I understand wanting to be optimistic for the team you root for in all but being optimistic based on other people's success (be in 1 in a million success like Johnny Football) or KF's past success ('08) with underdog teams seems pointless to me and to argue the contrary is even worse IMO for the reasons I listed in my previous post. I get it, it can happen but will it? I could win the lottery but I probably won't.
Over/Under Totals for Iowa, Rest of Big Ten
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
I understand wanting to be optimistic for the team you root for in all but being optimistic based on other people's success (be in 1 in a million success like Johnny Football) or KF's past success ('08) with underdog teams seems pointless to me and to argue the contrary is even worse IMO for the reasons I listed in my previous post. I get it, it can happen but will it? I could win the lottery but I probably won't.
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
i'm being the contrarian? the only reason i even responded to this thread was because both of you called other people's opinions BS or "laughable" as if your opinions are more important or more valuable than others. i simply pointed out flaws in your arguments.
FTR, i think 8 wins in the regular season is the high number and lean more towards 6 or 7. but someone predicting 8 wins isn't "laughable" or BS to me
thejumper5
Well-Known Member
I don't see that level of NFL talent on Iowa's squad, but that wasn't really my point. My point was that when Texas had RBs who were better/more experience than their QBs, they ran the ball more than they passed it, but when they had QBs who were better/more experienced than their RBs, they threw the ball more than they ran it.
It seems to me that Iowa probably has better/more experienced RBs this season, so I think it's probable that Iowa will run the ball more than pass it this year.
FreedComanche
Banned
I'm going back on my word here in that I said I wouldn't respond to you again.
1. You said.......
"i simply pointed out flaws in your arguments."
It wasn't a flawed argument. We were basically saying that historically, it's improbable to have a winning season with the kinda offensive team tha Iowa has this year.
And you did more than what you stated. You wouldn't except this and then you spewed your us with your that nobody's opinion means more than any others. The BS becaue if somebody is arguing with probabilities and someone else is just throwing a dumb statement out there, there is a difference in the weighting of those oinions.
2. You said...............
"but someone predicting 8 wins isn't "laughable" or BS to me"
Of course it's not to you because you don't recognize historic probabilities. I am not saying this is the exact number, but if a guy did research and found that out of all the teams that started a qb with NO college game day experience in the past 50 years, that 10% of the teams won 8 games or more; would this not seem to indicated that a team fitting this profile does not have a good chance to win 8 games? I'm not asking you this because I already know you don't care about what history says.
FreedComanche
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
jumper provided you stats earlier freed. you chose to ignore them.
and dave told me earlier history doesn't matter because this team is made up of different components.
and when did i say iowa has a GOOD chance of winning 8 games? find that for me please. all i've stated is that someone's prediction(opinion) is not BS if they predict 8 wins. i also stated i think 8 wins is the ceiling for this team and 6 or 7 is more likely to me.
my reasons for optimism heading into this season: one more year under the new offense. a receivers coach that the OC wants and has worked with before and are on the same page. a very solid OL. (as of now) 3 capable running backs that bring something different to the table. 3 qb's that have more time to learn the system. a year older and stronger defensive line. 3 quality linebackers. sure, a few question marks in the defensive backfield. a quality kicker.
those are my reasons for optimism. 8 wins is the ceiling, 6 or 7 are more likely to me. is that BS? probably to you, but anyone that disagrees with you is BS
and dave told me earlier history doesn't matter because this team is made up of different components.
and when did i say iowa has a GOOD chance of winning 8 games? find that for me please. all i've stated is that someone's prediction(opinion) is not BS if they predict 8 wins. i also stated i think 8 wins is the ceiling for this team and 6 or 7 is more likely to me.
my reasons for optimism heading into this season: one more year under the new offense. a receivers coach that the OC wants and has worked with before and are on the same page. a very solid OL. (as of now) 3 capable running backs that bring something different to the table. 3 qb's that have more time to learn the system. a year older and stronger defensive line. 3 quality linebackers. sure, a few question marks in the defensive backfield. a quality kicker.
those are my reasons for optimism. 8 wins is the ceiling, 6 or 7 are more likely to me. is that BS? probably to you, but anyone that disagrees with you is BS
FreedComanche
Banned
I never said you predicted that Iowa would 8 games this year.
You said it's not BS to predict that. According to that guy on here who gave the stats, historically, teams who play a qb that has no game day experience; those teams account for less than 10% of the teams that win 8+ games. Based on that, it is BS to predict they'll win 8 games this year. Not saying they won't, just foolish to believe they will based on those percentages.
