Please come off the ledge...

[1977Hawkeye]

I am actually not on the ledge at all. Going into this season I thought it would take a miracle to even MAKE THE NCAA's. That is still firmly in sight and a possibility, even is we do go 1-3 or 0-4 in this stretch. We aren't a great team, we aren't a team that can make a run in the B1G tournament or NCAA tournament. I just want to make the NCAA and see if we can win 1 game there.

Ditto. I assumed they would bounce back from last year and be a little more like Fran's be past teams.. That's about what they are IMO. So guess i was a bit more optimistic than you. Could very well end up on that same 7/10 line again.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I'm still not on the ledge. Just more confirmation that this team is basically what I suspected.

Decent team that may make the dance, but doesn't play good enough team D consistently enough to win games on the road against roughly equal opponents like Minnesota, or go past the first weekend of the tournament etc.

One thing to keep in mind about the MN game. MN had 5 days to prepare and it was a home game. Iowa had 3 days to prepare and it was a road game...coming off a physically and emotionally draining loss to MSU.

But I'm not walking around with blinders on either. I saw 2017 Tyler Cook yesterday. The Tyler Cook of 2018 was nowhere to be seen. If he sits the last 3 minutes of the game we might have actually pulled out an improbable win. I'm hoping yesterday's (selfish) Tyler Cook was a 1 game thing.

 

[Hawknigh]

Fans are going to spend a lot of time on the ledge this week and next!

 

[WindsorHawk]

Fans are going to spend a lot of time on the ledge this week and next!

Not after we beat Michigan. We are playing at home with 5 days rest (see MN yesterday). Michigan is playing on the road with 3 days rest (see IA yesterday). It makes a difference.

 

[deanvogs]

Not after we beat Michigan. We are playing at home with 5 days rest (see MN yesterday). Michigan is playing on the road with 3 days rest (see IA yesterday). It makes a difference.

I hope you are right about that. While I am not on the ledge over a loss at Minny (we always lose there), I don't really think we are gonna beat Michigan.

 

[JG10Hawk]

No clue on how they come up with their percentages but here's teamrankings' projections for the remaining games.

 

[JG10Hawk]

Here's Massey's projections.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I hope you are right about that. While I am not on the ledge over a loss at Minny (we always lose there), I don't really think we are gonna beat Michigan.

I definitely think Michigan is better than us. I think we are better than Minnesota. Home game, schedule, etc. are variables outside of anyone's control. Michigan will certainly be favored but it's one I think Iowa can steal. And Michigan's style of play is not Michigan State's style of play. A lot of our guys don't like the physical style.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Here's Massey's projections.

View attachment 4915

So the projections show 10-10. But Iowa has at least a 1 in 3 chance against everyone else but Wisconsin...so 11 or 12 wins doesn't require some miraculous results.

 

[JG10Hawk]

So the projections show 10-10. But Iowa has at least a 1 in 3 chance against everyone else but Wisconsin...so 11 or 12 wins doesn't require some miraculous results.

Pretty much. That's why I've been saying I expect 10-10 but am hoping for and would not be surprised with better.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Pretty much. That's why I've been saying I expect 10-10 but am hoping for and would not be surprised with better.

Makes sense. I'm still not budging on the 12-8 prediction I made after the 0-3 start.

 

[Motigerhawk]

I took a little heat for my last post in this thread. I will expand.

We have no PG, as we all know. We have a bunch of pretty one dimensional players that all do one thing really well, but thats it. So, my saying that we would be a great mid major, this was my reasoning. You can get away with one dimensional players.

Now, we have some talent; Garza, Weiskamp, Cook, and Moss starting with a stud PG that is a play maker and a defender would be a really tough lineup for anybody to handle.

Bohannon and Mccaffery and Baer off the bench and you have some guys that are role players that would fill their roles extremely well.

We are one player away with this bunch is my thought process. Especially if he was a tough hard nosed leader.

 

[thedukeofearl]

One thing to keep in mind about the MN game. MN had 5 days to prepare and it was a home game. Iowa had 3 days to prepare and it was a road game...coming off a physically and emotionally draining loss to MSU.

