JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Take a look a the current Big Ten Standings.
Nine teams are within two games of first place as we near the midpoint of the conference season.
I couldn't tell you the last time the standings looked like this, this 'late' into the season. It might not be all that long ago, but it's been at least six years since I cared to look at the Big Ten standings on a daily basis.
There really wasn't much of a need, as I knew Iowa was no where near the top, or the middle and I just didn't need a reminder as to how far away the Hawkeyes were from being relevant.
I'd take a look at the standings in the first week of March or so to get a feel for what Iowa's Big Ten tournament seed would be and who they would face, but that was about it.
That isn't the case this year, since Iowa is one of those nine teams within shouting distance of first place.
I don't hold any real delusions of grandeur here, although there are some uber optimistic Hawkeye fans who feel Iowa can win nine of their remaining 11 games or something like that.
I'm not one of those folks, but for the road games at Indiana and Illinois, I do feel that nine of the 11 are games where if Iowa won, I would not be surprised. That's also about the only chance Iowa would have at being a part of this year's NCAA tournament discussion, so don't hold your breath; just sit back and enjoy the ride that is about to unfold.
Here is how I see Iowa's remaining schedule shaping up from the standpoint of 'most likey' wins to 'least likely'. The games at the top of the list, or the ones you will read first, are the most likely going down to #11 which I believe is least likely. I will also add a 'confidence' percentage. These numbers are my guesses and not taken from any other sites.
1. Nebraska at Iowa, January 26th: This is Iowa's next game and the Cornhuskers are not a great team. They are dead last in league play in points per game, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, three-point field goal percentage, rebounds per game, rebounds allowed per game and assist to turnover ratio. They are also 11th or 10th in other categories. Players to watch Bo Spencer & Toney McCray. Confidence: 75%
2. Penn State at Iowa, February 4th: Penn State is 11th in points per game, field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage. They are last in field goal percentage defense, assists and defensive rebounding. They do have the league's leading scorer in point guard Tim Frazier, who has done a nice job of filling in for the departed Talor Battle. Confidence: 70%, yet this will be Iowa's fourth game in a nine-day stretch.
3. Northwestern at Iowa, March 3rd: This game will serve as the regular season finale. John Shurna still plays for Northwestern, so there is that ugly but effective shooting style to contend with along with guard/forward Drew Crawford. Shurna is third in scoring with Crawford 10th. Beyond those two, you aren't really keying on anyone else. Confidence: 65%
4. Iowa at Nebraska, February 29th: Iowa's first visit to the Devaney Center won't be a cakewalk, as there is no such thing in the Big Ten this season. Nebraska recently beat Indiana in this building, but the Hoosiers may not be what we thought they were a few weeks ago. Confidence: 60%, and this will come at the end of a three games in six days stretch and the second of two straight road games.
5. Minnesota at Iowa, February 1st: Iowa beat the Gophers in The Barn earlier this month and Minnesota dropped their first four league games. However, they have won three in a row, including a game at Indiana. Their size can present problems for the Hawks but I am glad this game is at home. Notice that three of the first five games I list are also three of Iowa's next four games; the Hawks really need to win these three games to make some kind of post season tournament. This game is on a Wednesday night and Iowa will have played on the road Sunday with the Gophers having played on Saturday, so one more day of rest for Minnesota. It will also be Iowa's third game in a six-day stretch. Confidence: 55%
6. Indiana at Iowa, February 19th: If the Hoosiers are hitting their three's, they'll win. If they don't, they won't. Confidence: 50%
7. Iowa at Penn State, February 16th: Iowa has not fared so well in Happy Valley. They are 6-9 there all time, including their last four. In my opinion, Iowa's loss there on 2/13/02 was one of the low points of the Alford era. Three of those four straight losses have come by four points or less. Confidence: 45%
8. Wisconsin at Iowa, February 23rd: I think this year's Wisconsin team is a good matchup for Iowa. The Hawks lost at home to the Badgers one year ago in overtime and then beat Wisconsin in Madison earlier this season. The Badgers are starting to put things together, having won four straight including Sunday's win at Illinois and a win at Purdue. Confidence: 40%
9. Iowa at Northwestern, February 7th: Iowa is 2-8 at Northwestern in their last 10 meetings. Vomit. Confidence: 35%
10: Iowa at Indiana, January 29th: Believe it or not, Iowa has won four of their last seven games in Bloomington, including two in a row. My guess is Iowa has more road wins in Assembly Hall than any other building in the Big Ten dating back to at least 2006. However, this year's Indiana team is the best the Hoosiers have put on the floor in the Tom Crean era. Confidence: 35%
11. Iowa at Illinois, February 26th: Iowa beat Illinois 91-88 in Champaign in January of 1987. I was 15 years old and it's still my all time favorite Iowa basketball game, as the Hawkeyes came back from a 22-point second half deficit to remain undefeated as a part of their school best 18-0 start and only #1 ranking in school history. Since that game, Iowa has one win in Illinois' Assembly Hall, and it came February 21st, 1999, which will be over 13 years ago when this game tips off. Illinois has won six straight in this series overall, and 12 of the last 14. Confidence: 10%
Nine teams are within two games of first place as we near the midpoint of the conference season.
