Probability of Making Tourney

OKHawk said:
You can't lose to one of the worst teams in the BIG...at home...on senior night...to finish 9-9 in conference play and think we are a lock. The way this team is playing do you really think they have much of a chance in the BTT? This team is mentally not there...they think they can play one half of basketball and that's good enough. They have done nothing which tells me they will win a first round BTT game. At 20-12 it's really hard to say they are a LOCK. The high hopes we all had for a magical season have vanished into thin air.
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So, you are predicting this would be the first team since....(when, exactly has this ever happened) that dropped from a projected 6 seed on March 6, to "out" after losing their last game, and losing their first game in the conf tournament.

Honesty, didn't Minny, or something like that, "back in" last year in worse shape than us? Unless someone does some research and provides some concrete evidence, this type of thought is nothing more than emotional exhaust. Kidna justified? But inaccurate.
 
Iowa is in the tournament. I just think there is a lot of emotional flatulence going on with these losses. See through the fog of despair and you'll find reality.
 
HawkeyeHypnosis said:
A magical regular season maybe. But this team still has a chance to make something of it whether you want to believe they are in or not.
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Nope, don't believe it...they've done nothing to make anybody think they could beat the Lady Hawks at this point. To be honest, I think we have a better shot in the Men's BTT if we marched our ladies out there to compete. At least we know we're going to get effort, toughness, leadership and a well-coached team that has conquered the fundamentals of the game.
 
metahawk said:
So, you are predicting this would be the first team since....(when, exactly has this ever happened) that dropped from a projected 6 seed on March 6, to "out" after losing their last game, and losing their first game in the conf tournament.

Honesty, didn't Minny, or something like that, "back in" last year in worse shape than us? Unless someone does some research and provides some concrete evidence, this type of thought is nothing more than emotional exhaust. Kidna justified? But inaccurate.
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Everyone loves statistics until they become one. There is a first time for everything.
 
OKHawk said:
Nope, don't believe it...they've done nothing to make anybody think they could beat the Lady Hawks at this point. To be honest, I think we have a better shot in the Men's BTT if we marched our ladies out there to compete. At least we know we're going to get effort, toughness, leadership and a well-coached team that has conquered the fundamentals of the game.
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And we have seen Iowa play with those things. They will be playing for a lot more in these tournaments. I guarantee you that these guys will be doing everything they can between now and game 1.
 
JonDMiller said:
Iowa is in the tournament. I just think there is a lot of emotional flatulence going on with these losses. See through the fog of despair and you'll find reality.
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Hey Jon, awesome site, wanted to get your honest opinion: 1) You think Iowa is in--where do you have them seed wise (with one win in BTT and with a loss in first round of BTT). 2) Despite your belief that they are in, do you think they deserve a spot in this year's dance and why. Thanks and how are you liking OK? You have your first pair of Okie boots yet? Just got mine last year...super comfortable!
 
sdjones said:
I agree, strip away emotion and you see things clearly.
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Not sure I agree. I think those who are being critical are those that are seeing clearly. This isn't a good team right now, not sure how you are seeing something different. The evidence is right in front of our faces and some are acknowledging it and some are choosing to pretend like all is okay and somehow playing in a tournament will cure all that ails us. Tournaments don't magically improve fundamentals. They don't magically cure line up issues. They don't cure a vacuum of team leadership. Why can't people be critical and not take so much flack for it or get accused of being trolls or told that they aren't 'true' fans. I think its the 'true' fans that call b.s. when they smell it instead of telling everyone they smell roses. With that, OKHawk...out.
 
OKHawk said:
Not sure I agree. I think those who are being critical are those that are seeing clearly. This isn't a good team right now, not sure how you are seeing something different. The evidence is right in front of our faces and some are acknowledging it and some are choosing to pretend like all is okay and somehow playing in a tournament will cure all that ails us. Tournaments don't magically improve fundamentals. They don't magically cure line up issues. They don't cure a vacuum of team leadership. Why can't people be critical and not take so much flack for it or get accused of being trolls or told that they aren't 'true' fans. I think its the 'true' fans that call b.s. when they smell it instead of telling everyone they smell roses. With that, OKHawk...out.
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Agree. NOT a lock either.
 
