Over/Under Wins

hawkdrummer1 said:
This is another season just made for controversy. 8.5 O/U nails it.

If win 8, there will be 2 camps. Those saying we should have won more with this schedule and those saying "some of you are just never happy, for god sakes...EIGHT WINS!".

If we win 9, even with one "we should have won that one" game ..most people will consider it a solid year.
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9 wins? You just tell me where to sign, bud.
 
okeefe4prez said:
I don't care where the defense was ranked in 2010. What I know is that in 2009 when we needed big plays in clutch situations, the linebackers made them. In 2013 when we needed big plays in clutch situations, the linebackers made them, too. I don't care if the defense is ranked 7th or 70th, I care about what they do when it is waning minutes of the fourth quarter and the game is on the line - a good, upperclassmen Iowa LB corps has frequently been the difference between close wins and close losses. Unfortunately, our LBs generally need a good year of getting torched to break in and build up that situational awareness to make those key plays. I don't want to wager on Iowa underperforming to the downside.
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Really? Well lets take a look at it.

2009 D (with great LB's according to you)
-Let UNI stroll into FG position and have a chance to beat Iowa in the last seconds. Special teams saved that D from gagging away that win
-Allowed 14 4th Qtr points to Arkansas St. Iowa recovered the onside kick, and then the O run off time and punted giving Arkansas St 88 yards to go in 10 seconds, or Iowa's D would have gagged that one away
-Let Michigan St. convert a 3rd & 18 on a hook and freaking ladder, then gave up a 30 yd TD pass with 1:37 sec. to go. Iowa's D gagged this game away, but was saved by Stanzi's drive for the winning TD
-Gave up 2 4th qtr. TD's to Ohio St. Only a 99 yd TD kickoff return by DJK, and a great drive for a TD by JVB forced that game into OT.

Basically the 2009 D gagged away 4 games that year late.....but the offense or special teams picked them up 3 out of the 4 times, and saved the wins

2010 D (with no LB play according to you)
-Special teams gagged away a HUGE fake punt to Wisconsin after the D had stopped them. The D then couldn't stop that drive. Iowa still had 1:06 to play, but couldn't bail out the D.
-Spit the bit against jNW and allowed 14 4th qtr. points. Iowa's O has a chance to bail them out with 1:22 to go, but can't get it done.
-Allowed 10 4th qtr points to OSU and gagged away a 7 point lead. Iowa's O had a chance to tie or win with 1:47 left, and didn't get it done
-Gagged against Minny giving up a 4th qtr TD. Iowa fumbled with 4 min. to go and the D couldn't get the gooferes off the field and give the O another chance.

Iowa's season was disappointing in 2010, not because of LB's, not because of the D, as it was basically what it was the year before: Scoring D (7th Vs 8th) & attempted 4th Qtr gagging away of games (4 Vs 4). It was the offenses or special teams that picked up the D in 2009 that led to the extra wins......not LB play.
 
Wisconsin loses 6 of their front , and 8 defensive starters overall, but they are going to roll, while Iowa's loss of 3 lbers will cripple their hopes? No.
 
I think 8.5 wins is about right for this season.

Iowa will be heavily favored (8+ points) in 5 home games (UNI, Ball St, ISU, Indiana, NW)
Iowa should be slightly favored (1-7 points) in 5 road games (@Pitt, @Purdue, @Maryland, @MN, @Ill)
Toss-ups (Wisconsin, Nebby)

So assuming 5 wins, they'd have to win 3/4 of those road games and possibly one of the toss-ups. Makes perfect sense.
 
deanvogs said:
Really? Well lets take a look at it.

2009 D (with great LB's according to you)
-Let UNI stroll into FG position and have a chance to beat Iowa in the last seconds. Special teams saved that D from gagging away that win
-Allowed 14 4th Qtr points to Arkansas St. Iowa recovered the onside kick, and then the O run off time and punted giving Arkansas St 88 yards to go in 10 seconds, or Iowa's D would have gagged that one away
-Let Michigan St. convert a 3rd & 18 on a hook and freaking ladder, then gave up a 30 yd TD pass with 1:37 sec. to go. Iowa's D gagged this game away, but was saved by Stanzi's drive for the winning TD
-Gave up 2 4th qtr. TD's to Ohio St. Only a 99 yd TD kickoff return by DJK, and a great drive for a TD by JVB forced that game into OT.

Basically the 2009 D gagged away 4 games that year late.....but the offense or special teams picked them up 3 out of the 4 times, and saved the wins

2010 D (with no LB play according to you)
-Special teams gagged away a HUGE fake punt to Wisconsin after the D had stopped them. The D then couldn't stop that drive. Iowa still had 1:06 to play, but couldn't bail out the D.
-Spit the bit against jNW and allowed 14 4th qtr. points. Iowa's O has a chance to bail them out with 1:22 to go, but can't get it done.
-Allowed 10 4th qtr points to OSU and gagged away a 7 point lead. Iowa's O had a chance to tie or win with 1:47 left, and didn't get it done
-Gagged against Minny giving up a 4th qtr TD. Iowa fumbled with 4 min. to go and the D couldn't get the gooferes off the field and give the O another chance.

Iowa's season was disappointing in 2010, not because of LB's, not because of the D, as it was basically what it was the year before: Scoring D (7th Vs 8th) & attempted 4th Qtr gagging away of games (4 Vs 4). It was the offenses or special teams that picked up the D in 2009 that led to the extra wins......not LB play.
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The offense didn't give the defense any time to rest. Do you blame Stanzi's injury on the defense too?
 
