Program Expectations and Reality

[Knight78]

I got to thinking after Jay Bilas said he has never seen a team as prepared for what MSU was doing as iowa was. Maybe the reason we lose so many close games is because the team with better players has a better chance to win close games and maybe our team with worse players was only in the position to win because what Bilas said was true and Fran really gets a team prepared well. Once Patrick got diagnosed with cancer, Fran lost focus and we lost the one advantage we had. All we had left was an unprepared team that wasn't more talented than our opponents.

This theory also works well for why we were dominating first halfs and losing second halfs so bad. Fran finds a way to give his inferior team the advantage and at halftime, the better team adjusts and takes away that advantage and wins. Of course all of this stems on Bilas being correct in his assessment. It sure makes sense to me though.

I also believe what happened last year was directly related to Patrick's diagnosis. It's awfully hard to focus when your family member is diagnosed with cancer; I hope I never have to deal with one of my children being diagnosed.

 

[Knight78]

Good question. Also, what is his winning percentage at each of his stops when backing out the first 2 years...totally rebuilding and/or transitioning.

Lehigh
1986 13-15
1987 15-14
1988 21-10 NCAA Qualifier

UNC Greensboro
2000 15-13
2001 19-12 NCAA Qualifier
2002 20-11 NIT Qualifier, Southern Conference North champ
2003 7-22
2004 11-17
2005 18-12

Siena
2006 15-13
2007 20-12
2008 23-11 NCAA Qualifier, 2nd round
2009 27-8 NCAA Qualifier, 2nd round
2010 27-7 NCAA Qualifier

The years between Lehigh and UNC Greensboro, he was an assistant at Notre Dame.

Overall record before coming to Iowa was 251-177 (58.6%). Removing the first two years at each school, as you suggest for "rebuilding years" his record is 154-98 (61.1%).

 

[docholihawk]

1 – Fran inherited a dead program…being generous even calling it a program.
2 – Fran took what he could get for recruits coming in his 1st year and worked to retain the committed players.
3 – Fran signed some guys with potential in his 1st true recruiting class…Oglesby, Olaseni and White.
4 – In his 2nd recruiting class Fran signed 2 four star players…Gesell and Woodbury. He also signed some guys with potential…Clemmons, Meyer and Ingram. He got a very talented transfer...4 star recruit.
5 – Fran signed 1 three star player (Jok) that filled a need and had a lot of upside.
6 – Fran worked his tail off to land his 1st five star and had him until Kentucky came calling. He still landed a 3 star (Uhl) that everyone in the recruiting world thought was going to Temple. He signed a shooter (Ellingson) and a JC PG…2 guys with potential upside.
7 – Fran signed 1 four star and 3 three star players…and got us back in Chicago.
8 – Fran already has some underclassmen verbally committed.

Note – I used ESPN’s rankings…just to be consistent not because they are necessarily right or wrong.


So to be as brief as possible this is how I see it…just my opinion. Fran gets a pass for year 1 on his record and recruits. The White and Gesell classes were brought in to turn Iowa into a winning program and ultimately get us back into the NCAA Tournament. These are the transition classes/years. It wasn’t fair to expect the world but progress was expected. Fran and these 2 classes had to take Iowa from nowhere to something. And they have done this…NIT – NIT Championship Game – NCAA – NCAA (as of today’s projected brackets).

Jok, Uthoff, Uhl and future classes are supposed to not only get into the NCAA the majority of the time but win some games and make some noise. It remains to be seen if this will happen. And it will be totally subjective by individual if these classes ultimately meet expectations…NCAA every year, Sweet 16, etc. But IMO Iowa is right where I hoped they would be when we hired Fran. We’re in the NCAA tournament and/or conversation late in the season for the 3rd consecutive year. And I view this season as somewhere between transition and established/arrived program.

Like most everyone else I expect us to be in the NCAA Tournament regularly moving forward. I expect us to win some games in the tournament. I expect us to finish in the top 4 of the conference standings about 50% of the time. Let’s stay the course and see what happens…this year and the next couple of years. From my perspective things are right on schedule.

I like most of the players Fran has brought in and I know we're a longshot to land a 5 star. The player I want to see Fran land is the alpha male strong leader who wants the ball in his hands at clutch times. I don't care if he's a 2 star. I think Uthoff is going is going to be a much stronger leader next year. Right now I think everybody is waiting for Aaron White to lead but he hasn't stepped up and is not the leader I expected to see.
I'm guessing next years seniors will be a lot better leading knowing it's their last year.

 

[ryno]

Are you talking about Zach McCabe, the guy who so many last year (likely you included) were saying was awful and shouldn't see 5 minutes of playing time in any game? That guy?

I do agree that the Lickliter excuses at this point have run their course, but if you don't think trying to recruit high level talent to an Iowa team that had been thru multiple 10-11 win seasons is tough then I don't know what to tell you. You either take the best you can get in state and fill in with mid-level recruits or you take the route that Hoiberg has taken at ISU.

