PFF Player Grades: Petras 10/224 Eligible NCAA Quarterbacks this Season

JoeyLabasForPresident

Well-Known Member
Other B1G QBs:

3 Taulia Tagovailoa - Maryland (this despite a grade of 50 Friday night)
16 C.J. Stroud - Ohio State
28 Cade McNamara - Michigan
42 Aidan O'Connell - Purdue
46 Sean Clifford - Penn State
57 Adrian Martinez - Nebraska

68 Payton Thorne - Michigan State
110 Michael Penix Jr - Indiana
148 Tanner Morgan - Minnesota
169 Noah Vedral - Rutgers
186 Hunter Johnson - Northwestern
199 Artur Sitkowski - Illinois
214 Graham Mertz - Wisconsin


*Remaining QBs on schedule in BOLD
 
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BigD

Well-Known Member
Hoping the last two games are going to be the norm and the changing of the guard, tongue in cheek (right guard and left guard). Hoping the All American Center continues to rub off on the entire line not only for the remainder of this season but heading into next season.

Also hoping that Brian continues to move forward and keeps advancing the offense. The Ohio State game where we dismantled their defense was awesome, but then we climbed back into our offensive foxhole after that game. If Brian can keep the pedal to the metal from here on out then that will be a game changer for the program.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
Hoping the last two games are going to be the norm and the changing of the guard, tongue in cheek (right guard and left guard). Hoping the All American Center continues to rub off on the entire line not only for the remainder of this season but heading into next season.

Also hoping that Brian continues to move forward and keeps advancing the offense. The Ohio State game where we dismantled their defense was awesome, but then we climbed back into our offensive foxhole after that game. If Brian can keep the pedal to the metal from here on out then that will be a game changer for the program.

That Wisconsin game was our worst offensive performance under Ferentz. Wisconsin ran a base 3-4 and the line had no clue who the fourth rusher would be. Brian Ferentz had taken over as OC and the o line was in a precarious spot as he left to be OC. I believe they have worked out a lot of the difficulties with the 3-4, but the problems they had with it from 2017 through last year cannot be overstated (although a really good center who can make the reads makes a huge difference). Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin have given us fits with their 3-4 looks, but I think we have cracked the code. At least I hope like hell that we have.
 

GesterHawk

Well-Known Member
None of this can be true... Petras is losing us games and needs replaced, he's not the 10th best QB in the sport, heck he's not even in the top guy on our roster.... derp
While I agree that the fans need to lay off Spencer until he gives them a real reason to jump on him, #10 seems high. Top 20 maybe, but #10 feels like a stretch.
 

JoeyLabasForPresident

Well-Known Member
While I agree that the fans need to lay off Spencer until he gives them a real reason to jump on him, #10 seems high. Top 20 maybe, but #10 feels like a stretch.
You have to keep in mind, this is a play-by-play grading of Petras's performance, so it accounts for drops and the short fields our defense and special teams give the offense make Petras's stats look worse than they really are. It's a statistical model so there isn't really much to debate.
 

hawkinn3

Well-Known Member
We’re a damn good team and I see guys all over who are going to keep getting better. The offensive line is stepping up more each week especially.

Petras messes up some easy stuff but he doesn’t turn it over and the % is creeping up.

This could be the year boys.
 

GesterHawk

Well-Known Member
I think it might be time for some of the Spencer critics to realize/admit that he was throwing to the shorter routes and ignoring some of the deeper routes in the first 3 games by design. He wasn't missing the receivers he was throwing to on design - not saying that. But I think they were putting things on tape, setting tendencies, and working on routes Spencer needed work on.

If the difference in the attacking offense in the last 6 qtrs doesn't show that to them, then I am not sure we watched the same games.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
But I think they were putting things on tape, setting tendencies, and working on routes Spencer needed work on.

Of course they were. The drive where we went up 10-7 scared the shit out of Maryland because it broke every tendency they had on tape. Their defense was confused and looked like utter trash.

