Over/Under Wins

ibahawkeye said:
When I look at something like this I typically like to classify games in 1 of 3 categories.... Probably Win, Probably Loss or Toss up.

The thing about this year's schedule, there really aren't games you would chalk up as a loss. Wisconsin, maybe, but it's at home.

Probably Win: UNI, Ball State, ISU, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Ill, Minn
Toss Up: Pitt, Northwestern, Nebraska,
Probably Loss: Wisconsin

In reality, we will probably drop 1-2 games of the Maryland/Purdue/Ill/Minn games but we should win 1-2 of the toss ups.

I keep coming up around the 8-9 win mark so it seems right now.

Good Sign... Both Lines should be solid
Question Mark.... Hawkeye teams that have been good in the past have been lead by Defense. Our biggest question mark is how big of a step back do we take back after the trio of LB.

I think my conclusion is not to touch the line but if forced.... I suppose I'd take the over.
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Honest question--when has KF's Iowa lived up to high expectations (I think 9 wins constitutes high expectations) after losing so many linebacker starters? They are pretty important in our defensive scheme.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
Gotta agree with OK4P - 8 is the target.

Tend to agree with ibahawkeye, except I'd move Maryland (away) and Indiana (sick offense) to the "toss up" column.

LB's were huge difference makers down the stretch last year and can't minimize losing them. DL will be solid but feel it is what it is and won't be as dominant as many hope, nor generate as much pressure as will be needed to compensate for loss of Kirksey, Morris and Hitchens to back them up.

On the other side, based on practices, a more vertical mindset with a few more threats (Willies) but still unproven. OL could be vintage but as long as any lateral elements are retained (MW called on to run stretch plays and DB brought in to spell / be a 3rd down back) I still see an offense that is as likely to sputter as it is to explode.

Gotta stick with 7-5 and hope for 9-3. I guess that has me taking the under.
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This, I'm afraid, is likely a solid analysis.
 
I see the Hawks losing maybe 2 games....Wis. and Neb.

Now, upsets do happen all the time in college football, so I will allow that the Hawks could lose to Pitt, Md, or Minny/NW, but I believe that if Vegas was setting a line for each Iowa game right now they would be favored in all but maybe the Wis game.

Not gonna shrink from that objective analysis....Iowa wins ten or more.
 
LG210 said:
Honest question--when has KF's Iowa lived up to high expectations (I think 9 wins constitutes high expectations) after losing so many linebacker starters? They are pretty important in our defensive scheme.
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It is a bad cycle. We turned over good LBs in 2006 (Hodge and Greenway graduated) and finished 6-6.

We turned over good LBs in 2010 (Edds and Angerer graduated but the rest of the team remained pretty stacked) and finished 7-5.

We turn over good LBs in 2014. Look at the trend.
 
JHHawk said:
I see the Hawks losing maybe 2 games....Wis. and Neb.

Now, upsets do happen all the time in college football, so I will allow that the Hawks could lose to Pitt, Md, or Minny/NW, but I believe that if Vegas was setting a line for each Iowa game right now they would be favored in all but maybe the Wis game.

Not gonna shrink from that objective analysis....Iowa wins ten or more.
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Objective analysis is that we got really lucky to beat Northwestern last year in a year where literally every bounce went against them. Objective analysis is that Indiana has a darn good offense and we have 3 new LBs, which usually doesn't bode well for us. Objective analysis is that Ferentz has won a single non-con BCS game outside the State of Iowa in September and it was against an awful Syracuse team in 2006. An objective analysis is that 10 or more wins is going to require a near miracle.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Fine. Consider it a troll, pal. But when we finish around 7-5 and I ain't mad and you're walking around all mad, you'll be sorry.
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Like.

In 2010, people were generally predicting 10-12 wins. I looked at the LB situation and went with 8 wins--and people mocked and called me a fool. I ended up being pretty damn close.
 
LG210 said:
Honest question--when has KF's Iowa lived up to high expectations (I think 9 wins constitutes high expectations) after losing so many linebacker starters? They are pretty important in our defensive scheme.
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No argument... other than I don't know if we've had a schedule this easy.
 
ibahawkeye said:
No argument... other than I don't know if we've had a schedule this easy.
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It's never as easy as it looks, buddy. Never. Someone among Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana is gonna have a darn good team. Maybe two of them will. I still think Northwestern has a darn nice little program, they just caught every single bad break imaginable in a 7 game Big Ten losing streak. We'll see how they look without Colter, though. I think Indiana is building a nice program, too. They scare the crap out of me. Beckman's back is against the wall at Illinois and given the timing that we play them, that Iowa game could be the make or break game as to whether he stays. We sure haven't done well in those types of games even when we have the materially better team. Yeah, our division looks pretty weak, but I don't see any gimme games when conference play starts other than Purdue.

It sure seems like a lot of our opponents have bye weeks before they play us, too (Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota and Maryland). Ugh.
 
okeefe4prez said:
It's never as easy as it looks, buddy. Never. Someone among Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana is gonna have a darn good team. Maybe two of them will. I still think Northwestern has a darn nice little program, they just caught every single bad break imaginable in a 7 game Big Ten losing streak. We'll see how they look without Colter, though. I think Indiana is building a nice program, too. They scare the crap out of me. Beckman's back is against the wall at Illinois and given the timing that we play them, that Iowa game could be the make or break game as to whether he stays. We sure haven't done well in those types of games even when we have the materially better team. Yeah, our division looks pretty weak, but I don't see any gimme games when conference play starts other than Purdue.