What I'm looking at is recruiting moving forward. While Fran absolutely still has to prove he can close, we've been more strongly in the mix (final 3, etc) for much more highly rated out of state players lately. He seems to have gotten a foot back in the door in Chicagoland as well. How that ends up and who he actually gets to sign on the dotted line for the '16 and '17 classes will be a major factor as to whether Iowa continues to move upward or has hit the ceiling.

Blame Lickliter is like blaming Bush for Obama's issues. Move on. Time will tell on Fran. I would say 50/50 at this time.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I like most of the players Fran has brought in and I know we're a longshot to land a 5 star. The player I want to see Fran land is the alpha male strong leader who wants the ball in his hands at clutch times. I don't care if he's a 2 star. I think Uthoff is going is going to be a much stronger leader next year. Right now I think everybody is waiting for Aaron White to lead but he hasn't stepped up and is not the leader I expected to see.
I'm guessing next years seniors will be a lot better leading knowing it's their last year.

I agree with your comments on Uthoff and the other seniors next year. I think White wants to lead but it's hard to take control when a player is so one dimensional on offense.

 

[TheLorax]

2 NCAA tournament wins in 19 years, both first rounders. This is Fran's highest accomplishment. We are getting his absolute best effort, he just sucks.

 

[lightning1]

The reasons why I think we are seeing Fran's ceiling.
#1. We are well into his 5th year and players don't know their roles.
#2. His in-game management is poor. He never uses his time outs to break another team's momentum, or to correct problems on the court.
#3. He's still recruiting mid-major talent.
#4. His personnel decisions are suspect. Gabe's upside is twice what Woody's is, yet they split minutes to the detriment of Gabe's development. Gabe hasn't been playing basketball very long. The more minutes he gets, the faster he realizes his full potential. I'm not even going to start on Ogelsby.
These are all things that I and several others have seen and discussed here. I am beginning to believe it's a coaching problem because this is the same thing we saw in season 2, 3, 4 and now 5. I say this while admitting that I have met and talked to Fran. I have watched him interact with people and kids in public. I love his passion and I genuinely like the man. I try to be realistic and give my honest opinion.
I certainly could be wrong and have been wrong before.

 

[TheIowaHawkGuy]

The reasons why I think we are seeing Fran's ceiling.
#1. We are well into his 5th year and players don't know their roles.
#2. His in-game management is poor. He never uses his time outs to break another team's momentum, or to correct problems on the court.
#3. He's still recruiting mid-major talent.
#4. His personnel decisions are suspect. Gabe's upside is twice what Woody's is, yet they split minutes to the detriment of Gabe's development. Gabe hasn't been playing basketball very long. The more minutes he gets, the faster he realizes his full potential. I'm not even going to start on Ogelsby.
These are all things that I and several others have seen and discussed here. I am beginning to believe it's a coaching problem because this is the same thing we saw in season 2, 3, 4 and now 5. I say this while admitting that I have met and talked to Fran. I have watched him interact with people and kids in public. I love his passion and I genuinely like the man. I try to be realistic and give my honest opinion.
I certainly could be wrong and have been wrong before.

Spot on

 

[PCHawk]

The reasons why I think we are seeing Fran's ceiling.
#1. We are well into his 5th year and players don't know their roles.
#2. His in-game management is poor. He never uses his time outs to break another team's momentum, or to correct problems on the court.
#3. He's still recruiting mid-major talent.
#4. His personnel decisions are suspect. Gabe's upside is twice what Woody's is, yet they split minutes to the detriment of Gabe's development. Gabe hasn't been playing basketball very long. The more minutes he gets, the faster he realizes his full potential. I'm not even going to start on Ogelsby.
These are all things that I and several others have seen and discussed here. I am beginning to believe it's a coaching problem because this is the same thing we saw in season 2, 3, 4 and now 5. I say this while admitting that I have met and talked to Fran. I have watched him interact with people and kids in public. I love his passion and I genuinely like the man. I try to be realistic and give my honest opinion.
I certainly could be wrong and have been wrong before.

I pretty much agree with most of this. I just think his ceiling is higher even with those flaws.

 

[TheIowaHawkGuy]

It just really makes sense in a lot of ways. If we would have finished in the top 10 or so last year, almost everyone would be happy with Fran reguardless of what happens these last 6 games. I would hate to give up on a coach who was on pace for a top 10 finish before some extremely unfortunate circumstances.

What were those? A beam falling and a Twitter ban?

 

[Seth53]

Not sure I'm adding anything new, but I'll add my two cents....

Positives
It's nice to be relevant again.
Lickliter = Commings, etc. So nice to not be BAD anymore
Talent begets talent. Fran, IMO, has broken that seal....better recruits will keep coming
I say this because I think Fran was pretty darned close to getting Ulis.
Fran speaks his mind and is clear and articulate. He represents the program well IMO.