OKHawk said:
Not sure I agree. I think those who are being critical are those that are seeing clearly. This isn't a good team right now, not sure how you are seeing something different. The evidence is right in front of our faces and some are acknowledging it and some are choosing to pretend like all is okay and somehow playing in a tournament will cure all that ails us. Tournaments don't magically improve fundamentals. They don't magically cure line up issues. They don't cure a vacuum of team leadership. Why can't people be critical and not take so much flack for it or get accused of being trolls or told that they aren't 'true' fans. I think its the 'true' fans that call b.s. when they smell it instead of telling everyone they smell roses. With that, OKHawk...out.
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You do agree. I said strip away emotions and you can see things clearly and that is what you have done.
 
OKHawk said:
Not sure I agree. I think those who are being critical are those that are seeing clearly. This isn't a good team right now, not sure how you are seeing something different. The evidence is right in front of our faces and some are acknowledging it and some are choosing to pretend like all is okay and somehow playing in a tournament will cure all that ails us. Tournaments don't magically improve fundamentals. They don't magically cure line up issues. They don't cure a vacuum of team leadership. Why can't people be critical and not take so much flack for it or get accused of being trolls or told that they aren't 'true' fans. I think its the 'true' fans that call b.s. when they smell it instead of telling everyone they smell roses. With that, OKHawk...out.
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No one disagrees Iowa is reeling and not currently playing like a tourney team. They did enough earlier in the year. They are in per every scenario I have seen....anywhere.

It does also matter that the only "bad" loss was...well...tonight.
 
HawkeyeWalker said:
No one disagrees Iowa is reeling and not currently playing like a tourney team. They did enough earlier in the year. They are in per every scenario I have seen....anywhere.

It does also matter that the only "bad" loss was...well...tonight.
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I just don't foresee the graphic on the NCAA Selection Show showing Good Non-Con wins and having ND and Xavier listed.
 
JonDMiller said:
Iowa is in the tournament. I just think there is a lot of emotional flatulence going on with these losses. See through the fog of despair and you'll find reality.
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I tend to agree. What worries me is before today our NCAA RPI was 40. I'm sure it's around 46-48 now. If we lose 1st round of the tournament we will probably be below 50. That's the bubble.

Last year Kentucky had an RPI of 55 and didn't make it
 
The probability that Iowa makes the tournament is probably about 99.7%. The probability that Iowa wins a game in the tournament, on the other hand...not looking good at the moment.
 
OKHawk said:
Hey Jon, awesome site, wanted to get your honest opinion: 1) You think Iowa is in--where do you have them seed wise (with one win in BTT and with a loss in first round of BTT). 2) Despite your belief that they are in, do you think they deserve a spot in this year's dance and why. Thanks and how are you liking OK? You have your first pair of Okie boots yet? Just got mine last year...super comfortable!
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8 to 10...as for deserve, the bubble is weak sauce. They are far more deserving that some teams who will get in.
 
clicheusername3 said:
I just don't foresee the graphic on the NCAA Selection Show showing Good Non-Con wins and having ND and Xavier listed.
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So they didn't do enough earlier in the year? So they aren't getting in then? If they get in it certainly isn't because of what they did in the last 6 games, is it? Which means....its what they did earlier in the year. You see the logic there?
 
JonDMiller said:
8 to 10...as for deserve, the bubble is weak sauce. They are far more deserving that some teams who will get in.
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This. For perspective, based on the full body of work, Iowa still deserves to be ahead of Nebraska and outside of an Iowa BTT first round loss OR Nebraska winning vs Wisky AND making a run to the BTT title game they will stay ahead of Nebraska.
 
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