It sure seems like a lot of our opponents have bye weeks before they play us, too (Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota and Maryland). Ugh.
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Uh huh.... you do notice we don't play Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or Penn State, right?

It's NEVER looked THIS easy.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Objective analysis is that we got really lucky to beat Northwestern last year in a year where literally every bounce went against them. Objective analysis is that Indiana has a darn good offense and we have 3 new LBs, which usually doesn't bode well for us. Objective analysis is that Ferentz has won a single non-con BCS game outside the State of Iowa in September and it was against an awful Syracuse team in 2006. An objective analysis is that 10 or more wins is going to require a near miracle.
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Wait...Iowa was lucky vs NW last season,but all those NW narrow NW wins over Iowa are not luck? Iowa blowing a 13 point lead with 2 minutes to go was not lucky for NW?

NW has to replace players also....Iowa losing their 3 linebackers is very common in college ball...players leave every year. Iowa returns nore starters than NW....so NW must be replacing someone, right?

I respect these teams...IU has a great offense, but gave up 52 points in a loss to Michigan last year, right?
IU's defense could be worse this year, and it was the worst in the league last year. ..and they come to Kinnick...I like our chances.

On the road at Pitt could be a challenge....but they suffered huge losses in the draft (top d-lineman in the draft and a QB taken on the second day....Pitt will not be better this year.

Objective analysis is Vegas putting the over/under at 8.5. Money never lies. Vegas will get equal action,they resume, with 9 or more wins.

Seems like you cut Fitz all kinds of slack that you would never consider for KF.....like Iowa has not lost close games. NW is going to struggle this year.
 
odds of winning each game and a running total (expected number of wins at that point in season)

UNI - 95% - 0.95
Ball State - 90% - 1.85
ISU - 75% - 2.60
@Pitt - 55% - 3.15
@purdue - 70% - 3.85
Indy - 60% - 4.45
@MD - 55% - 5.00
NW - 60% - 5.60
@Minny - 50% - 6.10
@ ILL - 60% - 6.70
Wiscy - 50% - 7.20
Neb - 50% -7.70

over under = 7.7 wins
 
JHHawk said:
Wait...Iowa was lucky vs NW last season,but all those NW narrow NW wins over Iowa are not luck? Iowa blowing a 13 point lead with 2 minutes to go was not lucky for NW?

NW has to replace players also....Iowa losing their 3 linebackers is very common in college ball...players leave every year. Iowa returns nore starters than NW....so NW must be replacing someone, right?

I respect these teams...IU has a great offense, but gave up 52 points in a loss to Michigan last year, right?
IU's defense could be worse this year, and it was the worst in the league last year. ..and they come to Kinnick...I like our chances.

On the road at Pitt could be a challenge....but they suffered huge losses in the draft (top d-lineman in the draft and a QB taken on the second day....Pitt will not be better this year.

Objective analysis is Vegas putting the over/under at 8.5. Money never lies. Vegas will get equal action,they resume, with 9 or more wins.

Seems like you cut Fitz all kinds of slack that you would never consider for KF.....like Iowa has not lost close games. NW is going to struggle this year.
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Welcome to Hawkeyenation.
 
This is another season just made for controversy. 8.5 O/U nails it.

If win 8, there will be 2 camps. Those saying we should have won more with this schedule and those saying "some of you are just never happy, for god sakes...EIGHT WINS!".

If we win 9, even with one "we should have won that one" game ..most people will consider it a solid year.
 
okeefe4prez said:
It is a bad cycle. We turned over good LBs in 2006 (Hodge and Greenway graduated) and finished 6-6.

We turned over good LBs in 2010 (Edds and Angerer graduated but the rest of the team remained pretty stacked) and finished 7-5.

We turn over good LBs in 2014. Look at the trend.
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So the LB were a problem in 2010? The D was ranked #7 in the nation in scoring D at 17 PPG. Is that season really on the D??? Plus did Tarp missed games, and Davis missed most of the season if I remember right.


Okeefe prove me wrong that you aren't trolling. I would be willing to bet that Iowa gets 8 wins or more. I mean you say 8 wins is the absolute high water mark, and I'm betting Iowa will get to "your absolute best case scenario, or high water mark". I know you make truckloads of cash, so I would think a $100 or $200 bet on this wouldn't mean much to you.
 
deanvogs said:
So the LB were a problem in 2010? The D was ranked #7 in the nation in scoring D at 17 PPG. Is that season really on the D??? Plus did Tarp missed games, and Davis missed most of the season if I remember right.


Okeefe prove me wrong that you aren't trolling. I would be willing to bet that Iowa gets 8 wins or more. I mean you say 8 wins is the absolute high water mark, and I'm betting Iowa will get to "your absolute best case scenario, or high water mark". I know you make truckloads of cash, so I would think a $100 or $200 bet on this wouldn't mean much to you.
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I don't care where the defense was ranked in 2010. What I know is that in 2009 when we needed big plays in clutch situations, the linebackers made them. In 2013 when we needed big plays in clutch situations, the linebackers made them, too. I don't care if the defense is ranked 7th or 70th, I care about what they do when it is waning minutes of the fourth quarter and the game is on the line - a good, upperclassmen Iowa LB corps has frequently been the difference between close wins and close losses. Unfortunately, our LBs generally need a good year of getting torched to break in and build up that situational awareness to make those key plays. I don't want to wager on Iowa underperforming to the downside.
 
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