Rest of the season projections and thoughts

[ssckelley]

Nice job Fry on the analysis, I'm going to use this to project the rest of the season.

Wins
Iowa has won 80.5% of it's home games since 2017 and they have 18 home games which means they finish 15-3 (83%, being optimistic). So far they have only lost 1 home game so this means they lose 2 more, that gives them a 4-2 record the rest of the way with those loses likely to Purdue and MSU.

Losses
Iowa has won 35.4% of it's road games, they had 12 road games and so far have only won 2 games. Winning 35% of 12 games means they finish 4-8 (33% which balances the win %) which gives them a 2-4 record the rest of the way. Those wins will likely come from PSU, Nebraska, or Maryland (win 2) with OSU, Michigan, and Illinois as likely losses on the road.

Iowa is 14-10 (58.3%) at neutral sites since 2017 and they already have a win against Utah State. So that probably means they go 1-1 in the BTT and 1-1 in the big dance (60%, being optimistic again).

So this analysis has Iowa finishing the season 8-8 with an overall record of 22-13. Not bad!

 

[InGoodCo]

There is a lot of sense being made in this thread - I love when we can all look at things rationally.

 

[Fryowa]

hmmm... I think Iowa matches up really well with Purdue - despite their size. They also played them well on the road without Keegan. I feel better about Iowa winning against Purdue then at Penn State or at Nebraska... but again, that's just the way I see the sport in general

Size has been a common theme of giving the Hawks trouble this year. Edey and Williams are just too much to handle for us and they shut down the middle. That leaves us one-dimensional even if we aren't an "inside team" and then defending us becomes much easier. Same thing with Cockburn at Illinois. We just don't seem to have an answer for teams that put those kinds of guys on the floor.

 

[ssckelley]

It's also worth noting that since 2017 Iowa has won 44% of the games against ranked opponents and they are currently 0-3 this season (which has brought that % down). They have 4 games remaining against ranked opponents, 2 home and 2 on the road. They are over due to win at least 1 of them!

 

[NorthKCHawk]

There is a lot of sense being made in this thread - I love when we can all look at things rationally.

Right??? Who knew we were capable of presenting ourselves as informed gentlemen. Did the internet break when I wasn't looking?

 

[thedukeofearl]

Oh, and while I very much appreciate your analysis Fry, it is perfectly acceptable in the better circles to simply not count the Lickliter years- black holes absorb all matter, and if any era is equivalent to a black hole in IA BB, that would be the era......

 

[dahlhawk]

One of the best

Good stuff Fry - I appreciate you compounding on my opinion on road games. You can point out Iowa is middle of the pack on the road, but the more astonishing thing I see is programs like MSU and WI - who have had huge successes, final 4's and routinely elite play the last decade or 2 - and those teams are just barely .500 on the road.

I personally count every road game Iowa plays as an L - and every road game they win is just icing on the resume. I never assume against, literally any team that "Iowa should win this one" just because I've watch CBB for decades - Iowa has never really been a program that's won more than 3 of 10 on the road and frankly, there aren't that many programs that are a whole hell of a lot better on the road. 3 of 10 vs 5 of 10 - that's the difference between elite and middle of the pack.

Road wins in the Big Ten have always been like seeing a unicorn, even in legendary coach Lute Olson's day. Two road games at the end of the season to win the conference just needed a split, nope. Led to Bain-gate, Lute's famous melt-down where he called out Bain and company for "stealing a game" from his kids. All a team can do is keep it close and try to sneak out a win.

 

[teachercoach]

The Big10 is just a brutally competitive conference.

Ohio St was down 4, 30 sec left @ Neb, got to OT and won.
NW won at Mich St by 2, lost on final possession tonight @ Mich.
Ill has lost to Purdue at home in 2OT and beat MichSt at home by 1
Iowa needed 3ptr @ Minn in last minute in 1 possession game.
Wis wins by 1 @ MLand
Rutgers beats Purdue and Iowa by 2 at home, lost at Minn by 3.

We are not 1/2 way thru conference schedule.

Iowa could go 9-3 or 3-9 and neither would really surprise.....

 

[Northside Hawk]

True

It sucks that we couldnt have played Michigan earlier they were not very good awhile back but they are starting to hit there stride now and by the end of the year there are going to be a very dangerous team.

but we may have caught Maryland at a good time the first time around and we got a gift at Minnesota a couple weeks ago catching them short handed.

