Palm Explained What Iowa Has to Do to Make the Dance

[WindsorHawk]

From espn.com

Iowa [19-11 (8-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 115] The Hawkeyes are back! Actually, the Hawkeyes were never truly here, because they've spent all season being just far enough outside the bubble picture that including them would have been nothing more than fan service. It just wasn't very realistic. And when Iowa lost that road game at Nebraska, the dream appeared to be dead. But two factors have the Hawkeyes at least within spitting distance of the back end of the bubble: Tuesday's win over Illinois, which got them near .500 in the best league in the country (which isn't among the stated tourney criteria but certainly can't hurt); and the collapse of nearly every fringe bubble team ostensibly ahead of them in the considerations. From an analytic standpoint, I'm actually in favor of the Hawks; they are one of the nation's 35 or so best teams, and much, much better than their horrendous computer numbers (thanks in large part to a 313 nonconference SOS) say they are. They're the classic underrated-by-RPI team. With a 4-9 record away from Carver-Hawkeye, and just a home game against Nebraska left in the regular season, they have to make something happen at the Big Ten tournament next week to make this a more realistic proposition. But the dream isn't dead.

College Basketball Bubble Watch - As the tourney draws near, a look at where we stand after a busy night on the bubble - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

This is common sense, passing the eyeball test, whatever you want to call it... This is about getting the best teams in the tournament which includes Iowa.

 

[SpiderRico]

I disagree with Jerry. I think if we win Saturday, win our 1st round game against NW and don't get blown out in Rd 2, I think we are definitely in the bubble discussion. We may not make it, but we will definitely be in the discussion. The bubble is extremely weak and when you put our resume side-by-side with the other bubble teams, we stack up just fine. But winning that 2nd rd game, I think, puts us in for sure.

 

[WindsorHawk]

They beat then #1 Indiana. That gets them in.

I understand that they beat Indiana. They do opt to show up for 1 game out of every 5. We don't always win but we show up to play. We don't throw in the towel in a game. Fran doesn't look confused down the stretch or just sit with his arms crossed while the game goes up in smoke. That was also a home game for them. They don't win on the road which is the big knock on Iowa...other than our weak non conference schedule.

If Minnesota follows up their loss to Nebraska with a loss to Purdue and then a loss in the 1st round of the BTT to Illinois they should not be dancing IMO. I won't pick them to win a game in the NCAAs if they make it. Will anyone pick them? Play a zone and score 60 points and most any NCAA team beats Minnesota. I think they're awful. This observation isn't related to "Iowa should get in ahead of Minnesota." I'm saying they aren't an NCAA Tournament team...if this is how it all goes down.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

I understand that they beat Indiana. They do opt to show up for 1 game out of every 5. We don't always win but we show up to play. We don't throw in the towel in a game. Fran doesn't look confused down the stretch or just sit with his arms crossed while the game goes up in smoke. That was also a home game for them. They don't win on the road which is the big knock on Iowa...other than our weak non conference schedule.

If Minnesota follows up their loss to Nebraska with a loss to Purdue and then a loss in the 1st round of the BTT to Illinois they should not be dancing IMO. I won't pick them to win a game in the NCAAs if they make it. Will anyone pick them? Play a zone and score 60 points and most any NCAA team beats Minnesota. I think they're awful. This observation isn't related to "Iowa should get in ahead of Minnesota." I'm saying they aren't and NCAA Tournament team...if this is how it all goes down.

I agree and just can't see why the rankings love this Minnesota team so much. Sans the game against Indiana, they are totally crumbling and don't agree with the RPI & Kenpom that Minnesota is one of the best 20 teams in the country.

Maryland also beat Duke, but that doesn't mean they are dancing, either.

Saying that Minnesota should be in the NCAA Tournament because they beat Indiana is like saying that Roger Maris should be in the HOF because he hit 61 home runs one year. What else have you done?

Further, I just mentioned this in another thread, but while I agree that overall "body of work" has to mean something, I think the team you are NOW should mean alot more than the team you were in December. In Minnesota's case, that is not good.

 

[bcl20]

I agree and just can't see why the rankings love this Minnesota team so much. Sans the game against Indiana, they are totally crumbling and don't agree with the RPI & Kenpom that Minnesota is one of the best 20 teams in the country.

Maryland also beat Duke, but that doesn't mean they are dancing, either.


Saying that Minnesota should be in the NCAA Tournament because they beat Indiana is like saying that Roger Maris should be in the HOF because he hit 61 home runs one year. What else have you done?

