and lack of injuries will be keys as to how the season goes. That said, best case scenario is 10 wins and worst case scenario is 5 wins.

Until the Hawks prove me wrong I maintain Iowa will lose a game in September (as they usually do) and also lose to Northwestern (as they usually do). I think Iowa State is the biggest threat to pull off the September upset.

Iowa's had a nice run against Penn State. But I think it's their turn to beat the Hawks in Happy Valley. It should be a close game, but Penn State finds a way to win that one at home.

Iowa should win all but one (Northwestern) of their home games.

There are two back to back road games in November that will give Iowa tough competition that can go either way. I think the Hawks will lose to either Purdue or Nebraska, or possibly both.

Hence the 7 or 8 win prediction.

I may tweak this prediction in late August, depending how things go over the summer with Iowa and its opponents.
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7-8 wins is kind of the baseline for Iowa football going into a season, which is a pretty good place to be. Before people go off on having lowered expectations, this doesn't mean that we all are happy and giddy with 7-8 wins every season. It just means that if we don't have key injuries and get a few breaks, then 9-10 wins (or more) are a possibility.
From a physical standpoint, Iowa can stand up to any team on the schedule. If you are starting from that point, then your team has a chance to be good.

If the offensive line stays healthy, I think the offense has a chance to be well above average, bordering on very good. On defense Iowa has recruited athletes, and the overall athleticism of the defense is good. It will take some time for some of the new guys who haven't played a ton (Davis, Lebron Daniel, Kirksey/Hitchens, Tanner Miller, B.J. Lowery, etc.) to play at a high level, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that unit playing very well the last half of the season.

As to the schedule, there is no team on the September schedule as good as Arizona. I wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa 4-0 in non-conference. Rhoads has the ISU program headed in the right direction, but new QB and still building in the trenches, so I like Iowa's chances. Pitt has had a crazy off-season, has lost some players and will be in its first road test with a new coach. I like Iowa's chances.

Every Big 10 game will be a dogfight with the possible exceptions of Indiana and Minnesota. I think Kill and Indiana's coach are both huge upgrades over Brewster and Lynch, but it will take time for them to get their programs built up. Purdue played a ton of young guys last year, Michigan has a coach who now has the backing of the fans/alumni/administration, MSU is good, Northwestern is good, Penn State has some holes but is good, Nebraska will be very good.
 
Churlish79 said:
Ha. I was gonna post something like this.

If Northwestern is given the benefit of the doubt due to recent history until we beat them, then Iowa should be given the benefit of the doubt against PSU until they are beaten by them
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Exactly.

Iowa has had PSU's number the last few years but it is PSU's turn to win, Northwestern has had Iowa's number the last few years but Iowa has no chance to win. That makes sense.
 
jameskalina said:
After seeing the spring scrimmage and reading about and watching the other Big Ten teams this past month, I'm predicting Iowa will win 7 or 8 games in the upcoming regular season.


I may tweak this prediction in late August, depending how things go over the summer with Iowa and its opponents.
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After seeing the highlights of the spring practice online, I am predicting 12 regular season wins.

I may tweak this prediction at the conclusion of each regular season game after seeing the numbers following "IOWA" and "OPPONENT" on the scoreboard.
 
In all seriousness, I believe there are two keys to the season. Vandy playing at a high level and not turning the ball over and someone emerging on the DL to compliment the three seniors. I think Davis is the guy. If the DL proves they can be effective stopping the run...then this season's expectation for wins goes to 10 pretty quickly.

The back seven defensively are going to be very solid...and have more speed than we are accustomed to. It should be fun to watch as I think we can generate alot of turnovers.

Vandy and the DL...if they surprise to the upside...we have a shot at a B10 Championship game appearance.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
When does John predict 12-0? Is that in the Spring or does he wait until Fall?
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If there was ever a time for someone in Jon's position (knowledge/experience, livelihood, relationship to players/coachs etc) to make a 12 -0 prediction, 2010 could very well have been it.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
When does John predict 12-0? Is that in the Spring or does he wait until Fall?
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LOL. That's the first time I picked an undefeated season. Whereas writers from papers like the LA Times have picked Iowa as their national title game team in the past...and others picked Iowa in the national title game last year (Skip Bayless, I believe, was one).

But by all means, string me up ;)
 
Mark my words we will win at least 10 games next year. We will be in every game and the magic of 09 will return.
 
JonDMiller said:
LOL. That's the first time I picked an undefeated season. Whereas writers from papers like the LA Times have picked Iowa as their national title game team in the past...and others picked Iowa in the national title game last year (Skip Bayless, I believe, was one).

But by all means, string me up ;)
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Skip Bayless picks like ten teams to win in everything. He'll say, I think Iowa has the easiest path, but Alabama is the most talented team but Oklahoma has the most potential or something like that. He does it constantly. The Lakers should win but I think the Spurs will pull the upset, it's how he can say he's never wrong.

Ivan Maisel, who is by far ESPN's best college football writer, had Iowa playing Alabama for the title, so Jon's pick was far from crazy.
 
My personal base line has always been 9 wins. Nine wins is the cut off (in my mind) to the upper echelon. This team has top 15 talent and resources, so 9 is reasonable, 8 is disappointing, and 7 is just sad. That’s not to say I don’t get “it”, things happen and I’m not one to call for heads, but this team is deep and talented enuff that 9 should be the automatic baseline in my opinion.

On the other end 10 is doable, anything past that takes plenty of breaks and good fortune……

Chad
 
The small stuff points to a very good year. I agree 9 is a good base (this year). I like that we start out easy and by the time the harder ones roll around the younger guys should be settled in a bit.
 
Our success will be determined by the good health of Coach Parker. I hope for 9 win with a 10th win in a bowl game. I would love to see Iowa beat an SEC team in a bowl game. Lets keep Coach Parker off a moped until after new years.
 
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