OUTBACK BOWL PREDICTION THREAD

  • Thread starter Ian Pike Hammer
  • Start date

Who wins and by how much?

  • Iowa, by 7 or more

    Votes: 8 13.3%
  • Iowa, by 7 or less

    Votes: 18 30.0%
  • Miss. St, by 7 or more

    Votes: 29 48.3%
  • Miss. St, by 7 or less

    Votes: 5 8.3%

  • Total voters
    60
  • Poll closed .
Their QB is 6' 5" and 230 lbs. How fast can he be??? About 53% on his passes with 15 TDs and 7 picks. Oh yah he way better than Stanley! Take away his run option and make him throw. Phil Parker will have him. Peyton Mansell running scout for this one.
Dobbs had 9 TDs and 5 picks the year Iowa played Tennessee and we bottled up their offense.
 
Guys, what the hell are you talking about? Their QB has over 1,000 rushing yards. Iowa does not play well against running quarterbacks, and Fitzgerald is one of the best RPO quarterbacks in the country.

No Fant, Stanley chokes in any game not against a bottom-feeder B1G squad, Kirk is 1-5 this decade in bowl games, and the worst conceivable QB match up against our D.

MSU 41 - Iowa 17

I have to agree with Fryiowa which I only do about 50% of the time. And he is always wrong the other 50% I dont agree with him on ;)

But like he says running QBs especially the 1,000 yard variety almost always give us trouble. The hawks usually are at a pretty severe speed impairment level against the SEC teams.

I dont think Iowa will give up 41 unless the defense has the worst tackling day since the HawkSlayer bowl (just terrible tackling and angles) and if the offense cant stay on the field (ala 2017 at Wisky) and the defense just gets worn down.

If their QB is not great throwing the longer ball I think we have to play a lot of zone and a tighter zone toward the LOS. Have people ready to make tackles.

On offense we need to try to hit some home runs, need to have fastest receivers in try for some big plays cuz it might be hard to grind it out. I hope I am wrong but so far we are averaging less than 4 yards rushing per carry I believe.
 
Dobbs had 9 TDs and 5 picks the year Iowa played Tennessee and we bottled up their offense.
That Iowa team was much worse against a weaker schedule. Do you honestly think Rudock was better than Stanley? Weisman better than Sargent and Young? Duzey better than Hockensen? I could go on with the comparisons.
 
Their QB has pretty shitting throwing stats.
Doesn't matter. He's got over 300 more rushing yards than Sargent and Young combined.

Iowa has historically been horrible against dual threat, RPO style QBs. Whether it's because we don't see them in the Big Ten or because the staff doesn't prepare well enough against them is moot. We plain suck against it.
 
Doesn't matter. He's got over 300 more rushing yards than Sargent and Young combined.

Iowa has historically been horrible against dual threat, RPO style QBs. Whether it's because we don't see them in the Big Ten or because the staff doesn't prepare well enough against them is moot. We plain suck against it.
You've got that backwards. Young and Sargent have 1378 yards on the year, Fitzgerald is at 1018.

The thing about the Run/Pass Option, is that you need the Pass part to actually be a threat. Theirs is not. I'd expect Iowa to load the box and make the OL pick up extra blitzers, which they haven't been very good at this year.
 
Whether it's because we don't see them in the Big Ten or because the staff doesn't prepare well enough against them is moot.
Could be that our linemen and LBs usually aren't that great in years we have to play against them. I don't care what your game plan is, you need some damned good athletes to shut a well functioning RPO down.
 
Dear Christ people, you make it sound like we're facing Bama themselves.

It's not a gimme, but Jesus people, it's more than winnable.

Iowa can win this game. If MSU has a lot of speed on defense which I assume they do then we better be practicing running straight power blocking right at them. The hawks havent ran the ball well laterally all year so most outside zone stretch plays will probably be wasted plays.

I know nothing about MSU's pass defense but if they have a few weaknesses I hope we practice agianst that to the point of perfection. And I hope we throw deep on first down more than usual to try to get quick strikes and back off their defense.

The hawk defense is best against the run so stop the run first, get some penetration to stop any option and RPO by gettting in the QBs face fast and often. But stop the run (NW this year first half to 2nd half on offense was completely different cuz they found some ways to run the ball). Then take care of the pass which I think they can. Maybe play zone the first 2 downs and try to get them into 3rd and long and mix up that coverage.

KF and BF, it is a bowl game so try to be aggressive and let the players play.
 
Iowa can win this game. If MSU has a lot of speed on defense which I assume they do then we better be practicing running straight power blocking right at them. The hawks havent ran the ball well laterally all year so most outside zone stretch plays will probably be wasted plays.

I know nothing about MSU's pass defense but if they have a few weaknesses I hope we practice agianst that to the point of perfection. And I hope we throw deep on first down more than usual to try to get quick strikes and back off their defense.

