Over/Under Totals for Iowa, Rest of Big Ten

[hwk23]

What I think is laughable is the people who are comparing Iowa's situation with Johnny football as their example. The picture Jumper painted the percentages does look better but is Iowa going to be in the 35.2% or the 65.8%. I am not a gambling man so I am going with 65.8% especially seeing how bad last season was and how the WRs have a long time go to and we still don't know if the O-line and the RB's are truly healthy. What I also think is laughable is to assume that because GD was able run successfully with Cedric Benson and Ricky Williams that he WILL be able to do and win 8+ games this upcoming season with DB and JC or maybe Weisman.

What's laughable is what you're missing in plain sight. We're Iowa, we do better with new QB's. You don't need to keep ridiculing the Johnny football example when we have plenty of examples of new QBs excelling right here at Iowa. 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2008 were all years featuring new QB's. Those were 4 of the 5 best years for KF. The only year we did exceptionally well with a returning QB was 2009 (under KF).

 

[FreedComanche]

explain to me how i'm spreading false crap? i said read it again. the fact is that of the 17 teams that had a qb with 0 experience, 6 of them won 8 or more games for a percent of 35.3. comparing that to what teams that had qbs with experience is moot because that's not the argument. you said a team will not win 8+ games with a qb that has 0 experience. last season alone, 6 teams accomplished this feat. again, i never said iowa had a GOOD chance to win 8+ games...i simply said its not BS for someone to think they can.

I went back and looked at the numbers that Jumper5 posted. I think it was from page three of this thread. Here it is..........

"In 2012, there were 56 FBS teams that won 8+ games. 6 of 56 (10.7%) won 8+ games with a QB who had never before thrown a collegiate pass."

With that I rest my case and wish you a Happy 4th.

FreedComanche

 

[dave3912]

What's laughable is what you're missing in plain sight. We're Iowa, we do better with new QB's. You don't need to keep ridiculing the Johnny football example when we have plenty of examples of new QBs excelling right here at Iowa. 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2008 were all years featuring new QB's. Those were 4 of the 5 best years for KF. The only year we did exceptionally well with a returning QB was 2009 (under KF).

I only said the johnny football examples were laughable. Not to mention 35% chance in college football overall is not great odds. I agree those were great years for new starting QBs at Iowa but that was with KOK as OC not GD. So no, its not that simple. Plus throw in how many of those teams won 4 or less games the year before.

 

[Hawknick]

I found some interesting stats on - The Best New Take in College Football Predictions, Odds and Rankings that outweigh your qb stats. Experience at defense and in the kicking game result in a higher chance of winning than an experienced qb does. Teams that return a starting qb only have a 60.8% chance of winning more games than the previous year. Where as teams with 8 returning starters on defense have 63.3% chance of winning more, and 62.3% if the teams return both the starting kicker and punter. All in all the numbers are in Iowa's favor.

 

[FreedComanche]

I found some interesting stats on - The Best New Take in College Football Predictions, Odds and Rankings that outweigh your qb stats. Experience at defense and in the kicking game result in a higher chance of winning than an experienced qb does. Teams that return a starting qb only have a 60.8% chance of winning more games than the previous year. Where as teams with 8 returning starters on defense have 63.3% chance of winning more, and 62.3% if the teams return both the starting kicker and punter. All in all the numbers are in Iowa's favor.

Your post and the numbers you cite assume that Iowa will win more games than last year. I've gone on record several times in the last few months stating the hawks will be 5-7 this year.

You aren't arguing with me since I think they will have a better record from last year.

The reason why I got involved with this thread is because several folks on here think that they will win 8+ games. The numbers I have cited indicate that the odds are about 90% against that happening with a no expereince qb.

Having said all that, I hope the hawks win out this coming season.

FreedComanche