glidinghawk
Well-Known Member
The selection committee puts a lot of weight on recent performance. If Iowa loses to Northwestern, I think they could be the last team out.
Probability of Making Tourney
- Thread starter OKHawk
- Start date
The selection committee puts a lot of weight on recent performance. If Iowa loses to Northwestern, I think they could be the last team out.
That's only if you were on the bubble. We're not on the bubble! Now we may draw an 8 or 9 seed and that's not bubble material 10-12 is a bubble team. I think Jim Jackson said it best when he said they will have more success outside of the Big Ten. Look at the teams who beat us non-conference.. ISU who is almost like a Big Ten team since we play them every year and Nova which is close to a 1 seed. Yep lose and we're out.... NO!
volhawk50
Well-Known Member
I want to hear your argument.
HawkeyeHypnosis
Well-Known Member
Whats funny is I have only heard one media guy say that Iowa doesn't deserve to be in but they are. Other people discussing it are Iowa fans. If you can't see that were in, you just don't get it.
I think we are in according to all the made up numbers that are used for the NCAA tournament. e.g. SOS, etc. However, when you look at the schedule, it's none too impressive. We beat 1 decent team in the preseason; Xavier in OT. We beat Nebraska,ohio st.,michigan for decent wins. That's it. The last 3 weeks have been a joke. When we have played good teams we have lost. If we somehow find a way to lose to Northwestern, i wouldn't count my chickens just yet.
Lose to NW and you are sub .500 in the conference 9-10.
They no longer put as much emphasis on the last 10 games, they are no longer more important than the first 10. (Had it been the old way Iowa would have been sweating).
At the end of the day beating OSU on the road, Michigan at home should be enough to put Iowa over the top. Regardless what happens in the Big Ten tourney.
I think there are like 36 at large bids now.
Multi bid leagues, are SEC, Pac 12, A-10 AAC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, MWC, WCC.
Take away the automatic qualifier bid totals might look like
Big 12 6 (unless WV wins the Tourney then 8)
Big 10 6
SEC 2
A-10 5
PAC 12 5
MWC 1
ACC 5
AAC 4
Big E. 3
WCC 1
Thats 36 there.. So 2 are going to lose bids. Don't think Iowa sits at number 37 or 38 out of the at large teams.. Probably in the 25-30 range of at large bids.
IF say San Francisco wins the WCC that becomes a 3 bid league. If Boise State wins the MWC that becomes a 3 bid league. If Missouri wins the SEC might become a 4 bid league.
But even then Iowa still gets in.
The fact the MWC is down this year really helps.
They no longer put as much emphasis on the last 10 games, they are no longer more important than the first 10. (Had it been the old way Iowa would have been sweating).
At the end of the day beating OSU on the road, Michigan at home should be enough to put Iowa over the top. Regardless what happens in the Big Ten tourney.
I think there are like 36 at large bids now.
Multi bid leagues, are SEC, Pac 12, A-10 AAC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, MWC, WCC.
Take away the automatic qualifier bid totals might look like
Big 12 6 (unless WV wins the Tourney then 8)
Big 10 6
SEC 2
A-10 5
PAC 12 5
MWC 1
ACC 5
AAC 4
Big E. 3
WCC 1
Thats 36 there.. So 2 are going to lose bids. Don't think Iowa sits at number 37 or 38 out of the at large teams.. Probably in the 25-30 range of at large bids.
IF say San Francisco wins the WCC that becomes a 3 bid league. If Boise State wins the MWC that becomes a 3 bid league. If Missouri wins the SEC might become a 4 bid league.
But even then Iowa still gets in.
The fact the MWC is down this year really helps.
I hope we don't come up a rooster short.
Lunardi talks about "bubble battles" for this weeks conference tourneys. Iowa's name doesn't come up once.
Last Four Byes:
Pitt, Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier
Last Four In:
Tennessee, St. Joe's, Dayton, Arkansas
First Four Out:
Cal, Minnesota, St. John's, Providence
Even though Iowa has been awful to close out the season, they can lose by 20+ to NW and will be in.
Lunardi Insider
Last Four Byes:
Pitt, Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier
Last Four In:
Tennessee, St. Joe's, Dayton, Arkansas
First Four Out:
Cal, Minnesota, St. John's, Providence
Even though Iowa has been awful to close out the season, they can lose by 20+ to NW and will be in.
Lunardi Insider
HawkMD2007
Well-Known Member
FIFY
Wassabbe
Well-Known Member
Probably, but it wouldn't surprise me if we fell to the play in game. Losing to Northwestern would be a huge blow to the already falling RPI.
Doubtful. I wouldn't see iowa dropping below 52 or 53. I still think iowa would be in but man, that would be closer than anyone wants it to be.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I guess I really still don't quite get why Iowa is considered a stone cold lock with an RPI of 49 but Nebraska is a bubble team at 41.. I know that RPI isn't supposed to be everything as far as the committee goes, but man, from what I've seen over the years, it sure seems like it's a huge part of the equation.
Maybe Iowa had better take no chances and kick some butt in the Big 10 tournament. With a first round loss to NW.. I don't care what Joe Lunardi says, I'll be sweating it on Sunday. Assuming a loss to NW and an RPI in the 50's with just ONE good non-conference win, and just 2 wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25... That's bubble material if I ever saw it.