The hawk defense is best against the run so stop the run first, get some penetration to stop any option and RPO by gettting in the QBs face fast and often. But stop the run (NW this year first half to 2nd half on offense was completely different cuz they found some ways to run the ball). Then take care of the pass which I think they can. Maybe play zone the first 2 downs and try to get them into 3rd and long and mix up that coverage.

KF and BF, it is a bowl game so try to be aggressive and let the players play.
Their defense is legit, no doubt. They don't force a lot of turnovers but they're disciplined and athletic. If I were a betting man I'd set the over/under at about 28.5, and then still take the under.

Their offense, though, is anemic, and is totally dependent on the run game. Stop the run, and you likely shut them down.
 
Hawks do suck on the running QB for sure. Just go back and look at what a one legged Trace McSorley did to us this year. About a 40 yarder to the end zone untouched. I haven't seen MSU this year, but you never know what a team might do in a bowl game. Hoping for a Hawk victory. I say 24-17 Hawks.
 
That game was the absolute best possible matchup for the Hawks.

An Iowa D that was great at generating turnovers against a So Car qb who was a turnover machine and coach who wouldn't reign him in at all.

You could see that blowout coming...
If I recall correctly, South Carolina was also expecting greener pastures that year and the Outback was a big letdown for them.

They got Greene pastures instead.

Shonn Greene made sure that those feeling letdown wouldn't be disappointed.
 
Dear Christ people, you make it sound like we're facing Bama themselves.

MSU averaged 19.25 ppg in conference play. 11.1 ppg against SEC teams with a pulse (Ole Miss and Arkansas were garbage). LITERALLY HALF (55% actually) of their scoring output came from their 4 game non-conference slate. 45% of their rushing yards came from those games as well.

They lost 28-7 to Kentucky, who had the 101st rated total offense in the country.

Fitzgerald completed just barely over half (52.6%) of his passes this year, and only eclipsed 200 yards 4 times on the year, once in conference play.

They were held without a TD 3 TIMES in conference play.

It's not a gimme, but Jesus people, it's more than winnable.
To me it's not so much about their offense being good or bad, it's the fact that you couldn't pick a worse match for Iowa at QB. When quarterbacks make us back up and then get in open space by themselves the Hawks struggle.
 
Doesn't matter. He's got over 300 more rushing yards than Sargent and Young combined.

Iowa has historically been horrible against dual threat, RPO style QBs. Whether it's because we don't see them in the Big Ten or because the staff doesn't prepare well enough against them is moot. We plain suck against it.

Not really true, Iowa has had a lot of success against running QB's. Taylor Martinez, Shoelace, Josh Nesbit and those are just off the top of my head. I recall them being very good against them. Iowa is bad against running QB's who also can accurately throw. Wallace, McSorley, Kain Colter etc - but that's like every defense in the country. Iowa's defense thrives on QB's that can't pick up 3rd and manageable to long consistently. Give them a month to game plan? I don't think this is a real bad match up for Iowa's defense. Their offense on the other hand? Really struggled against better competition.
 
Hawks do suck on the running QB for sure. Just go back and look at what a one legged Trace McSorley did to us this year. About a 40 yarder to the end zone untouched. I haven't seen MSU this year, but you never know what a team might do in a bowl game. Hoping for a Hawk victory. I say 24-17 Hawks.
Adrian Martinez even had 76 on the ground and a score.
 
Hawks tend to do well against run first offenses, not from Wisconsin.... MSU offense is pretty much meh, not unlike Iowa's. Defenses are both strong. Seems like a toss-up. God help me, I am feeling a win against a ranked opponent. 20-16 good guys. One Iowa score by defense or special teams.
 
At first glance, (I know very little about them) I would say come out heavy and punch them in the mouth.
I think our D will hold up fine. Just like the Nebraska game, don't over persue, take good lines and un like the Nebraska game, when you can hit the qb, you run right through him, no letting up.
I think running heavy on the O and being patient will have a good effect. Just keep pounding the ball.
Then slide in one over the top (not like 10 yards). Then back to pounding and then slide in another deep route.
Block block block. Wear them out, beat them up and run away with it in the second half.
 
Adrian Martinez even had 76 on the ground and a score.

Adrian Martinez and Trace McSorley both are great throwing QB's, you guys must have missed where the MSU dude throw's more like Tommy Armstrong.... who BTW Iowa had great success against.
 
To me it's not so much about their offense being good or bad, it's the fact that you couldn't pick a worse match for Iowa at QB. When quarterbacks make us back up and then get in open space by themselves the Hawks struggle.
I sort of see your argument, but the fact Iowa has an equally good defense going against a worse offense while actually having some semblance of balance in their own just eliminates nearly any possibility of blowout in my mind. Goes both ways though.
 
We can win but it's going to require we do some things that we normally don't do.
1). We can't line up in our base defense against this team. As another poster noted, load the box to stop the run and the running QB.
2). Stanley has to be able to hit WR targets under pressure. If he can't, we won't be able to move the ball.
 
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