QB Regression

Seth53

Seth53

Well-Known Member
I know, I know....this has been hashed and re-hashed many times on this board.

I'm 61, been an astute Hawkeye watcher, etc for 5+ decades...i.e. I'm not some wild-eyed kid acting on emotion.

But for the life of me, I don't see how one can argue against the rationalization that the longer an Iowa QB (under the current coaching staff(s)) is in the system, the worse they perform.

I'm not talking about stats, which pile up naturally with more starts. I'm talking about game management, picking up defenses, making smart choices...not repeating errors over and over they made earlier in their career, etc...fill in the blank.

Stanley is the quintessential example of this. He isn't playing any better now than he did three years ago.

My theory is there is a pretty big blanket thrown on the QBs regarding what and what not to do and it ends up being suffocating.

Thoughts?
 
AreWeThereYet said:
Well, the middle of the offensive line has certainly regressed.
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Ya think? Our line protection for Stanley is like the US navy protection of their decks bulkheads (walls) during Pearl Harbor. Consistently and repeatedly getting blown up. You can’t have that unless Drew Breeze is your quarterback.

He just doesn’t have the speed to evade the rush. If your going to stick with this pro style type of offense it’s an absolute must that you protect the pocket. On occasion they have had some success rolling him out to his right to pass to receivers also rolling out to the right to by him time. That won’t work on a repeated basis however as the defensive end will be waiting to kill your QB.

As far as his skills he is an enigma. He can put that ball right on the dime one moment and then over throw a receiver by ten yards or throw behind a wide open receiver. On a scale of one to ten with ten being a top notch power five QB I would give him an 8. However even as I say that I just shrug my shoulders because we just don’t know if his receivers have the speed and ability to get open. That's not his fault.

Personally I like the Brad Banks type of QB. Brad had the speed to run for significant yards or to evade a rush to buy time. That’s not Stanley’s game.
 
This is an interesting subject because there is a noticable trend that wins typically go down in a senior year even though sometimes the stats get better. Stanzi especially fits this trend.

We seem to have fond memories of Stanzi's junior year even though if you actually examined it, his play was kind of Jeckl and Hyde. He typically would have slow starts in a game, throw a pick-6 and Iowa would always be behind a team they should be beating easily, but then Stanzi would get his sh!t together and do what he had to do to win the game at the end. It just seemed like in clutch time he had "it". Whatever "it" took, he did "it"

His senior year, his stats got much better, he stopped throwing those pick-6, and Iowa would actually be leading the game in the 3Q. Then the offense would go into a shell and the defense would slowly get tired and eventually blow the game. When it came time for Stanzi to save Iowa late in the 4Q, he just didn't have "it" anymore.

So what's going on? Does being less risk adverse make a QB lose their edge in crunch time?
 
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I have a theory the coaches only throw half the playbook at them or let them read half the field their first year. With each new year they expand the responsibility for the QB . I have heard rumors this takes place under Ferentz
 
His long throws are much better. I agree that the interior line has let him down a lot, particularly since he isn’t very mobile.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
as long as it keeps happening, people will keep talking about it
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When has it happened? Banks had a great Sr. season, Tate was injured his Sr. season, Stanzi had his best year be far his Sr. season. JVB had Greg davis come in, CJB got drafted in the 3rd round, and the jury it out on Stanley.

Oh yeah, but the Sr QB's missed more reads those years, LOL.
 
Seth53 said:
I know, I know....this has been hashed and re-hashed many times on this board.

I'm 61, been an astute Hawkeye watcher, etc for 5+ decades...i.e. I'm not some wild-eyed kid acting on emotion.

But for the life of me, I don't see how one can argue against the rationalization that the longer an Iowa QB (under the current coaching staff(s)) is in the system, the worse they perform.

I'm not talking about stats, which pile up naturally with more starts. I'm talking about game management, picking up defenses, making smart choices...not repeating errors over and over they made earlier in their career, etc...fill in the blank.

