Who do they lose to? Arizona, Ohio State, Wisconsin are off the schedule. Last years team beat PSU UM and MSU (arguably our two hardest games this year). We beat MN 9 out of 10 times.
They probably lose to Northwestern and Nebraska.
Revised 2011 predictions
- Thread starter homerHAWKeye777
- Start date
Who do they lose to? Arizona, Ohio State, Wisconsin are off the schedule. Last years team beat PSU UM and MSU (arguably our two hardest games this year). We beat MN 9 out of 10 times.
They probably lose to Northwestern and Nebraska.
theboat
Well-Known Member
You might be the dumbest person I have ever seen post here. So I hope you are just trying to get a rise out of people or you are actually only 12 years old.
Others are whacked if they think beating NW and Indiana is a big deal, but you take Michigan by 52 points in Kinnick? Seriously, please tell my you are trolling.
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STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
No "revision" here, just revisiting.
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/35370-revised-record-predictions.html#post555451
About the only thing I might waver on going forward is to lean a bit toward the 6-6 end rather than the 7-5 end. I've always considered the Purdue game to be "50/50" but leaned toward a W because thought they'd be more beat up than Iowa when the two played. They look to have compensated for their injuries and poor QB play and it's not even an argument that their 4-3 is higher quality than Iowa's 5-2. Still, I'll leave it as a toss-up and hope Hawks can win in a shoot-out to get to 7-5.
All things equal (i.e. don't assume injuries), while there's no way Iowa is going to lose by 40 to anyone, there's also no way they are going to beat either Michigan team or Nebby. Those teams actually have competent defenses to prevent Iowa getting the 30 - 33+ that will be required for them to win all of those games.
Best case = 7-5, worst case = 5-7 -- which is exactly what I predicted preseason.
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/35370-revised-record-predictions.html#post555451
About the only thing I might waver on going forward is to lean a bit toward the 6-6 end rather than the 7-5 end. I've always considered the Purdue game to be "50/50" but leaned toward a W because thought they'd be more beat up than Iowa when the two played. They look to have compensated for their injuries and poor QB play and it's not even an argument that their 4-3 is higher quality than Iowa's 5-2. Still, I'll leave it as a toss-up and hope Hawks can win in a shoot-out to get to 7-5.
All things equal (i.e. don't assume injuries), while there's no way Iowa is going to lose by 40 to anyone, there's also no way they are going to beat either Michigan team or Nebby. Those teams actually have competent defenses to prevent Iowa getting the 30 - 33+ that will be required for them to win all of those games.
Best case = 7-5, worst case = 5-7 -- which is exactly what I predicted preseason.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
Ex-squeeze me ... how in the world do you make THAT conclusion?
What ... they played PSU closer than we did? What ... you're gonna chalk the Illinois game as a high-quality win for them? Good lord ... Iowa lost to a heated in-state rival EARLY in the season ... and also lost to a PSU squad that featured a great D.
Why do you suppose that Purdue fared better agaisnt PSU than we did? I can tell ya ... they were more successful using a ball control O than we were. As a result, they were able to keep their D a bit more fresh ... and that allowed them to make more stops when they needed them. Furthermore, PSU was without Moye, their best WR, against Purdue ... I suppose that doesn't figure into the equation AT ALL?
Right now ... at this juncture ... I'd say that Purdue and Iowa are pretty even. The main reason why they're even is that I'd say that Purdue has enjoyed better DL play up until this point. However, quite frankly, I don't know what to expect from the Iowa D if they can actually stay healthy and continue to make progress development-wise.
Anyhow, before you get ahead of yourself ... Purdue looked BAD against Notre Dame ... and they also have had a schedule where they've faced off against Middle Tennessee State, Rice, Southeast Missouri State, and Minnesota. In Big 10 play ... I'd actually argue that they've had really SIMILAR schedules. And, with regard to OOC play ... Iowa played a better FCS squad AND played against TWO BCS programs. Without a doubt, schedule-wise ... I'd give Iowa the nod.
Despite giving Iowa the nod schedule-wise ... I'd say that they're even because of personnel (DL-comparisons) ... as I mentioned before. However, as I've also suggested ... that could possibly change as the season continues to unfold.