If our receivers play good and the line continues its incremental week to week improvements we will have a very damned good ball club and QB.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
While I agree that the fans need to lay off Spencer until he gives them a real reason to jump on him, #10 seems high. Top 20 maybe, but #10 feels like a stretch.
It's all analytics driven. They watch every single QB and grade every single play just like the coaches do.

This isn't a gut feel, "eh, I think I'll rank him...here" kind of thing.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
It's all analytics driven. They watch every single QB and grade every single play just like the coaches do.

This isn't a gut feel, "eh, I think I'll rank him...here" kind of thing.

I think people misunderstand just how shitty QB play is nationally. A lot of high school teams run these spreads now and a pretty mediocre guy on a great team can put up monster numbers. There are definitely outliers who are absolute freaks and those guys make QB play look elevated, but if you look at run of the mill guys and even five stars who turn into busts (like Clemson recruits Hunter Johnson and DJ) it is easy to see how mediocre QB play is.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
Petras is better than he gets credit for. In my opinion, 75-ish percent of a QB's effectiveness is not making huge mistakes. Petras doesn't make tons of big mistakes, which lets our defense and punter work their magic.

That said, Pro Football Focus is a sham. They claim their people analyze every player on every snap of every game all season long. There were on average 168 offensive and defensive snaps per game last year.

168 snaps * 22 players * 272 regular season games = 1,005,312 evaluations just in the regular season not counting special teams or post season. Nope.

TJ Lang has put some good commentary out there as far as how bullshit they are in grading, especially since other teammates affect players being graded, the graders do not have football credentials, and they also have no idea what anyone’s assignments are on any given play

Lang went on a radio show talking about it, and offered to fly in one of PFF’s OL graders (all expenses paid) to sit down with him and grade a player together for a full game. They declined. He then asked if he could do the same thing, grade separately, and then compare afterwards. They also declined, and this time said that all of their OL graders reside in India and due to the rigorous schedule during the season it wouldn’t work. Dead serious, they have people in some shithole in Delhi or wherever grading their games and they even admitted it publicly.

PFF is a lot like how a professional whisky taster will never do a blind test because they know they’d be outed by picking Cutty Sark over Lagavulin. I saw a “professional” spirits taster on YouTube who agreed to taste test vodkas get completely embarrassed by grading 4 vodkas all completely differently, even so far as talking about the different flavors and “notes,” only to find out later all four were poured from the exact same bottle of $6 Popov.

PFF’s secret method, “ancient Chinese secret” is kinda bullshit but their marketing department does a bang up job getting people to drink the Kool-Aid.

If you guys want a somewhat valid ranking system, use Football Outsiders. Their rankings are 100% based on stats with no subjective analysis applied whatsoever. They even share their methods.
 

Luftgekuehlt67

Well-Known Member
I think people misunderstand just how shitty QB play is nationally. A lot of high school teams run these spreads now and a pretty mediocre guy on a great team can put up monster numbers. There are definitely outliers who are absolute freaks and those guys make QB play look elevated, but if you look at run of the mill guys and even five stars who turn into busts (like Clemson recruits Hunter Johnson and DJ) it is easy to see how mediocre QB play is.
I totally agree people, in general, don't understand. Which is interesting to me for two reasons.

First, as a general football fan, there are 130 FBS program. Each one of them over the course of a season will trot out at least 1 starting QB. Every spring, you've got the NFL draft. A tiny percentage of those QBs will get drafted. Of that tiny pool, only a fraction will end up getting meaningful next level playing time. Of that fraction, an even smaller fraction will go on to prove to be *actually good* at playing the QB position. Yet, every college fanbase in America seems to expect their guy to be That Guy (or at least a close facsimile of That Guy).

Secondly, specifically as a Hawk fan that's been an enthusiastic student of The Parker Way, our entire defensive scheme is built on the premise that that overwhelming majority of college QBs just aren't that good. I believe the estimate Norm gave JDM once was 85%. Obviously, there is a lot of complexity and nuance, but at its core, our defensive philosophy is "sit back and wait for the QB to fuck up". And, the overwhelming majority of the time, it works.
 

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