But I'm not walking around with blinders on either. I saw 2017 Tyler Cook yesterday. The Tyler Cook of 2018 was nowhere to be seen. If he sits the last 3 minutes of the game we might have actually pulled out an improbable win. I'm hoping yesterday's (selfish) Tyler Cook was a 1 game thing.

The past two games, Michigan State and Minnesota reversed our successful free throw advantage drastically. We needed the attempts and the added advantage of having the opponents' starters in foul trouble as the game clock wound down.....

I am not as critical of Tyler as most are. He has made many free throws at closing time the entire season. One of our strategies has been to have Tyler drive to the basket, get fouled and make the free throws which he usually does. He is shooting at close to 70% from the free throw line.....

Tyler should consider staying for his senior year. It would benefit both him and the Hawks drastically.....

The refs gave all the breaks to Michigan State and Minnesota, letting them play with abandon and calling close touch fouls on the Hawks. That didn't help. It is not the first time we were shafted by the zebras at Minnesota.....

The Gophers were making incredible shots the entire game. There was no stopping some of the shots especially with the clock running down, making a running jump shot from the baseline, behind the basket with a second on the time clock, and Murphy making a three that went through the basket with zero seconds on the halftime clock. Things like that happened throughout the game time experience which was very difficult to digest.....

The season is far from over, and I believe that we will escape with a regular season 10-10 record in the BIG. I also anticipate losing the next two games, against top ten Michigan and at Indiana.....

We must hold home court against Maryland and Indiana. Not going to be easy tasks. The Big is murder's row this season.....

I don't see the game at Rutgers as a winning proposition either. We must win two of the final three games on the road, at Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska.....

Everything remains to be seen. Once again, merely idle speculation, absolutely nothing else.....

 

[ThunderHawk]

Being unable to beat inferior teams on their home courts is an indication of mental weakness.

There is no ledge.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Here's another way of looking at the first half of our conference season compared to the last half. Ranked toughest to easiest per Kenpom today for home and away games...first 10 conference games vs. remaining 10 conference games.

@MSU - @ WI...easier
@PUR - @ NE...easier
@MN - @ OSU...tougher
@NW - @ IN...tougher
@PSU- @ RUT...easier

MSU - MI...easier
WI - MD...easier
NE - IN...easier
OSU - NW...easier
IL - RUT...easier

 

[deanvogs]

Being unable to beat inferior teams on their home courts is an indication of mental weakness.

There is no ledge.

Not in basketball. Better teams lose on the road all the time.

 

[Robowe]

Not after we beat Michigan. We are playing at home with 5 days rest (see MN yesterday). Michigan is playing on the road with 3 days rest (see IA yesterday). It makes a difference.

Iowa has 4 days rest (Mon-Thurs) while Michigan will have 2 days rest (play on Tuesday) for Friday's game. Michigan only had 2 days rest last week between beating Minnesota by 2 at home (on a buzzer beater) and then playing at Indiana. They lead the Hoosiers 17-0 out of the gate.

Iowa had 3 days rest (played Sun) last week and didn't travel while MSU had 2 days rest (played Mon) and had to travel before the matchup last Thursday at Carver. It didn't matter.

It matters who plays better. Period.

 

[earlkoppelman]

Pretty much. That's why I've been saying I expect 10-10 but am hoping for and would not be surprised with better.

Am not impressed with HOW we lost. Dance still possible. Go Hawks..

 

[Xerxes]

I took a little heat for my last post in this thread. I will expand.

We have no PG, as we all know. We have a bunch of pretty one dimensional players that all do one thing really well, but thats it. So, my saying that we would be a great mid major, this was my reasoning. You can get away with one dimensional players.

Now, we have some talent; Garza, Weiskamp, Cook, and Moss starting with a stud PG that is a play maker and a defender would be a really tough lineup for anybody to handle.

Bohannon and Mccaffery and Baer off the bench and you have some guys that are role players that would fill their roles extremely well.

We are one player away with this bunch is my thought process. Especially if he was a tough hard nosed leader.

Yep. An Aaron Craft type of player would evelate this team big time. Tough, unselfish, facilitator. Everyone would feed off his energy on the defensive end and offensively he wouldn’t take shots away from the 4 you mentioned

 

[ThunderHawk]

Not in basketball. Better teams lose on the road all the time.

It's because they're mentally weak.

I used to love playing on the road just to shut the bastards up