Further, I just mentioned this in another thread, but while I agree that overall "body of work" has to mean something, I think the team you are NOW should mean alot more than the team you were in December. In Minnesota's case, that is not good.

Minnesota beat Memphis, Michigan State, Iowa, Stanford, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. All good teams.

 

[storminspank]

Jerry Palm was on the Big Ten Finale after the Minny loss to Nebby. He said that Iowa will get a serious look for the Dance only if the following occur:

1. Iowa beats Nebby Saturday.
2. Iowa wins its first round game in the BTT.
3. Iowa wins its second round game in the BTT.

His reasoning is that Iowa has to show that it can beat a "tournament quality" team away from Carver, and has yet to do that. Thus, the need to beat one of the top 4 seeds in the second round.

In effect, the next 3 games are "elimination" games for Iowa so far as the NCAA tournament is concerned.

Heck, at least we are in the conversation right now!!!

Palm is almost 100% accurate in his NCAA analysis from year to year.....

Weird.
He said on Twitter just a few days ago they had to win the BTT to get in.

 

[storminspank]

https://twitter.com/jppalmCBS/status/309120584174931968

Palm:
"win it. maybe. depends who they play, what others do RT @dcarey71: If Iowa holds on and then beats NEB, what must they do in B10 tourney?"

Then followed up w:
"bad NC schedule, bad away from home, mediocre record vs good teams"

 

[bcl20]

https://twitter.com/jppalmCBS/status/309120584174931968

Palm:
"win it. maybe. depends who they play, what others do RT @dcarey71: If Iowa holds on and then beats NEB, what must they do in B10 tourney?"

Then followed up w:
"bad NC schedule, bad away from home, mediocre record vs good teams"

Aside from the non-con schedule, that describes a bubble team in general.

 

[99topdawg]

https://twitter.com/jppalmCBS/status/309120584174931968

Palm:
"win it. maybe. depends who they play, what others do RT @dcarey71: If Iowa holds on and then beats NEB, what must they do in B10 tourney?"

Then followed up w:
"bad NC schedule, bad away from home, mediocre record vs good teams"

He did say on BTN last night something like it has been a bubble team's dream the past few days, with all of the other bubble teams losing, or something to that effect, which could be one of the reasons he has changed his tune.

 

[storminspank]

He did say on BTN last night something like it has been a bubble team's dream the past few days, with all of the other bubble teams losing, or something to that effect, which could be one of the reasons he has changed his tune.

Overall, yes, but teams like Villanova and ISU pretty much punched their tickets last night with big wins.

 

[ssckelley]

Disagree. The 6 might give Iowa a better chance at a 1st round win but it's the second round that all pundits are looking to for Iowa to win. Iowa gets the 6 and it's more likely they will be playing either Michigan or OSU -- me no likey!

They way things could go (Wisky beats a reeling MSU to win out and Indy beats Michigan) I want Hawks to stay in the #7 to face either Wisky or Indy in the second round. Wisky @ MSU, tonight, has huge implications for Iowa's BTT potential success.

You might not like it but I think the team would be excited to take another swing at either Ohio State or Michigan.

I want that #6 seed because if they lose the 2nd round game I want to force the committee to pass on a 6th place Iowa to take a 7/8/9th place Illinois and/or Minnesota, teams that Iowa went 2-1 against. I might be dreaming but I want someone on that committee to say "how can we pass on the 6th place team in the toughest conference?". If you dig into Iowa's entire body of work what hurts them is 7 non conference games they scheduled against RPI +200. The not winning on the road excuse does not work for me, none of the bubble teams (especially Minnesota) play well on the road.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Spank and others...What are the odds you will pick Minnesota to win their 1st round game in the NCAA Tournament? I'm talking right now with the way they are playing. Let's make their opponent someone like Wichita State, Iowa State, Villanova... The only way I will consider picking them to win is if they are playing a team that refuses to play zone defense...then I will at least give Minnesota consideration but it's unlikely I will take them.

 

[WindsorHawk]

You might not like it but I think the team would be excited to take another swing at either Ohio State or Michigan.

I want that #6 seed because if they lose the 2nd round game I want to force the committee to pass on a 6th place Iowa to take a 7/8/9th place Illinois and/or Minnesota, teams that Iowa went 2-1 against. I might be dreaming but I want someone on that committee to say "how can we pass on the 6th place team in the toughest conference?". If you dig into Iowa's entire body of work what hurts them is 7 non conference games they scheduled against RPI +200. The not winning on the road excuse does not work for me, none of the bubble teams (especially Minnesota) play well on the road.

