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NorthKCHawk said:
I appreciate the stats. I think they prove my original point, which is Wilson likely played himself out of the HOF. If he retired after '21 from Seattle and never played another down, he would have been a plausible HOF candidate. Probably 50/50 or less. I mean, Denver was not the only team willing to sign him to a deal. But, he has had 4 disastrous seasons since, and its not like he was ancient. He was what, like 33 when he got to Denver?

Also, stop with the pro bowls. That is not a measuring stick. There are so many opt outs that often times they get down to like the 5th or 6th guy in each conference. I did not do a deep dive, but his last year in the pro bowl in '21 he only made it because Brady could not play in it. Tyler Huntley played in the pro bowl. Nuff said.

All Pro? That is a statement of who the best is at every position. Wilson made second team all pro one year. So, he has never been the best at his position even once during his entire career. Is that dispositive? No. But its damned important.

MVP? Never even got a single vote. Ever.

He doesn't merit a jacket IMHO. Not if you look at his total body of work. He was really good for 10 years. Then really, really awful. Never truly elite.
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We can throw out most of the Pro Bowls, but MVP voting is sort of the same popularity contest. So we gotta throw that out too.

He played in the golden era of elite QBs. If you really want to get into the advanced analytics (like the rating Nate Silver came up with), most have him as around the 15th best QB of all time.

But to say he was never elite is way off-base. He was absolutely elite from 2015-2020. Various AI sources rate these as his four best seasons, although you can debate the order.

2018: Career-high 110.9 passer rating, 35 TDs (tied for NFC lead), led Seahawks to playoffs despite injuries. He finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passer rating, (below only Brees at 115.7 and Mahomes at 113.8). His 8.2% touchdown pass percentage made history as the highest mark for a player who wasn’t named MVP (minimum 400 attempts) at season’s end.

2020: Career-high 40 touchdowns, led NFL in TD passes, had MVP buzz early in the season, though the team faltered. Played with a broken finger from October on.

2017: Led NFL with 34 touchdowns and accounted for a huge percentage of Seahawks' scrimmage yards (4,569 of 5,608 yards – 81.5%). He probably wins the MVP if the Seahawks make the playoffs. He led the NFL in both touchdown passes (34) and total touchdowns (37) despite being backed by a ground game that produced one rushing touchdown from a running back all season.In fact, Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing yards (586), yards per cary (6.2) and rushing touchdowns (three).

2015: First 4,000-yard season, led league in passer rating (101.2), lead team to second Super Bowl in a row. His passer rating was a statistically significant 3.9 points above second place. Brady (102.2), Brees (101.0), league MVP Newton (99.4) and Rodgers (92.7)
 


Grady said:
Just what the Hawks need prior to the bowl game -- a pissed off Heisman contender wanting to prove every voter in the country made a mistake when he plays vs Iowa.
We don't need that. I still have nightmares of Iowa's first defensive play vs McCaffery at the Rose Bowl.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SebUSOQBJ7Y
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1st? If I remember correctly, he scored TDs the first three times he got the ball. I've never seen anything like it.
 


SwirlinLingerie said:
We can throw out most of the Pro Bowls, but MVP voting is sort of the same popularity contest. So we gotta throw that out too.

He played in the golden era of elite QBs. If you really want to get into the advanced analytics (like the rating Nate Silver came up with), most have him as around the 15th best QB of all time.

But to say he was never elite is way off-base. He was absolutely elite from 2015-2020. Various AI sources rate these as his four best seasons, although you can debate the order.

2018: Career-high 110.9 passer rating, 35 TDs (tied for NFC lead), led Seahawks to playoffs despite injuries. He finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passer rating, (below only Brees at 115.7 and Mahomes at 113.8). His 8.2% touchdown pass percentage made history as the highest mark for a player who wasn’t named MVP (minimum 400 attempts) at season’s end.

2020: Career-high 40 touchdowns, led NFL in TD passes, had MVP buzz early in the season, though the team faltered. Played with a broken finger from October on.

2017: Led NFL with 34 touchdowns and accounted for a huge percentage of Seahawks' scrimmage yards (4,569 of 5,608 yards – 81.5%). He probably wins the MVP if the Seahawks make the playoffs. He led the NFL in both touchdown passes (34) and total touchdowns (37) despite being backed by a ground game that produced one rushing touchdown from a running back all season.In fact, Wilson led the Seahawks in rushing yards (586), yards per cary (6.2) and rushing touchdowns (three).

2015: First 4,000-yard season, led league in passer rating (101.2), lead team to second Super Bowl in a row. His passer rating was a statistically significant 3.9 points above second place. Brady (102.2), Brees (101.0), league MVP Newton (99.4) and Rodgers (92.7)
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There is a big difference between the accolade of the pro bowl versus being named the MVP of the league. So, I do not accept that tie in one bit.

While there is no established criterion for HOF, I think you need to have a relatively long career where you showed consistently outstanding play, but you also have to demonstrate at some point that you are the best or near the best in the league in a given season or two. Super Bowls, Super Bowl wins, Super Bowl MVPs are all positive signs in that regard, but to me, the biggest indicators are League MVPs and being named All Pro. I acknowledge that Tom Brady sucked up a lot of oxygen.

This is why a guy like Eli Manning is a very questionable candidate and may not make it. Some great post season runs, but overall, he was mostly just pretty good most of his career. He would not have my vote.

I get your golden era of QBs with Brady, Manning and Mahommes overlapping his career. But, Brees figured out how to lace in a First Team All-Pro and 4 Second team along with a league POY. That along with a Super Bowl win and MVP and a long, heavy stat-filled career likely will get him in. Big Ben lacks All Pro or MVPs, but 3 Super Bowls, two wins, two MVPS and a long, consistent career packing stats probably gets him in.

Wilson packed stats for 10 years, but was never one of the best QBs in the league. He won a single Super Bowl. Even if he quit after his tenure in Seattle, its an iffy HOF resume. With the shit show he has put on the last four years, he killed his chances IMHO.
 


MelroseHawkins said:
Agree. I don't think he's going to get drafted and his antics are not surely going to help. He needed help prior with his frame size and being a dick is just going to turn anybody remotely looking to look the other way, IMO. I looked at his past and path, and to be honest I don't know how good he really is or if just is a situation of where he is at this time.
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Watch this year's Vandy-Tennessee game. He's good.
 


Grady said:
Watch this year's Vandy-Tennessee game. He's good.
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He is a good player and doesn't get rattled very easily on the field and his teammates seem to like playing with him. I think he could play at the next level but he would have to be in the correct system and have some pieces around him.

He is not a guy that you can build an organization around and just plug and play. You would need to have some a very specific offensive system and players around him to make it work. Unless he completely melts down off the field I can see a team or 2 giving him a shot.
 






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