JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
This is my favorite preseason college football magazine and to me, it gets better each year. Phil Steele finds more and more ways to cut up statistics and tendencies to where a stat geek like me gets a football high the moment I see the cover sitting there on the newsstand for the first time.
However, football is not a game played in a spread sheet and algorithms don't win you the battle at the line of scrimmage...that's a good thing, because Phil Steele is as 'down' on the Iowa program as I can remember him being since early in the Ferentz era...and he's typically been 'bullish' on Iowa.
In 2008, when the magazine consensus averages were put together, the Hawks were picked to finish 8th in the Big Ten, but Steele had them 5th. Iowa finished in a tie for 4th.
-In 2007, he picked Iowa for a 5th place finish in the Big Ten and that's right where they finished.
-Everybody missed the boat in 2006 as Iowa had a consensus expectation of 3rd which is where Steele picked Iowa.
-In 2005, when the LA Times picked Iowa to play for the national title and the Hawks had a preseason Top 10 ranking, Steele picked Iowa to finish 4th in the league; they finished in a four way tie for 3rd.
-He picked Iowa higher than anyone in 2001, to finish 7th.
Steele's biggest misses on Iowa, since Ferentz turned things around, were in 2004 where he tabbed them 6th and they won the Big Ten, and in 2003 when he picked Iowa 8th and they were a 10-win team...he also tabbed them for 7th in 2002 and the Hawks ran the table and won the Big Ten...but nobody saw that season coming.
Even when Steele has gotten Iowa's season wrong, he's usually been more optimistic than most publications.
This year, Steele picks Iowa to finish tied for 3rd in the Legends Division and ranks Iowa 42nd in his ranking of every FBS team...he has seven other Big Ten teams, including Michigan and Illinois, ranked ahead of Iowa.
The biggest head scratcher from Steele is where he ranks the best units in the nation...in his list of his Top 41 offensive lines (not sure why he settled on that number), Iowa is nowhere to be seen...He has Wisconsin 7th and Ohio State 8th in this list, which is in line with their Athlon unit ranking...Athlon had Iowa's offensive line among its Top Ten in the nation...Steele didn't put the Hawkeye hogmollies in his Top 41.
The only 'unit' ranking Iowa received were its linebackers at #32.
Many of Steele's longtime quirky stat models that he believes are harbingers of success or lack there of paint a dark picture for Iowa...
His 'Turnovers Equals Turnaround' piece in the back of the magazine, one of my favorites, lists teams who had a good to great positive turnover ratio the year before...Iowa was one of the best at +13 in 2011...Steele points out that statistics favor those teams having fewer wins in 2012 as it's unlikely that teams will have back to back years where they are that good in the turnover margin department.
In this blog, Steele has calculated the data of percentage of yards returning for each team...which teams return the most yards from the passing, rushing and receiving personnel. Iowa ranks dead last out of all 120 FBS teams.
Steele picks Iowa to play against Kansas State in the Meineke Car Care Bowl (yes, this is the title sponsor of what used to be known as the Texas Bowl) on December 31st....
I will admit that my preseason predictions may tend to be on the optimistic side, due to how I am wired. However, I take them seriously even admitting the possibility for home town bias. I missed wide of the mark last year with my first ever (yeah Clone fans, first ever) 12-0 prediction...then again Skip Bayless and other national talking heads picked Iowa as their chic national title game participant last summer where most everyone tabbed them for their second straight BCS bid.
I think we tend to be more optimistic about the teams we know intimately, because we are acutely aware of their strengths and we sometimes minimize their weaknesses, and then we focus more on the weaknesses in other teams. That is one way to define bias, and I freely admit I may be guilty of that from time to time.
That being said, I see one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten and a quarterback that has faced the brightest lights the sport has to offer, a road game at Ohio State in his first collegiate start and as a redshirt freshman, and he didn't puke all over his Nike's. I see one of the best receivers in the Big Ten and a sleeper in Keenan Davis on the opposite side plus some unknown talent. I see a possible star in the making in tight end CJ Fiedorwicz, however it might take another year for him to emerge. I see a very talented running back in Marcus Coker. I also see a lot of holes on defense and the loss of an excellent punter, so I can appreciate the skepticism.
But Steele predictions Iowa will average just 24.3 points per game and allow 23 points per game.
Iowa's 2005 defense replaced all four defensive linemen and started two sophomores at end (Iwebema and Mattison) and two undersized freshmen at tackle (King and Kroul) and that defense allowed 20.0/ppg against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. In 2006, Iowa allowed 20.7/ppg, the 'worst' such total since 2000. Heck, in 2000 the Hawks allowed 27.5/ppg in 2000...it's hard for me to fathom the 2011 Iowa defense allowing 23 points per game. I also think this offense is capable of pushing the 30/ppg barrier. Why?
Steele says Iowa plays the 70th 'toughest' schedule in the nation, the second 'easiest' schedule of any Big Ten team (Wisconsin is at 71).
Steele predicts Iowa to average 190 passing yards per game and 360 total yards per game. I'll wager right now the Hawks blow past both of those averages in each department; Iowa averaged 190.1 passing yards per game in the disappointing 2007 campaign.
I still love the magazine and will always buy it and I certainly won't rip Steele or anyone for that matter who views the impending 2011 Iowa football season with a great deal of skepticism. Just because they have 'overcome' before doesn't mean they will this year, but I think there is more talent on this team than national pundits are giving them credit for.
