I think we have a better than 50% chance. I think we are probably the best TEAM (including depth) in the conference this year. The problem is that the way the Big Ten officiating goes, you have to be at least 10-12 points better than your opponent to get a road win. I don't think we are 10-12 points better than MSU, Indiana or OSU and then you bake in a few bad shooting nights, we might end up getting jobbed out of about 3 road games we should have won. That seems to happen to us about every year, so if we get jobbed out of 3 games and drop maybe 2-3 on the road that would be difficult to win under normal B1G circumstances anyway, that puts us at 12-13 wins, and then I assume we'll get jobbed by the refs at least once or twice at home, which would knock us down to 10-11 wins. If we don't get jobbed on the road, though, we will put up 13-14 wins, which should be enough to put us 1st or 2nd in the conference.
I don't know why people think this is out of the realm of possibility, barring key injuries.