This is 1 reason I'm glad there is a rep from Michigan State on the Selection Committee. I have to think he mentions this at some point.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Overall, yes, but teams like Villanova and ISU pretty much punched their tickets last night with big wins.

I think Villanova did. I think ISU is in trouble if they lose their next/last 2...don't want to leave that taste in the Committee's mouth.

 

[storminspank]

Spank and others...What are the odds you will pick Minnesota to win their 1st round game in the NCAA Tournament? I'm talking right now with the way they are playing. Let's make their opponent someone like Wichita State, Iowa State, Villanova... The only way I will consider picking them to win is if they are playing a team that refuses to play zone defense...then I will at least give Minnesota consideration but it's unlikely I will take them.

I'm not buying Minnesota at all. Too inconsistent.
If the refs let them be physical, they can beat almost anyone. If not, g'night.

 

[bws258]

I've said all along that Iowa would finish ahead of Minn & Illannoy ...

I think Plam's right though, we need 3 more wins

 

[hawkeye12345]

If we can't win at home v Nebraska and on a neutral site v Northwestern then we aren't going to be relevant in the bubble conversation.

The committee isn't going to look at the Iowa @ Wisky game and say to themselves that Iowa could have won that game had the ball not bounced softly for Brust. Most teams in the country could claim that they had an off night or an unlucky bounce at some point throughout the year. A loss is a loss no matter how it happened.

We are deep into the bubble conversation IF we win the next two games. Then we could potentially make the tournament without a 2nd win in the Big10 tourny IF the majority of bubble teams get knocked out early in their respective conferences. Outside that unlikely scenario we need to win our 2nd round game and we are most certainly in the tournament.

At this point it is win and we are in. I don't think it's going to happen without Mike G but it's nice to be having this conversation after over a decade of futility.

Either way, the future looks bright for the Iowa hoops program.

 

[JonDMiller]

Jerry Palm was on the Big Ten Finale after the Minny loss to Nebby. He said that Iowa will get a serious look for the Dance only if the following occur:

1. Iowa beats Nebby Saturday.
2. Iowa wins its first round game in the BTT.
3. Iowa wins its second round game in the BTT.

His reasoning is that Iowa has to show that it can beat a "tournament quality" team away from Carver, and has yet to do that. Thus, the need to beat one of the top 4 seeds in the second round.

In effect, the next 3 games are "elimination" games for Iowa so far as the NCAA tournament is concerned.

Heck, at least we are in the conversation right now!!!

Palm is almost 100% accurate in his NCAA analysis from year to year.....

This is what a lot of us have been writing and saying for the past week. After the loss to Indiana, I felt Iowa had to win four in a row in order to get into the real discussion. They are 1-0. Three more to go

 

[LG210]

From espn.com

Iowa [19-11 (8-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 115] The Hawkeyes are back! Actually, the Hawkeyes were never truly here, because they've spent all season being just far enough outside the bubble picture that including them would have been nothing more than fan service. It just wasn't very realistic. And when Iowa lost that road game at Nebraska, the dream appeared to be dead. But two factors have the Hawkeyes at least within spitting distance of the back end of the bubble: Tuesday's win over Illinois, which got them near .500 in the best league in the country (which isn't among the stated tourney criteria but certainly can't hurt); and the collapse of nearly every fringe bubble team ostensibly ahead of them in the considerations. From an analytic standpoint, I'm actually in favor of the Hawks; they are one of the nation's 35 or so best teams, and much, much better than their horrendous computer numbers (thanks in large part to a 313 nonconference SOS) say they are. They're the classic underrated-by-RPI team. With a 4-9 record away from Carver-Hawkeye, and just a home game against Nebraska left in the regular season, they have to make something happen at the Big Ten tournament next week to make this a more realistic proposition. But the dream isn't dead.

College Basketball Bubble Watch - As the tourney draws near, a look at where we stand after a busy night on the bubble - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

I knew we were back!

 

[JonDMiller]

Also, Palm puts way too much emphasis on road wins, it's what "separates" him from the other bracketologists, it's his "thing". I don't think the committee puts as much weight in to it as Palm does. I think beat Neb, win round 1 and Iowa is majorly in the discussion, but that is banking on some teams currently occupying the bubble slipping up.

The RPI formula was changed in 2005 and the main change was more weight placed on road wins.