Preview, Prediction: Michigan State 2024

This one feels like a trap to me, legacy B1G game on the road at night and a home team that's reeling.

A cornered animal is always dangerous. Hope I'm wrong and we see a repeat of last week.
 
As we know from Kinnick, Saturday night games can be a nightmare for the visitor. Spartan Stadium isn't Kinnick, but it's not Ryan Field (RIP) or Ross-Ade. I think Iowa can run the ball against this team.
 
Rob's prediction is a bit too much for my comfort level, but I am not far off. With Vegas having us as a 5.5 favorite on the road really means that Vegas thinks Iowa is a TD better team than Sparty overall. That seems right. And, running games and solid defense tend to travel. See the Minny game.

Iowa 24
Sparty 16
 
I don't feel awesome about it.

MSU gets shit on a lot but their losses are to the best 2 teams in the country IMO, and a close one to a 4-2 Boston College squad.

If Iowa can win the turnover margin and get KJ 175+ yds I think they're good. If not, watch out.
 
I think Sparty is solid this year. Not a good MSU team, but competent. And that can be dangerous.
I don't feel great about this game.
But, I didn't feel great about MN, and even worse about Wahrshington (had to say it like a proper St. Louisan).

I hope it's good. I'll be in Iowa City for fraternity dad's weekend. It's more fun when they win.

My bold, and always wrong prediction.
MSU 27
Iowa 17
Yet somehow McNamara has what seems like a breakout game. Throws for 348 yards.
 
Iowa will wear down MSU after a close first half. MSU will have a lot of long drives but will have trouble finishing them off

Iowa 20, MSU 13.
 
We should win this one. We seem to be getting better. I hope I am right on both.

Went to the Illinois Purdue game last week. Won by Illinois in overtime when Purdue went for two and failed. So the coach lost the game after all that effort and a great comeback. They could have kicked the extra point and played another series. As an AD I would not forget that gaff.
 
Hawks are improving, and we have the loss to ISU...when we lose to them we almost always finish very strong. I like where the offense is heading, I look for a couple deep passes that go for big plays. Defense does what it does and gets us a couple pics. I also look for a big day from Kaleb...
Iowa--31
MSU--10
 
Will C said:
We should win this one. We seem to be getting better. I hope I am right on both.

Went to the Illinois Purdue game last week. Won by Illinois in overtime when Purdue went for two and failed. So the coach lost the game after all that effort and a great comeback. They could have kicked the extra point and played another series. As an AD I would not forget that gaff.
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That's a good strategy if you think you are the better team, and if you are not worn out and if you are playing at home. But if you are the underdog, who has nothing left in the gas tank after an amazing comeback, and playing on the road, then that's different.

You might as well take your 50/50 chance to win the game right now. You probably have less than a 50/50 chance anyway if you extend the game. What's the point in risking the health of your players any further?
 
guffus said:
That's a good strategy if you think you are the better team, and if you are not worn out and if you are playing at home. But if you are the underdog, who has nothing left in the gas tank after an amazing comeback, and playing on the road, then that's different.

You might as well take your 50/50 chance to win the game right now. You probably have less than a 50/50 chance anyway if you extend the game. What's the point in risking the health of your players any further?
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What you say may be true but try to sell it if someone who controls your job agrees with me.
 
Iowa 24
MSU 9

MSU will turn the ball over at least twice leading to short fields. Like the Washington game, total yardage wise, MSU will outgain them. I think it is a repeat of last week.
 
guffus said:
That's a good strategy if you think you are the better team, and if you are not worn out and if you are playing at home. But if you are the underdog, who has nothing left in the gas tank after an amazing comeback, and playing on the road, then that's different.

You might as well take your 50/50 chance to win the game right now. You probably have less than a 50/50 chance anyway if you extend the game. What's the point in risking the health of your players any further?
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This was not a gaffe and I applaud his balls. Look, the metrics actually support this. The success rate for 2 point conversations is just under 50%, but there is also a small chance that you miss the PAT. So, you are rolling the dice. More importantly, the rules say that you flip order for the second possession so that puts you at the disadvantage statistically because you don't know what you need and the other side will. If you turn the ball over, for instance, the other side can kick a field goal and win. So, all and all, it is probably the better move to just go for it. Where I land is that if I have a really good 2-point play that I think will work, I go for it right then and there and try to win the game. Even if you don't make it, don't fault a coach for playing to win as opposed to playing not to lose (which I seem to recall a lot of folks on this Board bitching about concerning Iowa all the time).
 
NorthKCHawk said:
This was not a gaffe and I applaud his balls. Look, the metrics actually support this. The success rate for 2 point conversations is just under 50%, but there is also a small chance that you miss the PAT. So, you are rolling the dice. More importantly, the rules say that you flip order for the second possession so that puts you at the disadvantage statistically because you don't know what you need and the other side will. If you turn the ball over, for instance, the other side can kick a field goal and win. So, all and all, it is probably the better move to just go for it. Where I land is that if I have a really good 2-point play that I think will work, I go for it right then and there and try to win the game. Even if you don't make it, don't fault a coach for playing to win as opposed to playing not to lose (which I seem to recall a lot of folks on this Board bitching about concerning Iowa all the time).
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Always live to play on. First OT, take the point and go to OT 2.
Yes, possible scoring need "disadvantage" but also chance for other team to f-up.
Plus, OT 2 forces BOTH to go for 2 ... Again, other team may not have conversion but if you have that "good 2-point play" advantage in OT 1, it will still be there in OT 2.
 
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