Over/Under Wins

deanvogs

deanvogs

Well-Known Member
Chris Andrews has come out with some lines for the upcoming football season.

http://againstthenumber.com/big10_season_wins/

Iowa at 8.5 wins (I like Iowa getting the over here)

The only other West team with a higher over/under number is Wisky at 10 (he has Nebraska at 8). This is the first time I've looked at the Vadgers schedule, and they have a pretty easy one as well. They get Rutger and Maryland from the East, and Nebraska at home. Their tough road games are @ Iowa and @jNW.

EDIT: This is for the 12 game regular season. No bowls or championship game.
 
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Hmm I wonder if that's what it comes out at I Vegas. I would guess it gets pushed up to 9 at some point. If it stays at 8.5 I'd definitely take the over.
 
I cautiously take the over. I am very excited for the season. I've been burned in the past by getting my hopes up too much, but I just can't help myself.
 
DJL said:
I cautiously take the over. I am very excited for the season. I've been burned in the past by getting my hopes up too much, but I just can't help myself.
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Same here. After 8 wins last year, I too will take the over.. I'll say 9-10 wins. We're not far enough removed from the disappointment of 2010-12 for me to feel extremely confident, but it seems like we have reason to be optimistic. Including an "easy" schedule. Maybe "favorable" is a better word.
 
Under. Lose to Pitt, maybe ISU, Wisconsin, Nebraska and then at least two of Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Northwestern. High water mark is 8 wins.
 
My thoughts;
Pitt was 7-6 last year. Maybe a tough game made tougher because it's an away game. Not an automatic loss by any stretch...This is a team that barely beat Bowling Green in the Little squeezers bowl. They sent their QB and WR to the NFL. Even so this game may be a September test to see what kind of team the Hawkeyes are.
Iowa State's problems are going to continue this year. They may not get much past three wins. 3-5 wins maybe? And one of them won't at Kinnick. Minnesota's passing offense was atrocious last year... Iowa wins
Indiana in Iowa City. Iowa wins.
Northwestern at home. Not sure what to make of NW. Is all the union activity over there affecting their focus? Probable win for Iowa.
Wisconsin and Nebraska are two tough games but they are at home. Trip to the conference championship may be through Iowa City. But we've been here before. So much promise in August only to.....
8-10 wins
 
okeefe4prez said:
Under. Lose to Pitt, maybe ISU, Wisconsin, Nebraska and then at least two of Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Northwestern. High water mark is 8 wins.
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Oh ye of little faith. Based on player availability at this point, the end of last season, and I think the still bitter taste in the mouth of the team for the 2012 season I go with the over. Nine wins.

There is always the problem with stumbling against a team we should beat but I think the hawks win the first 3.

We have King now at CB so if they get a good replacement for Lowery then that bodes well against these pass happy teams while leaving 9 defenders up the middle.

Pitt could be tough but I think we win at least one of Pitt/Maryland.

The B1g is not that super tough especially if the hawks minimize mistakes.

We could lose both the last two games but I think we beat Nebby and Wisky is close.
 
LG210 said:
Under. Sadly, under.
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The last time we had a schedule this soft was 2007. We had some nice players on that team. We missed going to a bowl game by getting destroyed by Western Michigan on Senior Day. Hopefully the QB play surprises me, but based on what I saw last year out of QB and Greg Davis, I think 8 wins is the high water mark for this team. If we get a few weather assists during the year that put the games firmly in control of the o-line, maybe we can hit 9.
 
Here is the deal...Iowa will lose one game in the first ten. It all comes down to Wisconsin and Nebraska. If I am wrong and we lose two of the first ten, the end is the same. Yeah, injuries can derail any team, but that is the only wildcard.
 
When I look at something like this I typically like to classify games in 1 of 3 categories.... Probably Win, Probably Loss or Toss up.

The thing about this year's schedule, there really aren't games you would chalk up as a loss. Wisconsin, maybe, but it's at home.

Probably Win: UNI, Ball State, ISU, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Ill, Minn
Toss Up: Pitt, Northwestern, Nebraska,
Probably Loss: Wisconsin

In reality, we will probably drop 1-2 games of the Maryland/Purdue/Ill/Minn games but we should win 1-2 of the toss ups.

I keep coming up around the 8-9 win mark so it seems right now.

Good Sign... Both Lines should be solid
Question Mark.... Hawkeye teams that have been good in the past have been lead by Defense. Our biggest question mark is how big of a step back do we take back after the trio of LB.

I think my conclusion is not to touch the line but if forced.... I suppose I'd take the over.
 
Gotta agree with OK4P - 8 is the target.

Tend to agree with ibahawkeye, except I'd move Maryland (away) and Indiana (sick offense) to the "toss up" column.

LB's were huge difference makers down the stretch last year and can't minimize losing them. DL will be solid but feel it is what it is and won't be as dominant as many hope, nor generate as much pressure as will be needed to compensate for loss of Kirksey, Morris and Hitchens to back them up.

On the other side, based on practices, a more vertical mindset with a few more threats (Willies) but still unproven. OL could be vintage but as long as any lateral elements are retained (MW called on to run stretch plays and DB brought in to spell / be a 3rd down back) I still see an offense that is as likely to sputter as it is to explode.

Gotta stick with 7-5 and hope for 9-3. I guess that has me taking the under.
 
okeefe4prez said:
The last time we had a schedule this soft was 2007. We had some nice players on that team. We missed going to a bowl game by getting destroyed by Western Michigan on Senior Day. Hopefully the QB play surprises me, but based on what I saw last year out of QB and Greg Davis, I think 8 wins is the high water mark for this team. If we get a few weather assists during the year that put the games firmly in control of the o-line, maybe we can hit 9.
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We are on the same page, Keith.
 
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