FreedComanche
I get what you're saying but Texas had better overall players (every position). It was easier for them to run the ball or pass on those years but merely leaned heavier on whatever player was better at the time. Texas' passing in the years they had good RB's wasn't as bad as 115th in the nation like Iowa in '12.
I think if the O-line and Weisman would have stayed healthy, I think 6-6 would have been the overall regular season record maybe even 7-5 but Iowa still would have had a horrible passing game and the offense would have only been able to get maybe 3-7 more points per game.
I'm sorry but Freed called you the "contrarian". Plus you didn't actually provide an points that showed any flaws in my argument. I showed the flaws in your "argument".
Plus I don't think my opinion is more important or valuable, where did I ever say that?
Where the heck did you get that stat?
Even if that is true it means little. There are so many more variables.
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
read this post from jumper again...
By my count 2012 saw 17 teams with a primary quarterback who had never before thrown a pass and 14 featured a QB who had thrown fewer than 50 career passes. 6 of 17 (35.3%) of the QBs with zero career passes led their teams to 8+ wins, and 8 of 14 (57.1%) teams with very inexperienced QBs led their teams to 8+ wins. In sum, teams with QBs with zero or limited experience won 8+ games 45.2% of the time last year.
you're not comparing apples to apples. i don't care what the teams with experienced qbs did. for this comparison, all you can use is the teams that fit this category last year. and of those teams, almost 50% of them won 8+ games.
its not as "unlikely" as you seem to think it is. but knowing you you will twist the facts somehow to prove something else
FreedComanche
Banned
Look earlier in this thread. Forgot the guy's name who gave those stats. And that is a very valuable stat. Ask any coach or sports writer.
FreedComanche
FreedComanche
Banned
I did read that. What you continue to fight against is that when teams who played a qb with NO game day experience it was 10% or under. Yeah, it changes with a qb that has little game day experience.
He even acknowldged it when I responded to him on that earlier in this thread. Go read it if you want.
FreedComanche
Don't want to be that guy but 35.3% is the number not 45.2%. You can't compare teams with limited experience because Iowa's QB haven't played D1 football, they have zero experience, not limited. So in summary, 1 out of 3 teams in the past have won 8+ games.
Can Iowa do it, I sure hope so but I won't get my hopes up for it.
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
sure, my apologies. was typing quick and looked up for a % and went with it. 35.3 is still an extremely high percentage to be labeled as BS or laughable. this is all i've been saying throughout this thread
FreedComanche
Banned
1. Quit spreading false crap. Go back and read that guys response. It was 10% of the teams that won 8 + games did it with a qb that had NO experience.
2. Even if it was 35.3%, the odds are way against it happening. Gee, what's 100-35.3? 64.7 vs 35.3 percentage odds. You know what? You are right. 35.3% is such strong odds. I'm gonna let you be man. There's no hope.
FreedComanche
It's not even that simple. Winning 8+ isn't that easy even if you aren't starting a new QB. Jumper wrote that 56 teams out of all 120 teams won 8+ games (46.6%). So compare the 46.6% chance of any random team winning 8+ against the 35.3% chance to win 8+ for just new QB teams. The spread is there and unfavorable but it doesn't seem too much more difficult than any other year to win 8+.
Iowa may be different than the average team. For example we won 8+ with Banks, Chandler, Tate and Stanzi all starting their 1st year. If you look at Iowa's % of seasons 8+ under KF compared to Iowa's % of seasons 8+ when starting new QBs under KF I bet it's not much different. We might even have more 8+ season when starting new QBs. That kind points to a different problem, right?
whammer33024
Well-Known Member
explain to me how i'm spreading false crap? i said read it again. the fact is that of the 17 teams that had a qb with 0 experience, 6 of them won 8 or more games for a percent of 35.3. comparing that to what teams that had qbs with experience is moot because that's not the argument. you said a team will not win 8+ games with a qb that has 0 experience. last season alone, 6 teams accomplished this feat. again, i never said iowa had a GOOD chance to win 8+ games...i simply said its not BS for someone to think they can.
What I think is laughable is the people who are comparing Iowa's situation with Johnny football as their example. The picture Jumper painted the percentages does look better but is Iowa going to be in the 35.2% or the 65.8%. I am not a gambling man so I am going with 65.8% especially seeing how bad last season was and how the WRs have a long time go to and we still don't know if the O-line and the RB's are truly healthy. What I also think is laughable is to assume that because GD was able run successfully with Cedric Benson and Ricky Williams that he WILL be able to do and win 8+ games this upcoming season with DB and JC or maybe Weisman.
