Petras

[guffus]

It's fairly obvious to me that Petras will never be a 60% passer. It also obvious he is never going to run through a couple tackles to pick up a first down.

Petras's inaccuracy and inability to run is always going to limit Iowa's ability to pick up first downs and keep drives moving.

I just don't see it. Every time Petras misses a WR on a throw or every time he slides 3 yds before he needs to on a QB run, I am like, why is he the starting QB? Are you seriously telling me there is nobody better?

 

[1980HAWKFAN]

We won and at the end of the day, nobody will care how well Petras played except coaches and him. If we are going to have a chance against Michigan we will need the offense to move the ball. Petras will have to play well or we are in trouble. The Hawk defense is solid, but they can't be on the field constantly because we are 3 an out series after series. I predict pain and lots of it. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[CP87]

11/17 is probably the best % he's ever had so sure give him that. But yeah besides the service acadamys who's throwing less times a game? 148 yards 0 Tds 0 INTs isn't exactly a stellar thing to be jumping up and down about. I mean we supposedly strive for balance on O but we fall short of that every single weak. This wasn't a terrible game by him. But I'm just not in the mood to give participation ribbons out.

The deep ball to Laporta was a tad under thrown. Had he hit him with it he coulda ran with it some too. I'm not bashing him for that at least he completed it. That was huge and was best play of the game besides what all the D did

I think the raw stats have to be contextualized. They had 2 fewer possessions than they should have had because the D scored 2 TDs. In addition, they were in protect-the-lead mode all 2nd half.

Not sure about the LaPorta deep throw, but if that was cover 2, that was exactly the spot for the ball. Any deeper, the safety would have been able to make a play on it. Again, I'm not sure if that is true, but the coverage kind of looked like C2.

I enjoy your perspectives, and I think we mostly agree with what we have in QB this year. But I see more positives from this past weekend than you, perhaps because of my black-and-gold colored glasses.

 

[HawkGold]

It's worked pretty well against the big boys over the years as well. What kind of record do you think Iowa has against top 10 opponents at home over the last decade or so?

I blame none of this on Petras.

2015/2016 came on the back of a sacrificial CJ.. end of story there. The years before that going back 10 you can't be serious.

Last year was brutal and PSU wasn't as advertised.

This year ain't gonna work. This is the first year that one can really call this BF's offense.

BF isn't OC material. Any HC that thinks BF is OC material should be criticized.

This is also post Doylization and post scandal.

I do believe Petras to be a nice young man who is doing about everything the coach wants him to do.

 

[HawkGold]

2024 Big Ten Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

Visit ESPN to view Big Ten Conference Total QBR for the current and previous seasons

www.espn.com

2022 QB Ratings

RK	NAME
1	C.J. StroudOSU
2	Tanner MorganMINN
3	Aidan O'ConnellPUR
4	Taulia TagovailoaMD
5	Sean CliffordPSU
6	Graham MertzWISC
7	Tommy DeVitoILL
8	Casey ThompsonNEB
9	Payton ThorneMSU
10	Evan SimonRUTG
11	Connor BazelakIU
12	Ryan HilinskiNU
13	Spencer PetrasIOWA

QBR	PAA	PLAYS	EPA	PASS	RUN	SACK	PEN	RAW
95.4	34.4	128	29.2	28.9	0.2	-0.6	0.7	94.2
88.7	25.9	103	20.1	15.6	4.9	-0.6	0.2	93.2
83.8	16.9	146	21.3	20.1	0.3	-1.0	2.1	76.9
77.2	20.8	151	23.7	25.0	2.0	-2.2	-0.9	80.7
65.2	13.5	155	18.3	17.6	1.9	-2.6	1.4	71.2
57.1	5.2	103	6.9	6.9	0.7	-2.3	1.7	62.9
55.9	9.5	160	13.3	17.0	-0.5	-4.6	1.5	64.9
55.6	11.4	153	17.7	19.7	5.0	-8.9	1.8	68.4
55.3	2.5	150	6.2	9.8	-2.2	-2.5	1.1	54.3
54.0	-2.0	108	2.4	3.8	2.4	-4.1	0.4	45.2
51.0	-0.1	239	9.6	15.9	-2.7	-5.1	1.5	49.9
49.2	13.3	211	22.2	18.7	4.2	-4.4	3.9	65.8
11.6	-18.4	117	-10.8	-4.7	-1.9	-6.2	2.0	16.3