MiniMoeHawk said:
The offense didn't give the defense any time to rest. Do you blame Stanzi's injury on the defense too?
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original
 
deanvogs said:
Chris Andrews has come out with some lines for the upcoming football season.

http://againstthenumber.com/big10_season_wins/

Iowa at 8.5 wins (I like Iowa getting the over here)

The only other West team with a higher over/under number is Wisky at 10 (he has Nebraska at 8). This is the first time I've looked at the Vadgers schedule, and they have a pretty easy one as well. They get Rutger and Maryland from the East, and Nebraska at home. Their tough road games are @ Iowa and @jNW.

EDIT: This is for the 12 game regular season. No bowls or championship game.
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I get the 8.5 but what do the other numbers mean?
 
Hawknick said:
14 wins!
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15 wins actually

12-0 regular season

27-24 win vs. tOSU in B1G championship game
23-20 win vs. Oklahoma in semifinal round for Nat'l Championship
26-23 win vs. Alabama in the National Championship game

=

15-0

Shoot for the stars baby
 
SteveGarvey said:
15 wins actually

12-0 regular season

27-24 win vs. tOSU in B1G championship game
23-20 win vs. Oklahoma in semifinal round for Nat'l Championship
26-23 win vs. Alabama in the National Championship game

=

15-0

Shoot for the stars baby
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Looks like a helluva year for our kicker, too.
 
I'm sick of seeing Ohio St cake walk schedule every yr! They have one ranked team on their schedule this yr. What a joke!
 
NCHawker said:
I get the 8.5 but what do the other numbers mean?
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Iowa 8.5 over even
under -120

These numbers mean that if you bet the over, which is "even", you'd have to bet $100 to win $100.

To bet the under at -120, you'd need to bet $120 to win $100.

Maryland 5.5 over +120
under -140

For Maryland, to bet the over you'd bet $100 to win $120. For the under, you'd need to bet $140 to win $100.

Typical on team win over/under bets, once "the number" comes out, it doesn't change. But the betting lines around it, the -120/-140/even numbers, will fluctuate.
 
ICHawk24 said:
Iowa 8.5 over even
under -120

These numbers mean that if you bet the over, which is "even", you'd have to bet $100 to win $100.

To bet the under at -120, you'd need to bet $120 to win $100.

Maryland 5.5 over +120
under -140

For Maryland, to bet the over you'd bet $100 to win $120. For the under, you'd need to bet $140 to win $100.

Typical on team win over/under bets, once "the number" comes out, it doesn't change. But the betting lines around it, the -120/-140/even numbers, will fluctuate.
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It will move to 8 if people keep hammering the under 8.5
 
ICHawk24 said:
Iowa 8.5 over even
under -120

These numbers mean that if you bet the over, which is "even", you'd have to bet $100 to win $100.

To bet the under at -120, you'd need to bet $120 to win $100.
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So, based on the payout, Vegas considers it more likely that Iowa will win 8 or fewer games, because it considers that a less valuable bet? In other words, OK4P is right on the "money" (literally and figuratively) that 8 wins is considered the high water mark.

Some of the Polly's better start dropping coin on their over bets or this will remain the truth.
 
STILLBUSTER said:
So, based on the payout, Vegas considers it more likely that Iowa will win 8 or fewer games, because it considers that a less valuable bet? In other words, OK4P is right on the "money" (literally and figuratively) that 8 wins is considered the high water mark.

Some of the Polly's better start dropping coin on their over bets or this will remain the truth.
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Vegas doesn't determine anything. They set the line that will get the most action....A majority of the public is expecting 8 or less wins which is a good thing for Iowa since they are normally wrong.
 
LG210 said:
Like.

In 2010, people were generally predicting 10-12 wins. I looked at the LB situation and went with 8 wins--and people mocked and called me a fool. I ended up being pretty damn close.
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Hey LG210, what are your thoughts on LB play thus far this season? I turned the game off in disgust at halftime after watching the Terps exploit our back 7 with runs to the outside after Iowa jumped out to a 14-0 lead. I also heard our careful game manager QB threw a pick 6, so I decided to take a 24 hour hiatus from posting out of fear of getting banned. I'm really worried about the rest of the year. Hopefully the Northwestern team that only mustered 28 yards in the second half last night is the one that shows up in Iowa City in 2 weeks because that Jackson kid at tailback is gonna punish us if we don't bring our A game on defense. I'm really worried that Illinois and perhaps Minnesota are the only wins left on the schedule.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Hey LG210, what are your thoughts on LB play thus far this season? I turned the game off in disgust at halftime after watching the Terps exploit our back 7 with runs to the outside after Iowa jumped out to a 14-0 lead. I also heard our careful game manager QB threw a pick 6, so I decided to take a 24 hour hiatus from posting out of fear of getting banned. I'm really worried about the rest of the year. Hopefully the Northwestern team that only mustered 28 yards in the second half last night is the one that shows up in Iowa City in 2 weeks because that Jackson kid at tailback is gonna punish us if we don't bring our A game on defense. I'm really worried that Illinois and perhaps Minnesota are the only wins left on the schedule.
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Just seeing this now.

To my dismay, this thread is chock full of unfortunate win for you and me. Spot on, which sucks.
 
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