Phil Steele Down on the Hawks

Lady Luck will have to be on our side to get to 8-4.

* New, primarily unproven QB on the battlefield

* Not deep, an injury or two away from real trouble at certain positions

* Questionable pass defense in a league that is throwing the ball more

* Unproven punter on a team that relies heavily on the field position game


In our favor......Ferentz's performance in the underdog role
 
The Hawks have a lot of questions.

How will they be at the point of attack on D?
Can they stay healthy?
Can Vandy learn how to handle the blitz?
How will the reworked D backfield fare?
Are any of the linemen who were not ready to step in when Gettis and Mac went down ready to go now?
 
I'd say Steele is about right on. With the fewest returners, breaking in a new QB and finishing 7-5 last year I think that is a fair prediction.

Finishing behind Mich st and Neb in the Legends is about as good as we could expect preseason.

With that said, I would rather play it out then settle for and 8-4 record right now.

My biggest concern this year is our lack of depth. We are usually pretty deep but I don't see that his year. A few injuries and we could be lucky to be 6-6.
 
"I think we tend to be more optimistic about the teams we know intimately, because we are acutely aware of their strengths and we sometimes minimize their weaknesses, and then we focus more on the weaknesses in other teams." ---- Mr. Jon Miller


Boy, isn't that the truth. We do need to keep it real at times.


1) Iowa does so much better with the target off their backs.
2) Ferentz teams most often then not are always in the game at least giving the team a chance. This is due to a solid defense & controlling the line of scrimmage resulting in a productive running game. The "D" will be the telling tale of the success for this years team.
3) This years team will have to score some points, I agree, 24 + points a game. It won't be a year where Iowa pulls out wins by scores of 13-7, 17-10 etc.
4) I think Vandeburg will be fine. He may start off slow but hopefully will be ready for the Big10 season. I have always said he has one of the better arms of any Iowa QB in my memory. He has an NFL frame & can zip the ball in which is very important. This is an opportunity that he has waited for an earned over the yrs & I think he will take advantage of it. A successful running game will definitely help him as it would any QB. I see most games over 190 yrds as well.
5) Iowa has had the luxury of having a very solid if not exceptional 3-4 yr punter changing field position & pinning teams within their 20. This could "potentially" be achilles heel for this yrs team's success. I hope not but one can't look past of how important changing field position with the punter is in college f-ball. This has been one of the major ingrediants in Ferentz's formula for success over the years. His formula is: Controlling the line of Scrimmage + Controlling the Clock (Running game) + Field Position = Wins
 
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It is all about the lines. If Iowa is not in the top 41 in offensive line,they will not be good. If Iowa's dline is not good...well,they will struggle to stop the run,which is a huge key in the Big Ten.
Now, I am confident the o-line will be one of the best in the league,so right away, he missed the boat on that.
The d-line is more of a question mark for me....I am hopeful,but not certain,they will be good.
If the o-line is solid, I think the offense will be fine. Vandy is unproven but has passed my eye-test. He has all the tools to be one of the best QBs in the league.
Coker is proven. So is McNutt. Davis has star potential. Herman is solid. CJ could be.

If Iowa goes 4-0 in the non-conference, I think they exceed 8-4. Clearly, Iowa has lost the ''intimidation'' factor in Kinnick since the installation of ''quick team turf'', which is why Steele has them losing two more games(Mich,MSU) at home. I agree that they are simply not as good since that turf went in,but still see them winning one of those games,and going 5-3 in the league...at worst. 6-2 is also possible with losses at PSU and Neb. Call me crazy but I like the hawks to go 9-3(5-3) or better.
 
The plain fact is, we dont know how deep we are. Some spots seem pretty thin, but RB did last year and out comes Coker. I to worry more about the D, we almost always have a pretty good D, some new talent may lite a fire. I fully expect them to miss a few plays here and there, just because there are so many new players on D, but would be shocked if they are not running a pretty good game come conf play.
Oh and for my prediction, ccg. Otherside Wiskey. Two pretty good teams with fairly light scheduals, I dont see why not. Mich St could throw a wrench in there, but I have a feeling, they go thru what we just went thru last year.
 
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Phil Steeles mag has been so good in recent years I'll give him a pass this year. This years effort was poor and showed some absolute foolishness. As covered here previously how you EVER have a Kirk Ferentz coached team out of your top 40 in offensive line, I will never know. That's just dumb and shows a lack of watching football (2 things I don't usually ascribe to Steele). I think it was Steele that had Pitt winning the Big East and going to a BCS game. I don't know how you look at what Pitt lost and what they have coming back, especially with coaching changes and think they're going to win a conference?

As far as the Hawks go. Honestly this team if you look at our schedule could legitimately lose 1-2 games and go to a BCS game. Our schedule is soft, Pitt is down, a bunch of our Big Ten opponents are down, Nebraska is overrated, Michigan State is underwhelming and despite how awesome they were last year we thrashed them. Honestly looking at the schedule there's 1 maybe 2 games that we should be under dogs in all season.

