PSU -5

[hwk23]

PSU -5 is the opening line. Sagarin shows Iowa #9 and PSU #10 and PSU favored by 2.5 since they’re at home. Iowa is 6-1 against the Vegas spread so far.

Here are the remaining games per the most recent Sagarin; Purdue +3.5, NW +16, Illinois +25.5, Nebraska +20.5.

 

[Motigerhawk]

We are 5 point dogs? What does Vegas know that I dont?

 

[hawkdrummer1]

We are 5 point dogs? What does Vegas know that I dont?

meaning....? That sounds about right.

 

[dahlhawk]

Road game at Happy Valley where we got beat 100 to nothing last time. Now only 5 point dogs. Some people are never happy.

 

[SmokeTownHawk]

I don't see the issue.

 

[SamBrownlee48]

We are 5 point dogs? What does Vegas know that I dont?

Not much. You've made a killing if you've road the hawks against the spread this year.

 

[proudhawkfan21]

I dont think its an "issue." I think its an even money game, perhaps Hawks -1.

 

[cincyhawk]

Yeah - 5 points is a little much. I like Sagarin's line.

 

[CP87]

PSU -5 is the opening line. Sagarin shows Iowa #9 and PSU #10 and PSU favored by 2.5 since they’re at home. Iowa is 6-1 against the Vegas spread so far.

Here are the remaining games per the most recent Sagarin; Purdue +3.5, NW +16, Illinois +25.5, Nebraska +20.5.

I saw different opening lines from a few people on twitter. I saw it listed anywhere from PSU -9 to PSU -7.5 at opening, and then it was bet almost immediately to -5 to -4.5.

 

[STILLBUSTER]

Gonna be a dog-fight. I see it coming down to ...
- ball control (like the Hawks balance on offense),
- turnovers (hoping Stanley stops his streak of that horrible, panic heave straight to the other team),
- and ingenuity / execution on the last drive (advantage PSU).

PSU 23 - Hawks 20.

 

[Motigerhawk]

Iowa 31 PsU 14

 

[Fryowa]

Yeah - 5 points is a little much. I like Sagarin's line.

Couldn't ask for a better example of confirmation bias.

 

[PlatypusMessiah]

I guess Deace will take Iowa; better defense getting points.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Who'd have thunk after we beat PSU that the game of the BIG west will be between Iowa and Purdue... The talking heads at ESPN will loooove that (sarcasm)

 

[Lumberman]

With the trouble PSU has had against lesser teams this year I am not nearly as worried about this game as I was when I saw the schedule at the beginning of the year.

If the Hawks come out hungry and with the same chip on their shoulder that they have shown since the loss to Wisky, I think we win and frustrate the hell out of McSorley.

It is such a long trip and these are just kids, so I think the possibility that they play tired and jet lagged is there. Hopefully they see how dominant the defense can be and really BRING IT against a traditional Blue Blood and show the country just how good this team really is.

I hope they take full advantage of this opportunity. They need a signature win.

 

[hwk23]

I saw different opening lines from a few people on twitter. I saw it listed anywhere from PSU -9 to PSU -7.5 at opening, and then it was bet almost immediately to -5 to -4.5.

I saw that too. I go by the opening line on the Vegas Insider site. Idk, what's the best source. Oddshark shows the opening line as -9 but currently -4.5. That's a big swing.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds

 

[NCHawker]

After watching PSU Indy and PSU MSU, I am confident that Iowa can win this game...just play clean and they will win.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

We are 5 point dogs? What does Vegas know that I dont?

Usually, the home team automatically gets a 3 pt bump just for being the home team.

 

[lightning1]

I dont think its an "issue." I think its an even money game, perhaps Hawks -1.

Exactly. It's a toss up. Our defense is playing well enough. I wouldn't touch it as far as betting money goes. I stopped betting money on a KF led football team a long time ago. Unless someone was willing to give me stupid odds/points. I think the last game I bet real money on was the Orange Bowl against GT. I cleaned up on that game.

 

[Fryowa]

I saw that too. I go by the opening line on the Vegas Insider site. Idk, what's the best source. Oddshark shows the opening line as -9 but currently -4.5. That's a big swing.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds

Big swings like that out of Vegas are and indication that they either have no clue how the game will go, or that they've got lopsided bets placed and they're trying to steer the money. Almost always a combination of both because one is a function of the other. There had to be a shitload of people taking that -9. On the surface that looks like a dumb mistake, but it obviously got a bunch of attention (enough to shave 4.5) which is what they want.

As far as Vegas is concerned this will end up being a pick'em with (like @MelroseHawkins said) a small home field edge. They looooooove these games because there are way more suckers who think they're sharks than actual sharks, and these games bring suckers out of the woodwork.