• Season Leaders: To qualify, a player must play a minimum of 20 action plays per team game

GLOSSARY​

• QBR:Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.
• PAA:Number of points contributed by a quarterback, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
• PLAYSlays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
• EPA:Total expected points added with low leverage plays, according to ESPN Win Probability model, down-weighted.
• PASS:Expected points added on pass attempts with low leverage plays down-weighted.
• RUN:Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes
• SACK:Expected points added on sacks with low leverage plays down-weighted.
• PEN:Expected points added on penalties with low leverage plays down-weighted.
• RAW:Raw Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale (not adjusted for opposing defenses faced)

 

[HawkGold]

Same Web Page ESPN only for this past week only. Look at the rankings below and who they played.
20222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042022
Best GamesWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 4
All ConferencesACCAmericanBig 12Big TenC-USAFBS Indep.MACMountain WestPac-12SECSun BeltBig Ten
Total QBR - Big Ten

RK	NAME
1	C.J. StroudOSU
2	Tanner MorganMINN
3	Taulia TagovailoaMD
4	J.J. McCarthyMICH
5	Tommy DeVitoILL
6	Evan SimonRUTG
7	Austin BurtonPUR
8	Spencer PetrasIOWA
9	Sean CliffordPSU
10	Ryan HilinskiNU
11	Connor BazelakIU
12	Graham MertzWISC
13	Payton ThorneMSU

WEEK	RESULT	QBR	PAA	PLAYS	EPA	PASS	RUN	SACK	PEN	RAW
4	W52-21vs. WISC	98.7	9.6	28	5.3	5.1	0.0	0.0	0.2	97.3
4	W34-7at MSU	97.2	12.3	35	11.2	8.0	3.1	0.0	0.2	97.5
4	L34-27at MICH	81.3	2.4	35	3.9	2.2	1.8	0.0	0.0	67.3
4	W34-27vs. MD	72.7	2.3	31	3.6	4.8	1.3	-2.4	0.0	68.2
4	W31-0vs. UTC	64.0	6.2	36	5.4	6.6	-0.5	-1.3	0.6	85.7
4	L27-10vs. IOWA	61.6	-2.6	55	0.0	-0.2	1.1	-0.7	-0.2	37.8
4	W28-26vs. FAU	60.4	3.4	39	5.1	5.7	-1.3	-0.7	1.3	71.5
4	W27-10at RUTG	58.3	0.6	24	1.4	2.5	-0.1	-1.9	0.9	56.1
4	W33-14vs. CMU	56.5	2.4	43	3.9	4.4	-0.5	0.0	0.0	64.4
4	L17-14vs. M-OH	48.5	0.8	44	2.9	1.9	1.0	0.0	0.0	54.7
4	L45-24at CIN	42.5	-5.8	77	-1.3	0.1	0.4	-2.6	0.8	31.3
4	L52-21at OSU	15.4	-5.8	26	-2.0	-2.0	0.1	-0.4	0.2	9.0
4	L34-7vs. MINN	11.2	-7.3	27	-4.8	0.2	-4.1	-0.9	0.0	5.7

 

[HawkGold]

Was his ranking solid based on the above stats...Maybe. Depends on who Rutgers really is but the effort was slightly below average. Ironically the Rutgers QB scored out slightly better against a better D. Of those below, 1 was on the winning team. 3 were against good competition.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

It's worked pretty well against the big boys over the years as well. What kind of record do you think Iowa has against top 10 opponents at home over the last decade or so?

How easily people forget. In addition as a side point, Iowa actually has a pretty good record against the BIG 10 East. You know, that juggarnot division in the BIG.

As you are pretty much pointing out, Iowa hasn't just beaten the easy teams over the years. They've had some pretty damn good success over top 10 teams as well.

Some people are just never pleased or just choose to live scared.

 

[haydensly]

I think the raw stats have to be contextualized. They had 2 fewer possessions than they should have had because the D scored 2 TDs. In addition, they were in protect-the-lead mode all 2nd half.

Not sure about the LaPorta deep throw, but if that was cover 2, that was exactly the spot for the ball. Any deeper, the safety would have been able to make a play on it. Again, I'm not sure if that is true, but the coverage kind of looked like C2.