 

[1980HAWKFAN]

We certainly have a shot against Purdue tonight, but it's going to take contributions from everyone who takes the floor tonight. We can't have a goose egg from C Mac, Ulis, and Perkins and expect to beat Purdue. If Rebraca can stay out of foul trouble, Murray twins are scoring, and we get points from Jbo, Joe T and bench we have a chance. Hawks 71 Purdue 68. No win or loss by any team in this conference should be a shock this season.

 

[BigD]

Size has been a common theme of giving the Hawks trouble this year. Edey and Williams are just too much to handle for us and they shut down the middle. That leaves us one-dimensional even if we aren't an "inside team" and then defending us becomes much easier. Same thing with Cockburn at Illinois. We just don't seem to have an answer for teams that put those kinds of guys on the floor.

I am afraid you are likely right. It will take an Oregon type of effort if it is going to happen. Stranger things have happened. Would I put any level of significant money on a win? No. However we are playing our best ball right now especially on defense. Will have to put quick them, out steal them, out assist them…………oh yeah……… out score them.
Was really surprised how close we came at Mackey. For that reason I am not counting this as an automatic loss.

Now if the refs come in and favor Purdue well then that is an automatic loss. If we get some home cooking (come to the game angry and mad ready to rip the officials at any and all calls against us) then we have a fifty/fifty chance.

 

[InGoodCo]

I am afraid you are likely right. It will take an Oregon type of effort if it is going to happen. Stranger things have happened. Would I put any level of significant money on a win? No. However we are playing our best ball right now especially on defense. Will have to put quick them, out steal them, out assist them…………oh yeah……… out score them.
Was really surprised how close we came at Mackey. For that reason I am not counting this as an automatic loss.

Now if the refs come in and favor Purdue well then that is an automatic loss. If we get some home cooking (come to the game angry and mad ready to rip the officials at any and all calls against us) then we have a fifty/fifty chance.

Can't imagine Iowa gets 29 fouls called on them like at Mackey - the difference in FT that game was like 37-22 in favor or Purdue..... making it even more shocking that Iowa stuck with them without Keegan.

 

[Fryowa]

Can't imagine Iowa gets 29 fouls called on them like at Mackey - the difference in FT that game was like 37-22 in favor or Purdue..... making it even more shocking that Iowa stuck with them without Keegan.

It's going to come down to rebounds. Purdue won that battle last time 40-27.

Williams had 18 off the bench and Edey had 8, that's where the size thing puts a hurt on us without a guy approaching 7' 250#. Ogundele and Mulvey aren't ready so that leaves us with Rebraca who at 6'9" 220# you can hardly call him a power forward.

I know Fran has said a big part of the rebounding issues has been long bounces not going our way, but when your opponent's two centers get the same number of boards as your whole team, that's an issue getting out muscled under the basket.

 

[InGoodCo]

It's going to come down to rebounds. Purdue won that battle last time 40-27.

Williams had 18 off the bench and Edey had 8, that's where the size thing puts a hurt on us without a guy approaching 7' 250#. Ogundele and Mulvey aren't ready so that leaves us with Rebraca who at 6'9" 220# you can hardly call him a power forward.

I know Fran has said a big part of the rebounding issues has been long bounces not going our way, but when your opponent's two centers get the same number of boards as your whole team, that's an issue getting out muscled under the basket.

Right, I think the rebounding issue for Iowa is we're not very big. They've been big the last several years with good forward and center play and rebounding has really never been an issue for Fran's teams. I don't see the rebounding issue as a systemic issue, more of a the ingredients aren't there to make it work like it typically has. Iowa faced some attrition in height and size the past few years and they're still finding different ways to be a competitive team. That's what I like about Fran, he doesn't seem set in stone of winning a certain way - he really does try and play to each teams strengths.

 

[trj]

Barring some epic meltdown I think they are a tournament team. I am more concerned about seeding. The resume isn't great without any Q1 wins. If everything plays out as projected I can see Iowa being worthy of a 6 seed, but being "punished" because of the resume and end up being a 9 seed.

 

[trj]

It's also worth noting that since 2017 Iowa has won 44% of the games against ranked opponents and they are currently 0-3 this season (which has brought that % down). They have 4 games remaining against ranked opponents, 2 home and 2 on the road. They are over due to win at least 1 of them!

Purdue and MSU are the ones you need to circle. Gotta get one of those at home.