Stanley is the quintessential example of this. He isn't playing any better now than he did three years ago.

My theory is there is a pretty big blanket thrown on the QBs regarding what and what not to do and it ends up being suffocating.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I would say this is Nate's best year, not head and shoulders above his first two years, but still better. Less head-scratching throws, better accuracy.
 
Seth53 said:
I know, I know....this has been hashed and re-hashed many times on this board.

I'm 61, been an astute Hawkeye watcher, etc for 5+ decades...i.e. I'm not some wild-eyed kid acting on emotion.

But for the life of me, I don't see how one can argue against the rationalization that the longer an Iowa QB (under the current coaching staff(s)) is in the system, the worse they perform.

I'm not talking about stats, which pile up naturally with more starts. I'm talking about game management, picking up defenses, making smart choices...not repeating errors over and over they made earlier in their career, etc...fill in the blank.

Stanley is the quintessential example of this. He isn't playing any better now than he did three years ago.

My theory is there is a pretty big blanket thrown on the QBs regarding what and what not to do and it ends up being suffocating.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

seth, it is mind boggling. you're presumption is as good as the next. it does feel like our qb's are not coached to relax and let it fly.
 
deanvogs said:
When has it happened? Banks had a great Sr. season, Tate was injured his Sr. season, Stanzi had his best year be far his Sr. season. JVB had Greg davis come in, CJB got drafted in the 3rd round, and the jury it out on Stanley.

Oh yeah, but the Sr QB's missed more reads those years, LOL.
Click to expand...

Banks only played as a Sr so there's no comparator
Tate is one of the exceptions to every QB post re: the KFz era. He was a real play maker.
CJB is another exception, but even his Sr stats were under his Jr year.
The jury may be out on Stanley (some would disagree) but nothing short of a sweep in the last 4 games will elevate him.

Perhaps if the discussion was framed as "IOWA QBs never peak as Seniors" instead of "they regress" there'd be a more solid argument. A Senior QB, especially in his 3rd year as starter...is expected to be exceptional. KFz's typically have not.
 
ArvadaHawk said:
it is amazing how the OL seems regress in unison with the iowa qb the more seasons in a row that iowa qb is the starter.
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It's even more amazing how the philosophy seems to be the exact opposite on the other side of the ball, and confirmed by former Hawkeye Matt Bowen in a thread from yesterday. Parker wants players to play fast and free, with less information to bog them down.

Our QB's seem to be more robotic with time, take fewer chances, have a greater fear of mistakes. I know from the games I've seen that Stanley isn't taking as many shots downfield this year. Remember Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue and Illinois last year? It supports the narrative that this team is leaning heavily on it's defense and is more than happy to settle for three when it gets in or near the red zone.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
as long as it keeps happening, people will keep talking about it
Click to expand...

The biggest factor here is the offense is so bad so much. Take Stanley for example. He comes in as a SO, has great games against ISU and OSU, and some other very solid games, but overall the offense is average at best. However hope is renewed. We have a young QB that has shown the ability to throw the ball down the field and he'll be here two more years.

But eventually reality sets in. KF continues to meddle with the offense and the offense doesn't improve, adjust, or take advantage of specific skillsets from QBs or really anyone at the skill positions. And of course who gets blamed? The QB and OC.

But I've said this before and I'll continue saying it. OCs have changed, QBs have changed. Talent, experience, has changed. But only 2 things have stayed the same: Lack of offensive production and the HC.
 
Stanley leads the B1G in passing yards and has a 10-5 TD to int ratio - Iowa also has a better record at this point in the West division then it has had the past 3 seasons. How is this regressing?

oh and could it be that the more defenses see a QB the easier it is to game plan against them? Seriously.... name me a running QB in the NFL that didn't regress after their breakout season? Is that because they suddenly forgot how to run or D's adjusted?
 
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