Lastly, another thing to remark upon is that Iowa will be entering the Purdue game with a more favorable schedule than Purdue. Purdue has to face 2 road games against the likes of Wisky and Michigan before facing a salty tOSU D at home. And only after those do they face us. In contrast, Iowa has a road game against Minny ... and then gets 2 home games against the Michigan schools. It's not inconceivable that Iowa could be entering the Purdue game with more momentum than the Boilermakers.
STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
Purdue's opponents' cum. record = 24-26; Iowa's = 22-28.
Sagarin currently ranks Iowa's s.o.s. at 118th to Purdue's 105th.
Don't let your hatred for Illannoy cloud the fact that it was a solid win, over a ranked (albeit, overrated) opponent. Between the 2 teams, it is the only win over an FBS opponent with a winning record.
You want to discount that Iowa lost to ISU because it was a "heated in-state rival EARLY in the season" but the fact still remains, they lost to a 2-5 team on the road. Olive pointed out the Purdue lost to Rice. Guess what, that was a loss, EARLY in the season (when Purdue was still breaking in their afterthought of a QB) to a 2-5 team on the road.
You also presume I put a lot of stock in Purdue playing PSU better than Iowa. Truth is, it had little bearing on my claim -- to me it was both teams losing on the road. However, since you vehemently rationalized why Iowa played so poorly / Purdue played better against them, it actually is worth taking into consideration. PSU was banged up when Iowa played them, too. Iowa had 2 weeks to prepare and failed to execute or adjust. At least Purdue scored 5 points more than what that great D had allowed on average, Iowa scored 10 points less than what that same great D (who had just lost their key LB and CB) allowed, on average
You guys really take issue with the idea that if I'm wavering, it is on the Purdue game because I think there is evidence to support Purdue being the better team. How about this, I'll concede that saying "it's not even an argument" was too definitive. You made your argument. You believe your evidence and I believe mine. We simply disagree. Geez!
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
I would put Iowa and Purdue's defense's about equal. It is difficult to decide between these two because neither is a good defense right now. Purdue gets the edge because the game is in Lafayette. And does the Iowa defense that played against NW show up or is it the one that played against Indiana?
Consider this; Iowa has yet to win a road game. They give up a lot of points they shouldn't. NW's offense is the only decent offense that Iowa has slowed down this year. Illinois may be down because of their loss to tOSU but they are still a good team with a decent defense. So Purdue at least has a solid performance against a good team. I hate to say it, but I think Iowa loses in Lafayette.
You can make the case that Penn State has the best defense in the B10. Let alone their division. Against Iowa, Iowa's offense did nothing. Iowa's defense only gave up 13 points to PSU, but they made up for it against just about every other team they have faced this year. Using the transference property with NW is questionable. NW will score against just about every team they face. Their offense isn't the problem. It's their defense.
I would rate Nebraska's defense ahead of Iowa, Purdue. None of them are good defenses its just a opinion based on watching all three play.
Consider this; Iowa has yet to win a road game. They give up a lot of points they shouldn't. NW's offense is the only decent offense that Iowa has slowed down this year. Illinois may be down because of their loss to tOSU but they are still a good team with a decent defense. So Purdue at least has a solid performance against a good team. I hate to say it, but I think Iowa loses in Lafayette.
You can make the case that Penn State has the best defense in the B10. Let alone their division. Against Iowa, Iowa's offense did nothing. Iowa's defense only gave up 13 points to PSU, but they made up for it against just about every other team they have faced this year. Using the transference property with NW is questionable. NW will score against just about every team they face. Their offense isn't the problem. It's their defense.
I would rate Nebraska's defense ahead of Iowa, Purdue. None of them are good defenses its just a opinion based on watching all three play.
That's as far as I need to go. At first I thought Purdue was just bad. But they have been able to put together some decent performances as of late, which makes their home field advantage meaningful.
Hopefully, their gauntlet schedule before us just knocks the fight out of them.
homerHAWKeye777
Well-Known Member
I think that you're reading my post as being more vehement than it really was.
First off ... I'm anticipating a victory by the Boilermakers against Iowa as well.
However, where I take issue is that Iowa's 5-2 is "weaker" than Purdue's 4-3.
I simply don't believe that you can discount the quality of play being put up by particular teams. Specifically, Northwestern may be 0-4 in the Big 10 ... however, Northwestern was IN each and every one of the games that they lost ... at least for substantial stretches of those games.
While Illinois may have a better record than Northwestern ... I'm not convinced that they're really that much better of a team than the Wildcats.
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
in for the michigan bet