Negatives
The inconsistency drives me bonkers. Not a sign of a truly stable program.
Not sure how strong the supporting coaching staff is.
Also not sure how well he develops players. White, Basabe, Woody are three examples. Olaseni seems to be the outlier.
Fran's personnel rotations drives me bonkers as well. This far into the season and our rotation should be 90% set....I'm not sure it is.

Bottom line-->this time last year, I was 100% certain we were well on our way to becoming nationally recognized and a legit contender in the B1G. Then the flop, then this year's 6-6. Now I'm just not sure...and to say that probably is saying a lot.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Also not sure how well he develops players. White, Basabe, Woody are three examples. Olaseni seems to be the outlier.

I think every program has players that develop/improve and players that don't seem to progress. Olaseni has clearly improved. Jok and Uthoff are both much improved from last year. Jok isn't teaching himself how to play defense. Woodbury's numbers are up from last year and he shares time with Olaseni...better idea on Woodbury next year post Gabe. I don't think it's fair to say Woodbury isn't getting better simply because many want his ceiling to be higher. We all know Woodbury and Olaseni hold each other's stats down due to shared playing time at the 5. Marble was obviously much better.

 

[PCHawk]

What were those? A beam falling and a Twitter ban?

Fran's son.

 

[deanvogs]

The reasons why I think we are seeing Fran's ceiling.
#1. We are well into his 5th year and players don't know their roles.
#2. His in-game management is poor. He never uses his time outs to break another team's momentum, or to correct problems on the court.
#3. He's still recruiting mid-major talent.
#4. His personnel decisions are suspect. Gabe's upside is twice what Woody's is, yet they split minutes to the detriment of Gabe's development. Gabe hasn't been playing basketball very long. The more minutes he gets, the faster he realizes his full potential. I'm not even going to start on Ogelsby.
These are all things that I and several others have seen and discussed here. I am beginning to believe it's a coaching problem because this is the same thing we saw in season 2, 3, 4 and now 5. I say this while admitting that I have met and talked to Fran. I have watched him interact with people and kids in public. I love his passion and I genuinely like the man. I try to be realistic and give my honest opinion.
I certainly could be wrong and have been wrong before.

Good post, and a lot of what I think as well. I really don't see Fran doing much better than maybe making Iowa a fringe NCAA team on a consistent basis. This is year 5, this is when every last player on the roster was a guy he targeted, recruited, and signed. This should be a for sure NCAA year, not a "maybe" year, with year 6 looking even less likely than this year.

 

[TheIowaHawkGuy]

Fran's son.

That didn't happen until the near end of their collapse. The NW game in the BTT and the First Four game maybe. Fran created unneeded negative distraction with the Twitter ban last year and he did it again with the media comments.

 

[MiniMoeHawk]

That didn't happen until the near end of their collapse. The NW game in the BTT and the First Four game maybe. Fran created unneeded negative distraction with the Twitter ban last year and he did it again with the media comments.

Correct, the season was already in shambles by then.

 

[PCHawk]

That didn't happen until the near end of their collapse. The NW game in the BTT and the First Four game maybe. Fran created unneeded negative distraction with the Twitter ban last year and he did it again with the media comments.

That's when it became public. Is that for sure when Fran found out?

 

[blubberhawk]

I think every program has players that develop/improve and players that don't seem to progress. Olaseni has clearly improved. Jok and Uthoff are both much improved from last year. Jok isn't teaching himself how to play defense. Woodbury's numbers are up from last year and he shares time with Olaseni...better idea on Woodbury next year post Gabe. I don't think it's fair to say Woodbury isn't getting better simply because many want his ceiling to be higher. We all know Woodbury and Olaseni hold each other's stats down due to shared playing time at the 5. Marble was obviously much better.

I am sorry. Woodbury is a flop. Slow & uncoordinated. Poor hands & No jumping ability. 7 footer who plays like a very slow and uncoordinated 6'6" player. If he has any spot on this team, it should be to give Gabe a breather. He should be nowhere near the floor at crunch time in a tight game.

You will never convince me that Iowa isn't a better team without him stumbling around out there.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I am sorry. Woodbury is a flop. Slow & uncoordinated. Poor hands & No jumping ability. 7 footer who plays like a very slow and uncoordinated 6'6" player. If he has any spot on this team, it should be to give Gabe a breather. He should be nowhere near the floor at crunch time in a tight game.

You will never convince me that Iowa isn't a better team without him stumbling around out there.

I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I just looked at the stats and how he has taken over at times this season. His stats are better than last year. We'll see what his senior season brings when he's not sharing time at the 5. Both he and Gabe should be playing...hot hand getting the majority of the minutes in any given game.

 

[Knight78]

That didn't happen until the near end of their collapse. The NW game in the BTT and the First Four game maybe. Fran created unneeded negative distraction with the Twitter ban last year and he did it again with the media comments.

Fran received the news just before the Mich St game. We didn't win a game after Fran received the news. Lost at Mich St, Illinois at home and Northwestern in the B1G tournament, then lost to Tennessee in the NCAA tournament. We won the game just before, beating Purdue at home.