I couldn't tell you the last time the standings looked like this, this 'late' into the season. It might not be all that long ago, but it's been at least six years since I cared to look at the Big Ten standings on a daily basis.
There really wasn't much of a need, as I knew Iowa was no where near the top, or the middle and I just didn't need a reminder as to how far away the Hawkeyes were from being relevant.
I'd take a look at the standings in the first week of March or so to get a feel for what Iowa's Big Ten tournament seed would be and who they would face, but that was about it.
That isn't the case this year, since Iowa is one of those nine teams within shouting distance of first place.
I don't hold any real delusions of grandeur here, although there are some uber optimistic Hawkeye fans who feel Iowa can win nine of their remaining 11 games or something like that.
I'm not one of those folks, but for the road games at Indiana and Illinois, I do feel that nine of the 11 are games where if Iowa won, I would not be surprised. That's also about the only chance Iowa would have at being a part of this year's NCAA tournament discussion, so don't hold your breath; just sit back and enjoy the ride that is about to unfold.
Here is how I see Iowa's remaining schedule shaping up from the standpoint of 'most likey' wins to 'least likely'. The games at the top of the list, or the ones you will read first, are the most likely going down to #11 which I believe is least likely. I will also add a 'confidence' percentage. These numbers are my guesses and not taken from any other sites.
1. Nebraska at Iowa, January 26th: This is Iowa's next game and the Cornhuskers are not a great team. They are dead last in league play in points per game, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, three-point field goal percentage, rebounds per game, rebounds allowed per game and assist to turnover ratio. They are also 11th or 10th in other categories. Players to watch Bo Spencer & Toney McCray. Confidence: 75%
2. Penn State at Iowa, February 4th: Penn State is 11th in points per game, field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage. They are last in field goal percentage defense, assists and defensive rebounding. They do have the league's leading scorer in point guard Tim Frazier, who has done a nice job of filling in for the departed Talor Battle. Confidence: 70%, yet this will be Iowa's fourth game in a nine-day stretch.
3. Northwestern at Iowa, March 3rd: This game will serve as the regular season finale. John Shurna still plays for Northwestern, so there is that ugly but effective shooting style to contend with along with guard/forward Drew Crawford. Shurna is third in scoring with Crawford 10th. Beyond those two, you aren't really keying on anyone else. Confidence: 65%
4. Iowa at Nebraska, February 29th: Iowa's first visit to the Devaney Center won't be a cakewalk, as there is no such thing in the Big Ten this season. Nebraska recently beat Indiana in this building, but the Hoosiers may not be what we thought they were a few weeks ago. Confidence: 60%, and this will come at the end of a three games in six days stretch and the second of two straight road games.
5. Minnesota at Iowa, February 1st: Iowa beat the Gophers in The Barn earlier this month and Minnesota dropped their first four league games. However, they have won three in a row, including a game at Indiana. Their size can present problems for the Hawks but I am glad this game is at home. Notice that three of the first five games I list are also three of Iowa's next four games; the Hawks really need to win these three games to make some kind of post season tournament. This game is on a Wednesday night and Iowa will have played on the road Sunday with the Gophers having played on Saturday, so one more day of rest for Minnesota. It will also be Iowa's third game in a six-day stretch. Confidence: 55%
6. Indiana at Iowa, February 19th: If the Hoosiers are hitting their three's, they'll win. If they don't, they won't. Confidence: 50%
7. Iowa at Penn State, February 16th: Iowa has not fared so well in Happy Valley. They are 6-9 there all time, including their last four. In my opinion, Iowa's loss there on 2/13/02 was one of the low points of the Alford era. Three of those four straight losses have come by four points or less. Confidence: 45%
8. Wisconsin at Iowa, February 23rd: I think this year's Wisconsin team is a good matchup for Iowa. The Hawks lost at home to the Badgers one year ago in overtime and then beat Wisconsin in Madison earlier this season. The Badgers are starting to put things together, having won four straight including Sunday's win at Illinois and a win at Purdue. Confidence: 40%
9. Iowa at Northwestern, February 7th: Iowa is 2-8 at Northwestern in their last 10 meetings. Vomit. Confidence: 35%
10: Iowa at Indiana, January 29th: Believe it or not, Iowa has won four of their last seven games in Bloomington, including two in a row. My guess is Iowa has more road wins in Assembly Hall than any other building in the Big Ten dating back to at least 2006. However, this year's Indiana team is the best the Hoosiers have put on the floor in the Tom Crean era. Confidence: 35%
11. Iowa at Illinois, February 26th: Iowa beat Illinois 91-88 in Champaign in January of 1987. I was 15 years old and it's still my all time favorite Iowa basketball game, as the Hawkeyes came back from a 22-point second half deficit to remain undefeated as a part of their school best 18-0 start and only #1 ranking in school history. Since that game, Iowa has one win in Illinois' Assembly Hall, and it came February 21st, 1999, which will be over 13 years ago when this game tips off. Illinois has won six straight in this series overall, and 12 of the last 14. Confidence: 10%
