Here's my stance....
MBB: Iowa at Ohio State Preview/Prediction

By Justin VanLaere
The Iowa Hawkeyes try to do something that’s been done just twice in Hawkeye Basketball history… beat the nation’s #1 ranked team. They’ll attempt to do this on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.
Game Info
Iowa Hawkeyes (7-10, 0-5) at Ohio State Buckeyes (18-0, 5-0)
POMEROY RATINGS: Iowa – 78, OSU – 3
RPI: Iowa – 165, OSU – 8
Tip Off: Wednesday, January 19th, 2010; 5:36 PM CST
Columbus, OH – Value City Arena (19,049)
TV: BTN (HD) • RADIO: AM-600, AM-800, AM-1040 SAT: Sirius 121, XM 141
Iowa leads the series 75-73.
NO LIVE CHAT SCHEDULED –
Check the
Basketball Forum for any last minute additions and/or a Game Thread.
Probable Starters
IOWA
PG – Bryce Cartwright, 6’1”, 180 lb, JR
G – Matt Gatens, 6’5”, 215 lb, JR
G – Eric May, 6’5”, 225 lb, SO
F – Melsahn Basabe, 6’7”, 225 lb, FR
C – Jarryd Cole, 6’7”, 250 lb, SR
OSU
G – William Buford, 6’5”, 205 lb, JR
G – Jon Diebler, 6’6”, 205 lb, SR
F – David Lighty, 6’5”, 220 lb, SR
F – Jared Sullinger, 6’9”, 280 lb, FR
C – Dallas Lauderdale, 6’8”, 255 lb, SR
VanLaere’s Analysis
Does Iowa stand a chance in this game? Can they even stay within 20 points of the Ohio State? Look at it this way: Iowa competed very well on the Golden Gophers’ home court, leading Minnesota at times in the second half inside The Barn. This is the same team that Tubby took to Columbus last week and nearly beat the Buckeyes. No, this isn’t an A beats B, B beats C, thus A beats C scenario. This stems from watching the games and realizing that Iowa had its chances to beat Minnesota on their home court and watching Minnesota almost take out Ohio State on their home court. It’s not to say that I think Iowa will necessarily go into Value City Arena and take down the Bucks. I’m merely pointing out that it’s not the most far-fetched idea. That said, this is the least likely win for the rest of the Hawkeyes’ 2010-11 season. If Coach McCaffery is able to lead his team to victory tonight, it would be the biggest win of the season, one of the biggest wins of his career, and one of the biggest in the history of the program. Sure, there have been bigger and more notorious wins in Iowa Basketball history on a national scale, this much is true. However, due to the current state of the program and what it has gone through the past decade, this win would undoubtedly go a long way in beginning to restore Iowa back to level most people reading this article were used to. Beating a #1 Ohio State team would be such a monumental win for the program and its fans at this point in time.
KEYS TO GAME FOR IOWA:
-
Get Basabe Involved. The Ohio State game inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena was a coming-out party for Melsahn. It was the game where Big Ten coaches took note and he received the highlighter on their scouting reports. Jared Sullinger is good, we know that. Last time out, though, Melsahn held his own against the nation’s best freshman. In fact, I’d argue Basabe had the better game between the two. Iowa needs to get Basabe involved in the offensive game early and often, which in turn should spark his defensive intensity, as well.
-
Find Matt Gatens Some Shots. When I talked to Matt after the Minnesota game, he said his hand still wasn’t 100% and he didn’t expect it to be fully healed until after the season. Even with a bum left hand, Gatens is really stroking the ball well. He’s statistically one of the best 3 point shooters in the Big Ten and if Iowa has ANY sort of chance to win this one, they will need to get him some outside shots.
-
Get More Possessions. Iowa is simply not a very good offensive team. They have a weak eFG%, a poor TO%, and their FTA/FGA is below average. In fact, the only Four Factor that Iowa excels at is OREB%. And that’s the key in this game. On the road, Iowa likely won’t shoot great, they’ll turn the ball over, and they won’t get to the line and make FTs. Getting on the offensive glass, though, is completely feasible in this game and will be essential if Iowa wants to stay within striking distance of the Buckeyes. Second chance points are such a big factor to this Iowa team; it will be magnified in this matchup. Basabe and Cole will need to be all over the boards.
-
Kick the FT Trend. Iowa doesn’t get to the FT line enough and when they do, they don’t make enough. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Iowa in regards to FT in this game. First off, it’s on the road. Strike One. Secondly, Ohio State has the nation’s best Defensive FTRate. Strike Two. And finally, there will be Big Ten referees officiating the game. Strike Three. The Hawkeyes will need to get to the line, but it will be a dubious challenge against the Buckeyes.
-
Defense. Iowa’s defense and on-ball pressure was one of the biggest reasons they were able to stay in the game against Minnesota. For the Hawkeyes to have any chance to pull off the upset, their defensive intensity will have to meet or exceed the effort given last game.
PREDICTION:
Hey, last time Iowa beat the #1 team in the nation, they were lead by a first-year coach, too, right? Ok, now I’m reaching. Good news for Iowa fans, at least you have Gus Johnson doing color commentary for this one. Oh, and Iowa beats the spread. FINAL SCORE:
Iowa 59, Ohio State 77
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/basketball/mbb-iowa-at-ohio-state-previewprediction