Then again, as Steele points out, Iowa returns the fewest starters in the league and has the fewest returning lettermen in the league...something has to give.
However, football is not a game played in a spread sheet and algorithms don't win you the battle at the line of scrimmage...that's a good thing, because Phil Steele is as 'down' on the Iowa program as I can remember him being since early in the Ferentz era...and he's typically been 'bullish' on Iowa.
In 2008, when the magazine consensus averages were put together, the Hawks were picked to finish 8th in the Big Ten, but Steele had them 5th. Iowa finished in a tie for 4th.
-In 2007, he picked Iowa for a 5th place finish in the Big Ten and that's right where they finished.
-Everybody missed the boat in 2006 as Iowa had a consensus expectation of 3rd which is where Steele picked Iowa.
-In 2005, when the LA Times picked Iowa to play for the national title and the Hawks had a preseason Top 10 ranking, Steele picked Iowa to finish 4th in the league; they finished in a four way tie for 3rd.
-He picked Iowa higher than anyone in 2001, to finish 7th.
Steele's biggest misses on Iowa, since Ferentz turned things around, were in 2004 where he tabbed them 6th and they won the Big Ten, and in 2003 when he picked Iowa 8th and they were a 10-win team...he also tabbed them for 7th in 2002 and the Hawks ran the table and won the Big Ten...but nobody saw that season coming.
Even when Steele has gotten Iowa's season wrong, he's usually been more optimistic than most publications.
This year, Steele picks Iowa to finish tied for 3rd in the Legends Division and ranks Iowa 42nd in his ranking of every FBS team...he has seven other Big Ten teams, including Michigan and Illinois, ranked ahead of Iowa.
The biggest head scratcher from Steele is where he ranks the best units in the nation...in his list of his Top 41 offensive lines (not sure why he settled on that number), Iowa is nowhere to be seen...He has Wisconsin 7th and Ohio State 8th in this list, which is in line with their Athlon unit ranking...Athlon had Iowa's offensive line among its Top Ten in the nation...Steele didn't put the Hawkeye hogmollies in his Top 41.
The only 'unit' ranking Iowa received were its linebackers at #32.
Many of Steele's longtime quirky stat models that he believes are harbingers of success or lack there of paint a dark picture for Iowa...
His 'Turnovers Equals Turnaround' piece in the back of the magazine, one of my favorites, lists teams who had a good to great positive turnover ratio the year before...Iowa was one of the best at +13 in 2011...Steele points out that statistics favor those teams having fewer wins in 2012 as it's unlikely that teams will have back to back years where they are that good in the turnover margin department.
In this blog, Steele has calculated the data of percentage of yards returning for each team...which teams return the most yards from the passing, rushing and receiving personnel. Iowa ranks dead last out of all 120 FBS teams.
Steele picks Iowa to play against Kansas State in the Meineke Car Care Bowl (yes, this is the title sponsor of what used to be known as the Texas Bowl) on December 31st....
I will admit that my preseason predictions may tend to be on the optimistic side, due to how I am wired. However, I take them seriously even admitting the possibility for home town bias. I missed wide of the mark last year with my first ever (yeah Clone fans, first ever) 12-0 prediction...then again Skip Bayless and other national talking heads picked Iowa as their chic national title game participant last summer where most everyone tabbed them for their second straight BCS bid.
I think we tend to be more optimistic about the teams we know intimately, because we are acutely aware of their strengths and we sometimes minimize their weaknesses, and then we focus more on the weaknesses in other teams. That is one way to define bias, and I freely admit I may be guilty of that from time to time.
That being said, I see one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten and a quarterback that has faced the brightest lights the sport has to offer, a road game at Ohio State in his first collegiate start and as a redshirt freshman, and he didn't puke all over his Nike's. I see one of the best receivers in the Big Ten and a sleeper in Keenan Davis on the opposite side plus some unknown talent. I see a possible star in the making in tight end CJ Fiedorwicz, however it might take another year for him to emerge. I see a very talented running back in Marcus Coker. I also see a lot of holes on defense and the loss of an excellent punter, so I can appreciate the skepticism.
But Steele predictions Iowa will average just 24.3 points per game and allow 23 points per game.
Iowa's 2005 defense replaced all four defensive linemen and started two sophomores at end (Iwebema and Mattison) and two undersized freshmen at tackle (King and Kroul) and that defense allowed 20.0/ppg against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. In 2006, Iowa allowed 20.7/ppg, the 'worst' such total since 2000. Heck, in 2000 the Hawks allowed 27.5/ppg in 2000...it's hard for me to fathom the 2011 Iowa defense allowing 23 points per game. I also think this offense is capable of pushing the 30/ppg barrier. Why?
Steele says Iowa plays the 70th 'toughest' schedule in the nation, the second 'easiest' schedule of any Big Ten team (Wisconsin is at 71).
Steele predicts Iowa to average 190 passing yards per game and 360 total yards per game. I'll wager right now the Hawks blow past both of those averages in each department; Iowa averaged 190.1 passing yards per game in the disappointing 2007 campaign.
I still love the magazine and will always buy it and I certainly won't rip Steele or anyone for that matter who views the impending 2011 Iowa football season with a great deal of skepticism. Just because they have 'overcome' before doesn't mean they will this year, but I think there is more talent on this team than national pundits are giving them credit for.
Then again, as Steele points out, Iowa returns the fewest starters in the league and has the fewest returning lettermen in the league...something has to give.