I think the hawks will lose 1 game and go to a BCS bowl. Don't call me a kool-aid drinker, i don't drink sugar, but i'll take Crystal lite drinker officially right now. We'll be better this year both in play and record.

JVB is the real-deal. The wide receiving core probably the best of the Ferentz era, 2-3 quality tight ends, and a dominant o-line.

PS. How someone can look at every single game Coker played in last year and objectively not think he = beast master status is beyond me. Coker, behind that line, JVB needs to be adequate for us to be very good on offense. Norm with us all year in some capacity = better defense. Comeon.
 
Having us ranked behind Illinois allowed me to disregard everything else he said about Iowa. Illinois won't even sniff the top 25. They will be lucky to make a bowl game. I can pretty much guarantee Illinois won't finish better than 5th in their division, let alone the Big 10 as a whole.

Having our linebackers (who are completely unproven) ranked, but not our offensive line (with 4 returning starters and 7 guys with good game experience) also allows me to disregard his opinions. I normally like Steele, but those particular predictions make no sense.
 
As for the turnover margin, last year's disappointing season had our best turnover margin in several years, while our best season in 2009 had our 2nd worst.

2010: +13
2009: +2
2008: +8
2007: +8
2006: -11 (!)
http://cfbstats.com/2010/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category12/sort02.html

Can somebody explain the above numbers via Steele's theory about turnover equals turnaround? Honest question. Is he saying that to improve our program, we have to do better than +13, but that would be tough so we won't improve (that much)?
 
JonDMiller said:
I will admit that my preseason predictions may tend to be on the optimistic side, due to how I am wired. However, I take them seriously even admitting the possibility for home town bias. I missed wide of the mark last year with my first ever (yeah Clone fans, first ever) 12-0 prediction...then again Skip Bayless and other national talking heads picked Iowa as their chic national title game participant last summer where most everyone tabbed them for their second straight BCS bid.

I think we tend to be more optimistic about the teams we know intimately, because we are acutely aware of their strengths and we sometimes minimize their weaknesses, and then we focus more on the weaknesses in other teams. That is one way to define bias, and I freely admit I may be guilty of that from time to time.
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Jon,

While we're both obviously homers, I really don't think that you were all that far off on the 12-0 prediction.

I don't even believe that the "problem" with your prediction dealt with minimizing our weaknesses as a homer fan. I think that a safer statement is to say that fans tend to base their "predictions" based on best-case or near best-case scenarios. Considering that margins that we were witnessing Iowa lose by and given how our injuries weren't very evenly dispersed .... it's pretty easy to say that Iowa was 1 or 2 fewer injuries away from having an 11-1 regular season. Heck, if our special teams play weren't so bad ... a facet of the game that nearly ALL fans underestimate ... then 12-0 really wouldn't have been out of the question.

After all, we're not talking about a Hawk team that got blown out or was truly outclassed in any game they participated in.

Not surprisingly, I respect spud's opinion (as well as my own) ... and both spud and I were of the opinion that we were just a healthy Tarp and Nielsen away from having a truly special '10 season. Alas, we didn't get to enjoy such a magical season ... however, it still beats the heck out of the '06 and '07 fiascos.
 
Well then I guess this year will answer the question... Is Iowa in a rebuilding year or are we really capable of reloading? Of course I think we are reloading and I think Iowa gets 8-9 wins this year.
 
I think the offense will be much better than last year. and i believe we will be much better on third down, i mean, cmon, what lb in the country is gonna be able to handle CJ Fed in the middle of the field on third and six. no way. If the linebackers can pas cover even 50 percent better tha n last year, which after an offseason of film and endless 7 on 7 i think they will, then i predict we go to Nebby the day after thanksgiving ( god i love turkey) for a ticket to Indy. That is all.
 
twinhawkfans said:
I think the offense will be much better than last year. and i believe we will be much better on third down, i mean, cmon, what lb in the country is gonna be able to handle CJ Fed in the middle of the field on third and six. no way. If the linebackers can pas cover even 50 percent better tha n last year, which after an offseason of film and endless 7 on 7 i think they will, then i predict we go to Nebby the day after thanksgiving ( god i love turkey) for a ticket to Indy. That is all.
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I wish this were true or comes to fruition this year, but, I'm not certain KF or KOK are ready to let him fly yet. At least until he learns the blocking schemes much better. Hopefully he makes huge strides this year & contributes a bunch.

I hope you are correct & he becomes a match-up nightmare for opposing teams. They need to find a way to utilize him this year as he could be the one player needed on O to really help with the burdon on James V.
 
twinhawkfans said:
I think the offense will be much better than last year. and i believe we will be much better on third down, i mean, cmon, what lb in the country is gonna be able to handle CJ Fed in the middle of the field on third and six. no way. If the linebackers can pas cover even 50 percent better tha n last year, which after an offseason of film and endless 7 on 7 i think they will, then i predict we go to Nebby the day after thanksgiving ( god i love turkey) for a ticket to Indy. That is all.
Click to expand...

The quartet of McNutt, Davis, Herman, and CJ Fed will be awfully tough for ANY back 7 to match up against. It's a pretty formidable combo of size, speed, and skill right there ....
 
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