PSU -5

[mopkins]

Big swings like that out of Vegas are and indication that they either have no clue how the game will go, or that they've got lopsided bets placed and they're trying to steer the money. Almost always a combination of both because one is a function of the other. There had to be a shitload of people taking that -9. On the surface that looks like a dumb mistake, but it obviously got a bunch of attention (enough to shave 4.5) which is what they want.

As far as Vegas is concerned this will end up being a pick'em with (like @MelroseHawkins said) a small home field edge. They looooooove these games because there are way more suckers who think they're sharks than actual sharks, and these games bring suckers out of the woodwork.

I believe that -9 opening was just an offshore aberration. Usually there's one or two offshore sites that try to set an early line to get the early action. If you look at the vegas opening line it was set at -5 which is about where it is now.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

[thedukeofearl]

There is also the factor that the Hawks do not have faulty memories. They remember that disgraceful slaughter at PennState two years ago. That was extremely embarrassing, a, 41-14, ass-kicking that we were further humiliated by after the game videos, showing the PennState linebackers pointing out our next play.....

This season we are not quite as predictable, by far.....

That was difficult to forget and last season we almost paid them back. We had them despite Barkley having another outstanding game, and lost on the fourth down, last play of the game with no time on the clock by about 2 inches or so. We were that close to an upset.....


That was a bitter pill to swallow. This season McSorley doesn't have Barkley to rely on and distract, and this game Jajuan Johnson will probably be unable to play. McSorley is not playing as well this season, and our D is much better and it should be more difficult for him to run out of trouble for a first down as he did against Indiana.....

The Indiana game was a hard fought one and Penn St players were constantly limping off the field, It will take it's toll next Saturday and we had a cakewalk against Maryland and will be in fine shape, physically and mentally.....

This team is determined and focused and I do not expect this to change no matter where they play.....

Hawks by at least a TD this Saturday .....

 

[cincyhawk]

Couldn't ask for a better example of confirmation bias.

Lol. Sagarin is 2.45. If I'm for a field goal underdog and Vegas is for a field goal and two extra points, it's not that big of a bias. I do think this is a FG game.

 

[HawksMN]

There is also the factor that the Hawks do not have faulty memories. They remember that disgraceful slaughter at PennState two years ago. That was extremely embarrassing, a, 41-14, ass-kicking that we were further humiliated by after the game videos, showing the PennState linebackers pointing out our next play.....

This season we are not quite as predictable, by far.....

That was difficult to forget and last season we almost paid them back. We had them despite Barkley having another outstanding game, and lost on the fourth down, last play of the game with no time on the clock by about 2 inches or so. We were that close to an upset.....


That was a bitter pill to swallow. This season McSorley doesn't have Barkley to rely on and distract, and this game Jajuan Johnson will probably be unable to play. McSorley is not playing as well this season, and our D is much better and it should be more difficult for him to run out of trouble for a first down as he did against Indiana.....

The Indiana game was a hard fought one and Penn St players were constantly limping off the field, It will take it's toll next Saturday and we had a cakewalk against Maryland and will be in fine shape, physically and mentally.....

This team is determined and focused and I do not expect this to change no matter where they play.....

Hawks by at least a TD this Saturday .....

Well played. Hawks have the big time chip in this one. Hope they play a little pissed. Hope AJ and PH throw Mcsorely around like a rag doll. Key is must play clean. Silly Stanley picks or special team gaffes opens the door back up....