Penn State prediction and meltdown

NCHawker

NCHawker

Well-Known Member
We’ve seen the offense sputter against weaker competitors now it gets real. I think this will be not only a smothering but PSU will move the ball with surprising ease. Worst ass kicking in years
 
I just don't want it to feel like the OSU game last year.
After awhile, it felt like what Portland St must feel having to play Oregon. Maybe not the same drubbing they took. More like how a mouse must feel when it gets dropped in a pythons cage.
 
I know our offense has a way to go to prove itself . So it’s understandable the doubt that some are showing. Yet we need to remember that we have been a giant burr in Penn State’s side. So Iowa upsetting a highly ranked Penn State is not unheard of. Also, this type of game is what Cade absolutely lives for. The only other game he is just itching to play for is against Michigan in the B1G championship game. So there is that factor.

Now if someone put a gun to my head and told me I have to wager my entire wealth on the game then I would have to put it on Penn State. Money on Penn State. Heart always on the Hawkeyes!
 
I watched the first half of PSU-Illinois and if we get that half of football out of PSU we will be in that game. Geez, PSU won by 17 while being plus 5 in TO's. Sure Illinois is at home for that one, but it's the same home crowd that propelled the Illini to a squeaker of a win against a MAC school. It's always hard to say who is better than who the first half of the season because you just don't know how good or bad their slate of games has been.
 
Look, bud, there's about a 31% chance that Iowa wins this in some shitshow close slugfest, like 9-7, 12-10, 13-12, 14-13, 15-14, 17-16, etc. I'll take that chance. Of course if we have a 31% chance to win a close one that means we have a 69% chance to lose an absolute blowout. Like colostomy bag exploded all over the room style of blowout. 69-3.

Keep the faith. We can do this.
 
Was at Pedo's game vs. Illinois. Illinois had 5 turnovers and only lost by 17 as mentioned earlier. Pedo did not impress. I think we have a decent chance to win but we have to show some improvement.
 
I think we'll see, by the time the season is over, that this Defense isn't anything particularly special. It will be a defense that comes up big sometimes but will give up big plays like we haven't seen in a while. We're already seeing this UTS and WMU both had plays that were strange to see. #10 and #27 are the weak spots. 27 got burned 2x against Michigan in the championship game and seems to me another time as well. #10 isn't as good as advertised...at least not yet
 
NCHawker said:
I think we'll see, by the time the season is over, that this Defense isn't anything particularly special. It will be a defense that comes up big sometimes but will give up big plays like we haven't seen in a while. We're already seeing this UTS and WMU both had plays that were strange to see. #10 and #27 are the weak spots. 27 got burned 2x against Michigan in the championship game and seems to me another time as well. #10 isn't as good as advertised...at least not yet
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It's not uncommon for Iowa's DBs to take some lumps early and then lock down as the season progresses. They have a lot of talent back there.
 
NCHawker said:
I think we'll see, by the time the season is over, that this Defense isn't anything particularly special. It will be a defense that comes up big sometimes but will give up big plays like we haven't seen in a while. We're already seeing this UTS and WMU both had plays that were strange to see. #10 and #27 are the weak spots. 27 got burned 2x against Michigan in the championship game and seems to me another time as well. #10 isn't as good as advertised...at least not yet
Click to expand...

I dunno. I was kinda feeling this way after the first two games. Now? Not so much.
Yes, I'm aware of the level of competition so far. Yes, they've been torched a few times.
And yes, the bend-not-break is always scary (Iowa State game).
But they've not allowed more than 14 points. And have had some stifling halves.

I think, looking back, last year could have been one of the top 10 (or better?) defenses ever to take the field in all of college football history. Certainly if you consider how good would they have been if they had to take fewer snaps? Or had the offense been able to move the ball regularly, giving them some rest and flipping the field even further or giving Tory even more chances to stick one.

I mean, the defensive scoring last year was near historic. That doesn't seem the case this year. But they're still stingy AF and I think all but a handful (or two) of power 5 teams would gladly trade defenses with the Hawks this year.

Also, I'm a big believer in this. That the clock change is making some coaches take more chances. If you're Western Michigan going up against Iowa and the Iowa defense, your mindset is "We will not get many chances. The odds of us repeatedly driving the ball with a traditional mix of run and high-probability-of-success-pass (ie, shorter passes) is highly unlikely. Mix in that we might potentially get one or two less series per half because of the clock, we're gonna have to go for it a little more than normal if we want to win."

They go long a couple more times than they would have. You rely on skill, making your own luck...and outright luck. And sometimes, for any and all teams, those three things will collide and you'll be able to torch even the best of defenses. Sometimes, it doesn't and your linemen goes a little too far downhill and gets flagged as an ineligible receiver.
 
dagdaj said:
I think, looking back, last year could have been one of the top 10 (or better?) defenses ever to take the field in all of college football history. Certainly if you consider how good would they have been if they had to take fewer snaps? Or had the offense been able to move the ball regularly, giving them some rest and flipping the field even further or giving Tory even more chances to stick one.
Click to expand...

Totally agree on last year's defense...and 2021 wasn't far off of it (when our corners were healthy). What you had last year, which is very rare at Iowa, is 2 NFL draft-worthy cornerbacks playing at the same time. Combine that with an all-timer at LB, a first-round draft pick at DE, and gobs of good players throughout the 2-deeps...that was an all-time defense. If we could have married that with one of our serviceable offenses (like 2018 or 2019), we would have been a CFB playoff team.
 
I wish our DL had been playing more dominant... If they would could provide instant pressure more often in the passing game I'd like our chances better. I could see this game going either way. I could see them beating us bad by getting up on us early and it snow balling throughout the game. Or I could see us winning 17-13 or something like that. But D and special teams would have to provide 90% of the fireworks to make it happen. I have a tough time thinking our O will dent the scoreboard much against them and certainly not enough to keep up in any kind of a shootout if D can't hold.
 
Xwampa is taking some bad angles and peeking into the backfield. The touchdown this last game was not the corner's fault. He should have had safety support over the top. Even if you look at the INT he had in the first game, he initially misread the coverage and was fortunate the pass came out way too late. He is so athletic and talented, but he needs better discipline. Phil Parker knows how to coach up the DB, and there is some coaching that is needed at one safety and one CB position.

I also have been underwhelmed by the DL to date. They have been fine, but I haven't seen anyone that can take over a game as we have had the last few seasons.

That all said, this is a Top 15 defense. Maybe not Top 5, but still pretty salty and they have room to grow.
 
I'm not worried about the D, one Phil Parker trait is to keep improving the D as the season goes on. The coaching staff will have plenty to work on this week. Guys are still emerging. Harris looked like he hadn't played in over a year.

It almost seemed like Phil Parker flipped a switch at halftime and said, ok, let's go after them.

I watched some of the Illini/PSU game. It seemed to me that PSU basically wore down the Illini as the game went on. The Bielema honeymoon in Champagne is over, IMO.

It made me think if we are to have a chance in Happy Valley, we will need to win the physicality battle. We've been this same situation before and come out on top. Of course, PSU is very talented and deep so if we don't play our best, we likely won't like the outcome.

Is anyone else reminded of D Nixon with Anterio Thompson? Similar stories, if memory serves, Nixon, from Wisconsin, went to Iowa Western for a year then transferred to Iowa and sat out his first year to work on his academics. He stuck it out when many wouldn't then joined the team and was unleashed on our opponents. I'll be watching for more of Anterio in coming weeks.
 
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