I enjoy your perspectives, and I think we mostly agree with what we have in QB this year. But I see more positives from this past weekend than you, perhaps because of my black-and-gold colored glasses.

This. Defense is going to be on the field longer when they score, and they did it twice. Not many teams get that advantage and it actually works against offensive statistics. And, why would you chuck the ball up any more than we did with a 13-17 point lead for most of the game, and the running game clicking for once? No complaints on the play calling in this one.

I also thought the LaPorta pass was put in the only place it could have been completed.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

We won and at the end of the day, nobody will care how well Petras played except coaches and him. If we are going to have a chance against Michigan we will need the offense to move the ball. Petras will have to play well or we are in trouble. The Hawk defense is solid, but they can't be on the field constantly because we are 3 an out series after series. I predict pain and lots of it. I hope I'm wrong.

Iowa is definitely not a team to chase points. I thinks it's very important they not get down by like 10-14 pts. Unfortunately, there are going to be games that they will have to chase points or come back. Not sure they will be good at that. This to support what you are saying.

 

[racerhawk]

Don't like this thread. It is begging insults. I'm sure not intentional but read back over what you wrote and think about what a "good" job is. I'm sure by KF standards it was. But by real experts would it be starting P 5 material based on that game only? At best it was a C grade....

It's fairly obvious to me that Petras will never be a 60% passer. It also obvious he is never going to run through a couple tackles to pick up a first down.

Petras's inaccuracy and inability to run is always going to limit Iowa's ability to pick up first downs and keep drives moving.

I just don't see it. Every time Petras misses a WR on a throw or every time he slides 3 yds before he needs to on a QB run, I am like, why is he the starting QB? Are you seriously telling me there is nobody better?

Guffus, I don't disagree with some of your points, but Petras had a 64.7% completion rate on Saturday. He wasn't a "B" or "A" QB, but he showed some improvement, and had a couple of really nice passes. He also has an evolving (nice way to say it) offensive line. He also has receivers who run mediocre routes, fail to get separation, and drop passes.

Make no mistake, Petras is not good, but his improvement in completion percentage per game is:
1. 44%
2. 46.2%
3. 53.8%
4. 64.7%

His QBR tracked similarly. Will he be shut down against Michigan? Probably. Can the line open up a couple of holes now and then and give him more than a second to throw??? My point is that the whole offense has been rather miserable. If they can get to "C" level work, perhaps they stand a chance to win a fair amount. We'll see.

It's a team game and maybe some of you could slow your roll on being so miserable.

No one is saying Petras is great. Literally no one. He does deserve some credit for Saturday, though. If you re-watch the game, you'd see that he really made a few excellent passes. Again, mild improvement and again, no one is saying that Petras is great.

I could give a crap if middle aged dudes on a message board insult people for being positive. HawkeyeNation has some real experts, to be sure, though.

Iowa is 3-1 and should be 4-0. The offense sucks but if they make some improvements they can still win a lot of games.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

It's fairly obvious to me that Petras will never be a 60% passer. It also obvious he is never going to run through a couple tackles to pick up a first down.

Petras's inaccuracy and inability to run is always going to limit Iowa's ability to pick up first downs and keep drives moving.

I just don't see it. Every time Petras misses a WR on a throw or every time he slides 3 yds before he needs to on a QB run, I am like, why is he the starting QB? Are you seriously telling me there is nobody better?

I don't disagree with your first paragraph. I was struck yesterday watching Matt Ryan against the Chiefs. He is less mobile than Petras, but that guy could put the ball through a pickle jar. If you can't scramble, you gotta be deadly accurate.

On the anything better, I think KF sees that Padilla isn't anymore accurate. He can scramble some, but he isn't Brad Banks. The arm strength of Petras on deep outs and deep balls is something Alex just doesn't have. Teams would crowd the line even more if the QB can't go over the top. And, in KF world, ties go to the older guy. You can disagree with the thinking, but that is the way KF thinks.

 

[racerhawk]

It's fairly obvious to me that Petras will never be a 60% passer. It also obvious he is never going to run through a couple tackles to pick up a first down.

Petras's inaccuracy and inability to run is always going to limit Iowa's ability to pick up first downs and keep drives moving.

I just don't see it. Every time Petras misses a WR on a throw or every time he slides 3 yds before he needs to on a QB run, I am like, why is he the starting QB? Are you seriously telling me there is nobody better?

