hawkstats1979
Well-Known Member
-13.5 seems a bit high...others' thoughts?
Penn State -13.5
- Thread starter hawkstats1979
- Start date
NCHawker
Well-Known Member
I am not sold on this Defense. I have less confidence in this defense than any I've seen since 2012. I've seen this DLine get gashed, I've seen this DLine fail to put pressure on the passer, I've seen this D fail to hold the edge. I've seen the DBs get burned.
Therefore, we best hope that Iowa's offense is truly on fire this saturday.
Therefore, we best hope that Iowa's offense is truly on fire this saturday.
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NCHawker
Well-Known Member
From the PennState forum
88 minutes ago
Of course Iowa has a chance in this game. This is not last year's Penn State team (people who do the rankings have not figured that out yet) . The Penn State OL, DL, and LB are currently struggling. Not to say they can't put it together, but there is no evidence of that yet.
Iowa has not been perfect but at least it looks like they have solid line play.
I give Iowa a 40% chance to win this game....I would say that is more than a punchers chance?
jshawks said... (original post)
Not many are giving us a punchers chance in this game, and rightfully so. Penn State is superior in talent across the board. What I am hoping for is that we can make it a game. If we can play competitively throughout the game and keep it close, it will go a long ways to boost the confidence of this team. You rarely gain much from a loss, but I honestly think if we can keep it close, it will show that we can play with the big boys and that may propel us to a 9 or 10 win season and make it interesting in the west. Lose big and this is just another 7-5 season. Keep it close and that gives us a punchers chance for Iowa's all important matchup in Madison later in the season, and an outside shot at a rematch in Indy.
88 minutes ago
Of course Iowa has a chance in this game. This is not last year's Penn State team (people who do the rankings have not figured that out yet) . The Penn State OL, DL, and LB are currently struggling. Not to say they can't put it together, but there is no evidence of that yet.
Iowa has not been perfect but at least it looks like they have solid line play.
I give Iowa a 40% chance to win this game....I would say that is more than a punchers chance?
jshawks said... (original post)
Not many are giving us a punchers chance in this game, and rightfully so. Penn State is superior in talent across the board. What I am hoping for is that we can make it a game. If we can play competitively throughout the game and keep it close, it will go a long ways to boost the confidence of this team. You rarely gain much from a loss, but I honestly think if we can keep it close, it will show that we can play with the big boys and that may propel us to a 9 or 10 win season and make it interesting in the west. Lose big and this is just another 7-5 season. Keep it close and that gives us a punchers chance for Iowa's all important matchup in Madison later in the season, and an outside shot at a rematch in Indy.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Starting in 2001, we have played a total of 9 Top 10 teams at home:
2001 - #8 Michigan
2003 - #9 Michigan
2004 - #9 Wisky
2006 - #1 OSU
2008 - #3 PSU
2010 - #10 Wisky; #5 MSU; #8 OSU
2016 - #2 Michigan
In those 9 games, we are a combined 5-4 and have only lost a single time by double digits....in 2006 to #1 OSU by 21. The average score in those 9 games was 25-22, Hawks. So if PSU is giving 13.5 to the Hawks, at Kinnick, you take that and run.
2001 - #8 Michigan
2003 - #9 Michigan
2004 - #9 Wisky
2006 - #1 OSU
2008 - #3 PSU
2010 - #10 Wisky; #5 MSU; #8 OSU
2016 - #2 Michigan
In those 9 games, we are a combined 5-4 and have only lost a single time by double digits....in 2006 to #1 OSU by 21. The average score in those 9 games was 25-22, Hawks. So if PSU is giving 13.5 to the Hawks, at Kinnick, you take that and run.
hawkdrummer1
Well-Known Member
Those are good numbers for sure. But I have a bad feeling about Saturday. Penn St is damn good.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
All but one of those was at least 7 years ago- back when playing in Kinnick was a tough thing. Pretty sketchy to base a pick that way. What's been the average score the last few times we've played PSU?
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
They are good, no doubt. But in their lone road game against Pitt, Pitt exposed some chinks in the armor and the game was closer than the score indicated.
First off, Pitt had TWO 15 play drives in the game that they got a total of 3 points off of. We are a MUCH better redzone team than that.
Second, Pitt was able to expose some things in PSUs run defense that I think we can take advantage of with a much more dynamic running back. Taking away sack yardage, Pitt ran the ball 38 times for nearly 5 ypc.
Finally, Pitt had 3 turnovers....one of which led directly to a TD for PSU.
For me, there are two keys to the game:
1. Win the turnover battle
2. TD efficiency in the redzone....can't settle for FGs
Do the above, and we win.
SpiderRico
Well-Known Member
Ask Michigan if playing at Kinnick was tough.
And before last year, we hadn't played PSU since 2012, which was our worst team in the last 15 years.
Back in 2008, PSU brought a team in that was better than the team they're going to bring this year and we beat them with a team that is probably on par with this year's team.
I'm going to go with the prediction I made several weeks ago....27-24 Hawks.
hawkeyes87
Well-Known Member
It was obviously tougher than they were expecting.
But, how tough was it for NDSU or Northwestern? And you know examples like these are more plentiful this decade than the Michigan example.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Iowa is 3-1 against top 5 teams in Kinnick over the last decade.
kicker22
Well-Known Member
We've seen some impressive RB's this season so far have success against our defense and not one of them has a skill set comparable to Barkley. I think we're going to have a hard time stopping the run or keeping their passing game in check if/when we stack the box, based on what I've seen to this point out of our defense.
Not saying it can't be done and I know we play to the level of our opponents, but I think we may struggle defensively and I'm not sure offensively we can afford to get into a shootout. That said I'm ready for Saturday and conference play to get here.
Not saying it can't be done and I know we play to the level of our opponents, but I think we may struggle defensively and I'm not sure offensively we can afford to get into a shootout. That said I'm ready for Saturday and conference play to get here.
mopkins
King Kong
I take the points. This is Penn State's first decent challenge of the season (Pitt looks like garbage), and its also their first road game of the season. Iowa tends to get up for these night games at home, Iowa has a revenge factor from last year, and Iowa's base defense matches up better against non-spread teams. Not that it helped vs PSU last year.
I don't think Iowa wins, but if I had to bet on this game I'm taking Iowa +13.5
I don't think Iowa wins, but if I had to bet on this game I'm taking Iowa +13.5
JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
Michigan was a night game, the others were not.