If we have some competency on the O line we'll be able to have a chance. If not, it's gonna be ugly. Petras,Padilla, or our next savior Labas won't matter.

The whole system is predicated upon running the damn ball. When we can't do that, we're awful.

 

[racerhawk]

I don't disagree with your first paragraph. I was struck yesterday watching Matt Ryan against the Chiefs. He is less mobile than Petras, but that guy could put the ball through a pickle jar. If you can't scramble, you gotta be deadly accurate.

On the anything better, I think KF sees that Padilla isn't anymore accurate. He can scramble some, but he isn't Brad Banks. The arm strength of Petras on deep outs and deep balls is something Alex just doesn't have. Teams would crowd the line even more if the QB can't go over the top. And, in KF world, ties go to the older guy. You can disagree with the thinking, but that is the way KF thinks.

Good points. I like Padilla but did anyone here see anything that made him look leaps and bounds better that Petras last year? I didn't.

 

[Fryowa]

What kind of record do you think Iowa has against top 10 opponents at home over the last decade or so?

4-2 since 2012 against top ten teams in Kinnick:

11-12-16 Michigan (2) W 14-13
9-3-17 Penn State (4) L 19-21
11-4-17 Ohio State (3) W 55-24
10-12-19 Penn State (10) L 12-17
11-16-19 Minnesota (7) W 23-19
10-9-21 Penn State (4) W 23-20

 

[CP87]

3-3 since 2012 against top ten teams in Kinnick:

12-12-16 Michigan (2) L 13-14
9-3-17 Penn State (4) L 19-21
12-4-17 Ohio State (3) W 55-24
10-12-19 Penn State (10) L 12-17
11-16-19 Minnesota (7) W 23-19
10-9-21 Penn State (4) W 23-20

How do you have the 2016 game vs. Michigan as a loss? Even the most casual fan remembers that one.

Iowa 14-13 Michigan (Nov 12, 2016) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAAF game, final score 14-13, from November 12, 2016 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[CP87]

How do you have the 2016 game vs. Michigan as a loss? Even the most casual fan remembers that one.

Iowa 14-13 Michigan (Nov 12, 2016) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAAF game, final score 14-13, from November 12, 2016 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

That 2019 PSU loss was a mess...injuries at OG made us a dumpster-fire on offense.

The 2017 PSU loss seems like it should have been a stereotypical KF win. Destroyed in the box-score, but made the right plays at the right times. Just inches short...

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I don't disagree with your first paragraph. I was struck yesterday watching Matt Ryan against the Chiefs. He is less mobile than Petras, but that guy could put the ball through a pickle jar. If you can't scramble, you gotta be deadly accurate.

On the anything better, I think KF sees that Padilla isn't anymore accurate. He can scramble some, but he isn't Brad Banks. The arm strength of Petras on deep outs and deep balls is something Alex just doesn't have. Teams would crowd the line even more if the QB can't go over the top. And, in KF world, ties go to the older guy. You can disagree with the thinking, but that is the way KF thinks.

I completely agree with this statement. And one has to ask themselves, why shouldn't the tie go to the more veteran player?

Kurt Warner comes to mind. He was a pocket passer as well. His best attribute was going thru his progressions fast and processing fast. He also had the innate ability to hit the receivers in stride which is huge for an immobile QB. He got a lot of yard for the team hitting the players on the run.

 

[InGoodCo]

3-3 since 2012 against top ten teams in Kinnick:

12-12-16 Michigan (2) L 13-14
9-3-17 Penn State (4) L 19-21
12-4-17 Ohio State (3) W 55-24
10-12-19 Penn State (10) L 12-17
11-16-19 Minnesota (7) W 23-19
10-9-21 Penn State (4) W 23-20

Pretty sure they won that Michigan game, so above .500 against what people think are the toughest teams in football (watch dummies try and argue that they weren't worthy of the ranking)

....and if ya take a look at the scores of the losses, looks like it took close to an act of god to beat Iowa at home.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

3-3 since 2012 against top ten teams in Kinnick:

12-12-16 Michigan (2) L 13-14
9-3-17 Penn State (4) L 19-21
12-4-17 Ohio State (3) W 55-24
10-12-19 Penn State (10) L 12-17
11-16-19 Minnesota (7) W 23-19
10-9-21 Penn State (4) W 23-20

Double check that first one. Some funky dates in there too. Who's running this place?